As of February 12, 2026, Gate market data shows that Ripple (XRP) is trading at $1.37, up a modest 0.88% over the past 24 hours, with mild volatility in the range. However, beneath this seemingly stable price, a rare "showdown" is unfolding between technical indicators and on-chain data: on the 12-hour chart, the RSI is tracing a clear bullish divergence, closely resembling the setup before the rebound in December 2025. Yet, spot market buying has plummeted 85% compared to previous days, and long-term holders have slowed their accumulation by over 60%. Drawing on Gate’s market data, this article unpacks the conflicting signals to clarify the real distribution of bullish and bearish positions for XRP in the crucial $1.34–$1.50 range, and provides quantitative reference points for XRP’s mid-term price trajectory from 2026 to 2031.
Technical Divergence: RSI Repeats Classic Pre-Rebound Pattern
Since late January 2026, XRP has formed a notable technical structure on Gate’s spot market: while price has set lower lows, the 12-hour RSI has simultaneously marked higher lows. In technical analysis, this is defined as a "bullish divergence," typically signaling waning downside momentum and easing selling pressure.
Historical patterns offer perspective. In late December 2025, XRP also exhibited this divergence on the 12-hour chart, subsequently reclaiming the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on January 2, 2026, and rallying over 28% in the following nine trading days. The current RSI reading is around 41—still in the neutral-to-weak zone—but the structural setup is strikingly similar.
XRP historical chart, source: TradingView
However, the key difference this time is the severe lack of volume confirmation. Gate’s data shows XRP’s total network trading volume over the past 24 hours at $96.37 million, near a three-month low. Historical experience suggests that technical rebounds lacking spot volume support tend to have weak follow-through.
On-Chain Evidence of 85% Drop in Buying: From Exchange Flows to Long-Term Holder Behavior
Surface-level rebound signals have failed to convince users to move assets off exchanges. According to on-chain tracking, XRP saw a net outflow of about 107 million tokens from exchanges on February 8; by February 11, this figure had plunged to roughly 16 million. This means the market-driven buying momentum—moving tokens from trading platforms to cold wallets—shrank by 85% in just three days.
Declining transaction flows, source: Glassnode
An even more concerning signal comes from long-term holders (wallets holding >155 days). As of February 1, this group was accumulating at a net rate of 337 million XRP per day; by February 11, that number had dropped to 128 million—a 62% decrease. This indicates that even as technicals flash optimism, the most cycle-savvy capital is not actively participating.
Long-term holders on the sidelines, source: Glassnode
The combination of "rising exchange balances" and "slowing long-term accumulation" provides double confirmation that the market is not in an active accumulation phase, but rather passively waiting for clearer directional signals.
What Derivatives Markets Reveal: Why Are Spot Buyers Staying Away?
To understand holders’ caution, we need to examine risk structure in the derivatives market. In the perpetual futures market, liquidation data for the next 30 days shows a pronounced bearish tilt: short liquidations total about $148 million, while longs stand at only $83 million. This suggests that strategic traders are generally taking defensive positions, hedging at rebound highs.
XRP liquidation map, source: Coinglass
Short-term liquidation maps expose even more immediate vulnerabilities. On Gate and other major spot markets, long liquidations reach $63.9 million, compared to $51 million for shorts—a 30% higher exposure for longs. This structure means that even a modest drop in XRP could trigger a cascade of leveraged long liquidations, further intensifying spot selling pressure.
Short-term XRP liquidation map, source: Coinglass
Long-term holders are acutely aware of this "crowded long" risk. Until leverage is thoroughly flushed out, even if technicals hint at a rebound, well-informed capital is unlikely to jump in. This explains why spot buying has not only failed to recover after the divergence signal, but has actually shrunk further.
Real-Time Analysis of Key XRP Price Levels
Based on Gate’s latest quotes and on-chain liquidation data as of February 12, 2026, XRP has tightened into an extremely narrow trading range:
| Item | Key Level (USD) | Technical/Positioning Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate Support | 1.34 | Densest long liquidation zone; a daily close below this level invalidates the rebound structure |
| Next Defense Line | 1.12 | January 2026 low; a break here puts the Gaussian channel target at the $1.00 psychological level |
| Immediate Resistance | 1.50 | Coincides with the 20 EMA; a litmus test for whether this rebound can become a trend reversal |
| Mid-Term Target | 1.80–1.83 | Supply zone to overcome after breaking $1.50; the 200-day moving average is also nearby |
Gate analysts believe XRP is currently in a "low-liquidity compression zone" between $1.34 and $1.50. Any breakout with volume in either direction could trigger a trend extension of at least 12%–15%. Investors should closely monitor real-time trading volume on Gate’s spot platform—if a rebound fails to push daily average volume back above $150 million, the price structure should still be considered a bearish continuation.
XRP Price analysis, source: TradingView
Medium- to Long-Term Price Forecast (2026–2031)
Any short-term analysis must be anchored in the context of long-term value ranges. Gate’s research team, drawing on on-chain cost distribution, cyclical volatility, and institutional inflow models, offers the following quantitative framework:
| Year | Lowest Price (USD) | Highest Price (USD) | Average Price (USD) | Change from Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.7298 | 1.96 | 1.37 | — |
| 2027 | 0.9871 | 2.17 | 1.67 | +21.00% |
| 2028 | 1.78 | 2.30 | 1.92 | +39.00% |
| 2029 | 1.50 | 2.96 | 2.11 | +53.00% |
| 2030 | 2.15 | 3.47 | 2.53 | +84.00% |
| 2031 | 2.91 | 4.15 | 3.00 | +118.00% |
It’s important to note that these projections are based on the assumption of continued spot ETF inflows and a gradual increase in institutional allocations. To date, cumulative net inflows into spot XRP ETFs have reached $1.23 billion, with assets under management at approximately $1.01 billion. A major bank has also disclosed an XRP ETF position of $153 million. While such structural capital cannot prevent short-term panic selling, it does provide a much stronger price floor than in 2018 or 2022.
Conclusion: Rebound Structure Intact, But Confirmation Still Pending
XRP now faces a rare "multi-layered contradiction":
- Technicals: Momentum indicators are improving, with marginally decreasing selling pressure.
- On-chain: Exchange net outflows have collapsed, long-term capital is on pause.
- Derivatives: Crowded short-term longs, dominant medium-term shorts, and weak risk appetite.
As long as XRP holds above $1.34, the technical rebound structure remains intact. However, until spot buying clearly recovers and the daily close stabilizes above $1.50, any upside should be viewed as a correction, not a reversal. Gate will continue to monitor exchange flows and liquidation map dynamics to provide users with first-hand, objective data.
