Переговоры между США и Ираном сорвались, BTC, ETH смотрят на понижение

Around 9 a.m., the 21-hour negotiations between the US and Iran in Pakistan ended in failure, and BTC and ETH will enter a daily oscillation with a downward bias. It is expected that Bitcoin will fall back to around 70,000, and Ethereum will fall back to around 2,150 (see full article for decline details).

Around 9 a.m., the 21-hour negotiations between the US and Iran in Pakistan ended in failure, and BTC and ETH will enter a daily oscillation with a downward bias. It is expected that Bitcoin will fall back to around 70,000, and Ethereum will fall back to around 2,150.

In this US-Iran negotiation, the US demanded Iran to completely abandon nuclear research and development, unconditionally open the Strait of Hormuz, and cease supporting regional resistance forces, while Iran firmly defended its uranium enrichment sovereignty, demanded the US fully lift sanctions, and provide security guarantees. The differences between the two sides are huge, and no consensus was reached.

For the crypto circle, the geopolitical situation has always been an important external variable affecting its trend. Although cryptocurrencies are often regarded by some investors as “decentralized safe-haven assets,” in today’s highly interconnected global financial markets, they still find it difficult to stand alone. After news of the US-Iran negotiation breakdown spread, the crypto market reacted quickly. The sharp decline in BTC, ETH, and other mainstream cryptocurrencies this morning is a market response to the negotiation failure.

Recently, the upward trend in the crypto market has come to an abrupt halt. From Trump’s declaration of “destroy Iran” on April 8 to suddenly announcing negotiations based on Iran’s “Ten Conditions,” Bitcoin and Ethereum started a wave of oscillating upward movement with a daily bullish candle. This indicates that the easing of Middle East tensions is actually good news for the crypto market. Bitcoin rose from 68,000 to 74,000, and Ethereum from 2,100 to 2,300, all based on expectations of easing tensions.

However, since the US-Iran negotiation broke down today, the market trend has lost the support of optimistic expectations, and the upward momentum has also disappeared. 74,000/2,300 will become the stage high, and the gains since April 8 will be retraced with the negotiation failure. Bitcoin is expected to fall back to around 70,000 in the coming days, and Ethereum is expected to fall back to around 2,150.

At the same time, due to Israel’s continuous violation of ceasefire agreements, and after the US-Iran negotiation failure, the US may attempt to exert military pressure on Iran again. If both sides engage in large-scale conflict again, or if critical facilities such as oil fields, refineries, power plants, or desalination plants are destroyed, the Middle East’s economic situation will become more severe, and the cycle of petrodollars will suffer more serious damage. This could cause the crypto market to lose some of its Middle Eastern funding sources, leading to larger declines.

However, although the US-Iran negotiations have broken down, both sides are strongly willing to de-escalate the conflict. Therefore, it is expected that the intensity of the war will not rise immediately, and instead, a phase of de-escalation will occur (the US really does not want to fight). So, the weekly trend of BTC is expected to be within the range of 72,000-68,000 on the daily chart (short-term strong support at 70,000), and ETH within 2,250-2,050 (short-term strong support at 2,150).