The Bitcoin market is facing a major test. As of November 24, the Bitcoin price hovered around $86,661.2, down more than 30% from the all-time high of $126,000 set in early October, marking a new seven-month low.
This sharp decline triggered over $1 billion in liquidations across the crypto derivatives market, with more than 180,000 traders affected. The Fear & Greed Index, a key market sentiment indicator, shows the market is currently in an "extreme fear" state, with the index at just 19.
01 Price Trends: Market Remains Under Pressure
Bitcoin has fallen for the fourth consecutive week, marking the longest losing streak since June 2024. If the current trend doesn’t reverse, November will be Bitcoin’s worst month since 2022.
According to Gate’s market data, the latest analysis on November 24 shows Bitcoin trading at $85,661.2, with its 24-hour gain narrowing to 1.2%. This suggests prices are stabilizing after last week’s intense volatility.
Meanwhile, other major cryptocurrencies are also under pressure. Ethereum is currently priced at $2,787.03, down 0.54% in the past 24 hours.
Tokens like SOL, BNB, and Dogecoin have also suffered heavy losses, each dropping more than 20%. However, the market saw a slight rebound on November 24, with Bitcoin briefly climbing above $88,000, Ethereum rising over 1%, and Dogecoin up more than 3%.
02 Death Cross: Technicals Deteriorate
On November 16, Bitcoin experienced its fourth "death cross" since 2023, where the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day moving average—a widely watched bearish technical signal.
Since 2015, Bitcoin has seen a total of 12 death crosses.
Analysis shows that the market’s subsequent direction varies depending on where the death cross occurs relative to price levels. In nine historical cases where the death cross did not happen at a bottom, prices continued to drop sharply five times, extending the downward trend.
However, in three cases where the death cross occurred at or near a new low, the market formed a bottom and then entered a strong rally.
Notably, this latest death cross falls into the second category—occurring at a new bottom in a downtrend. The price pattern closely matches the three historical cases that led to strong rebounds.
Historical data indicates that when a death cross happens at the bottom, the 50-day moving average typically crosses back above the 200-day moving average (a "golden cross") after about 42 trading cycles, and the price breaks the recent high after roughly 50 cycles.
03 Multiple Factors: Macro and Liquidity Pressures
Macro Liquidity Tightening
Bitcoin’s recent decline is driven by several factors. On the macro front, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have faded sharply, and the prospect of tighter liquidity has weighed on risk assets.
Internal divisions within the Fed have intensified ahead of the December policy meeting. Currently, among voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee, the split is about 4 in favor of a rate cut versus 5 against, with the latter holding a slight edge.
Although New York Fed President John Williams, the Fed’s "third-in-command," made dovish comments that pushed traders’ expectations for a December rate cut up to around 70%,
Boston Fed President Susan Collins later stated she sees no need for another rate cut in December, further increasing market uncertainty.
Institutional Capital Pullback
On the capital side, the institutional flows that previously fueled Bitcoin’s rally are showing signs of retreat. After the US election, expectations for crypto-friendly policies cooled, and a correction in tech stocks dampened sentiment. The incremental funds that drove Bitcoin past $100,000 have dried up, leaving the market without strong support.
Bitcoin spot ETF inflows have also been disappointing. According to SoSoValue tracking data, ETF outflows continued last week, with November 21 seeing the largest single-day sell-off since late February, totaling $903 million.
However, after consecutive outflows, ETF flows briefly turned positive on November 20, with $75.47 million in net inflows.
04 Market Response: Panic and Opportunity Coexist
Diverging Institutional Behavior
As the market plunged, institutional investors showed clear divergence in their strategies. On one hand, on-chain data reveals that large holders ("whales") transferred over 50,000 Bitcoins to exchanges in the past week, possibly preparing for further selling.
On the other hand, some well-known institutions are buying the dip. ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, is systematically adding to its holdings in crypto-related tech companies during the market pullback.
Last week, ARK Invest purchased shares of crypto exchange Bullish, Bitcoin miner BitMine, stablecoin issuer Circle, and online broker Robinhood.
Retail Panic Spreads
During this downturn, crypto derivatives saw $1 billion in liquidations over 24 hours, with 183,500 traders affected. As of November 24, more than 110,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours alone.
Panic quickly spread across the market, with many investors asking, "Is the bear market here?"
Options traders are buying large amounts of put options for downside protection. For contracts expiring in December 2025, there’s a significant accumulation of puts in the $80,000–$85,000 range.
05 Market Support: Key Levels and Long-Term Confidence
Key Support Levels
Gate’s analysis shows Bitcoin’s short-term support at $85,422.3, a level that was repeatedly tested and held during last week’s sell-off. Order book data indicates a large number of limit buy orders between $85,000 and $85,500.
These bids come from long-term investors and institutional funds, providing a solid price floor. Resistance is at $88,124.9, last week’s rebound high and the final technical barrier before the psychological $90,000 level.
Industry experts believe that if the $80,000 support holds, a rebound is possible, though the strength and duration of any rally remain uncertain.
If the $80,000 support is decisively broken, Bitcoin may seek a new support zone at lower levels.
Long-Term Confidence Remains
Despite short-term volatility, institutional enthusiasm for crypto remains strong. Public companies now hold over 1 million Bitcoins—a historic milestone.
This figure includes MicroStrategy’s 649,000 coins, Marathon Digital’s holdings, and other listed companies’ cumulative positions.
MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor recently posted that he "won’t yield," signaling continued accumulation of Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, a post-crash survey initiated by Bitwise’s CEO found that "buying" was the top response at over 43%, followed by "holding" at 37.6%, while only 9.5% chose "selling."
06 Trading Strategies: Finding Opportunity Amid Uncertainty
Short-Term Trading Strategies
For short-term trades, Gate analysts suggest considering Bitcoin entries near $85,422, a key support level with strong buying interest during last week’s sell-off. A stop-loss can be set at $84,000; if breached, lower support may be tested.
For Ethereum, buying in batches near the $2,763 support level is recommended. A stop-loss at $2,700 is advised; a break below confirms the failure of the consolidation range.
Asset Allocation Recommendations
For portfolio management, it’s recommended to allocate 30% to 50% of funds to major coins, with the remainder selectively invested in altcoins for higher return potential. This approach balances stability and yield, with major coins providing a solid base and altcoins offering flexible upside.
It’s worth noting that while major coins have struggled, some altcoins have surged. QKA led with a 53.84% gain, reaching $1.6774. SQUAD and KINGSHIB also rose by 38.94% and 38.85%, respectively.
However, high returns in altcoins come with high risk. These tokens lack the liquidity of Bitcoin and Ethereum, and their prices are highly volatile. Investors should strictly control position sizes, with altcoin allocations not exceeding 20% of total funds.
Outlook
Historically, a death cross at the price bottom is often less dire than it appears. Statistics show that when a death cross occurs in a bottoming zone, Bitcoin typically breaks its recent high about 50 cycles later. Contrarian investors seem to be positioning for the next rally.
Periods of extreme fear can also bring opportunity. As Warren Buffett famously said, "Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy." When retail investors panic and sell at any price, long-term investors may see an ideal buying opportunity.
