AxelAdlerJr

BTC is trading below STH cost basis.
$80,217 = STH break-even $77,550 = current price
Average STH is underwater and losses are now being realized:
Net Realized P/L: -$176M Losses: $366M Profits: $190M
Until $80.2K is reclaimed, bounces lack confirmation.
☕️Adler AM #175 👇

On-chain is constructive. Holders are not selling. The structure looks healthy.
But Bitcoin is falling - and you do not understand why.
The new Adler Premium Education issue breaks down exactly this: when macro has the right to override the entire on-chain picture - and how to distinguish temporary compression from a real structural breakdown.
DXY, yields, VIX - three variables that determine whether structure can express itself in price right now.
More relevant than ever. 👇

Bitcoin bounced toward $77K on Iran headlines.
But Coinbase Premium just hit −0.098 - the lowest level this month.
11 days. Zero positive readings. Zero confirmation from U.S. spot demand.
The price bounced. The capital did not.
☕️ Morning Brief #174 👇

What was happening in the Bitcoin market exactly one year ago?

Given that the yen is once again trading near the 160 per dollar zone, the risk of new FX interventions by Japanese authorities remains high. Since a significant share of Japan’s foreign exchange reserves is held in US Treasuries, large-scale sales of dollar assets could theoretically add pressure to the UST market.

Bitcoin’s bullish impulse broke.
Slow Impulse turned negative for the first time since April. 30Y Treasury yields hit 5.20%.
Momentum is fading exactly as macro pressure is rising.
Without Slow back above zero, every rally is unconfirmed.
Morning Brief #173 👇

US equities pulled back from recent highs as a selloff in Treasuries pushed yields higher, with inflation fears tied to the Middle East conflict weighing on investor sentiment.

Yields on 10-year Treasuries hit a 16-month high of 4.67%, while 30-year yields reached an 18-year high of 5.17% amid an increasingly inflationary outlook.

The network looks healthier. Short-term holders disagree.
Supply in Profit recovered: 53% -> 63%. But STH-SOPR slipped back below 1.0.
That means short-term holders are still selling at a loss.
Recovery is visible. Confirmation is not.
☕️ Morning Brief #172 👇

Today, G7 finance ministers are meeting in Paris. Among the key topics is volatility in global bond markets after a sell-off driven by rising inflation risks amid the conflict in the Middle East.

European stocks started the week lower, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment across global markets.

Global Risk On/Off Indicator
👇

The U.S. Dollar Index moved above 99 on Monday, trading near a six-week high, as rising inflation pressure linked to the Middle East conflict strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates later this year.

$82K rejected. Again.
Bitcoin failed there three times. STH-SOPR still can't hold above 1.0 - short-term holders are selling every rally.
Now oil is near $106, the Dow dropped 537 points, and rates risk staying higher for longer.
Weekly Engine #96: why this is still not a confirmed recovery. 👇