Huatai Securities: ожидается, что Федеральная резервная система приостановит снижение ставок с 1 по 5 месяц, после назначения нового председателя ФРС снизит ставки на 1-2 раза

ChaoTide TechFlow News: On January 10, according to Golden Ten Data, Huatai Securities research report stated that in December, the US added 50,000 nonfarm jobs, falling short of Bloomberg consensus expectations of 70,000, with cumulative downward revisions of 76,000 for October-November. Although the unemployment rate declined slightly, the substantial downward revisions in the previous two months caused the three-month average of private sector nonfarm job additions to fall to a low of 29,000, with structural imbalance further deteriorating. Looking ahead, we maintain the judgment that the employment market will gradually improve in the future, and focus on the “temperature difference” between economic growth and employment. We forecast that the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts from January to May, and cut rates 1-2 times after the new Fed chair takes office. December nonfarm jobs additions fell short of expectations and were concentrated in a few industries: from the employment diffusion index, December declined relative to November. Considering that recent initial jobless claims have mostly exceeded expectations, layoff headcount has declined, and the leading indicator NFIB business hiring intention continues to improve, we still expect subsequent US nonfarm job additions to rebound. Focus on the “temperature difference” between US economic growth and the employment market. From the Federal Reserve’s perspective, although employment data is relatively weak, it has not continued to deteriorate, and we expect the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts at the January meeting, emphasizing observation of subsequent data before making decisions. Therefore, we forecast that the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts from January to May, and cut rates 1-2 times after the new Fed chair takes office.