Painter

X, is this a raise again?

Considering the recent extreme situations of $MSTR and $STRC , I suddenly had a new idea about why bitcoin:native and the US stock market are decoupling...
As shown in the chart, the point when the Nasdaq and BTC started to show exposure and become negatively correlated was August 2025, and interestingly, the issuance of STRC (MicroStrategy's perpetual preferred stock) happened right at the end of July 2025...
In other words, there is a possibility that the appearance of STRC has raised MicroStrategy's selling pressure on coins by an entire step!
The previous strategy of holding without selli

I watched Spielberg's "Close Encounters," and it felt completely different from my expectations. I initially wanted to advise everyone not to waste their time...
But on second thought, this film might not be aimed at Chinese audiences in the first place. In the United States, the narrative of the government hiding aliens is deeply ingrained, whereas in China, there is no such narrative at all.
Therefore, after watching it, I felt no waves or even thought it was absurd, which can be explained...
My understanding of contact with alien civilizations leans more towards the Dark Forest Theory, so t

These past few days, I've started digging into new projects again!
This time, I'm experimenting with using LNN (Liquid Neural Networks) for predicting market volatility, with the ultimate goal of helping my trend-following strategies dynamically manage risk exposure.
Unlike traditional neural networks and Transformer models, liquid neural networks can accomplish the same tasks with very few nodes, and can even be trained and run on my own computer.
Previously, my attempts with genetic algorithms and cockroach strategies ended in failure, but I will continue trying.
The thousands of dol

This is the ratio of the NASDAQ deviating from the 200-week moving average over the past 10 years:
It can be seen that 60%~70% is a risk threshold, and it doesn't mean that the index cannot rise when the deviation reaches this level, but rather that once the market surpasses this threshold, the rate of risk increase will begin to exceed the rate of return growth.
2021 was an extreme anomaly, with massive liquidity pushing this ratio above 100%, but afterward, every time the market briefly exceeded this threshold, the probability of a 10%~20% pullback significantly increased;
Currently, m