Between the evening of February 25 and the early morning of February 26 (Beijing time), the global capital markets are set for a pivotal moment as two industry heavyweights release their earnings. Circle, the issuer of the US dollar stablecoin USDC, will announce its latest financial results before the US stock market opens. Meanwhile, chip giant NVIDIA will unveil its highly anticipated quarterly earnings after the US market closes on February 25 (5:00 AM Beijing time on February 26).
At a time when macro volatility is intensifying and sentiment in the crypto market remains fragile, these simultaneous earnings reports are far from coincidental. The market is closely watching how the performance of these two companies might spill over into risk assets. Investors are evaluating the interplay between the AI capital expenditure cycle, semiconductor profit outlook, and stablecoin business growth. The financial reports from Circle and NVIDIA may serve as a crucial lens for gauging the resonance between the technology and crypto markets.
Circle Earnings: Stablecoin Breakthrough Amid Interest Rate Headwinds
As a core bridge connecting the crypto world with traditional finance (TradFi), Circle’s performance not only impacts its own stock price but also directly reflects the health of the stablecoin market.
Key financial data preview:
Market consensus suggests Circle faces significant pressure this quarter. Analysts project earnings per share at $0.35, a sharp decline from $0.64 in the third quarter. This expected drop stems from concerns over Circle’s reliance on reserve income. As the Federal Reserve moves toward rate cuts, the interest generated from assets backing USDC is shrinking, presenting a substantial macroeconomic headwind for Circle’s profitability.
USDC Market Share and Growth Drivers
From a business perspective, although USDC’s circulating supply has rebounded to around $74.7 billion, its share of the overall stablecoin market is showing signs of decline. Data indicates a decrease from 28.9% in the third quarter to roughly 27.9%, while Tether continues to dominate with nearly 70% market share.
Investors will focus on whether Circle can demonstrate growth in non-interest income. Its new partnership with prediction market Polymarket is seen as a potential catalyst, as Polymarket will migrate to native USDC, possibly boosting USDC’s market cap further. Progress on its institutional-grade Layer 1 network, Arc, is also critical—having processed over 150 million transactions during the testnet phase, the key question is whether this can translate into real-world adoption, which will be essential for Circle’s long-term growth narrative.
Market Sentiment and Stock Price Dynamics
It’s noteworthy that Circle’s stock price has pulled back significantly since its initial surge post-listing, with a considerable drop from its June 2025 peak. Meanwhile, hedge funds have built sizeable short positions, making Circle one of the most heavily shorted crypto-related stocks. Matrixport analysts point out that this high short interest creates a delicate dynamic during earnings season: with expectations already muted, any upside surprise could trigger short covering and amplify upward price volatility.
NVIDIA Earnings: AI Narrative Bellwether and Market Volatility Driver
If Circle represents the "lifeblood" (liquidity) of the crypto world, NVIDIA is the "engine" powering the current tech bull market. Its earnings are not only a litmus test for the AI industry chain but also deeply influence sentiment in the high-beta crypto market.
Earnings Expectations and Historical Patterns
NVIDIA previously guided for fourth-quarter revenue of $65 billion (plus or minus 2%), with a GAAP gross margin expected around 74.5%. While the market generally anticipates strong results, Wall Street remains wary of the "sell the news" effect. Historical data shows that in the past four quarters, NVIDIA beat expectations in three, yet its stock price often dropped the day after earnings. Options pricing suggests the stock could swing as much as 6% this week, highlighting intense bullish and bearish positioning.
Crypto Market "Backstop" Logic
Historically, NVIDIA’s earnings beats have boosted global risk appetite and improved sentiment during crypto market pullbacks. This transmission mechanism isn’t about direct capital flows, but rather the shared "AI narrative."
In today’s macro environment, crypto assets are being repriced as the highest-beta growth assets. If NVIDIA delivers an upside surprise and signals robust capital expenditure, it will reaffirm the strength of the AI hardware sector and lift confidence across the tech space. This renewed risk appetite often spills over to Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies, providing a "backstop" for market sentiment.
Resonance and Dynamics: How Will Crypto Markets Respond to Dual Earnings Surprises?
At this juncture, Circle and NVIDIA’s earnings releases on the same day align perfectly with the crypto market’s two main concerns: internal liquidity and external macro sentiment.
Can the AI Narrative Backstop Markets Again?
This depends on the quality of NVIDIA’s earnings. If NVIDIA significantly beats expectations and alleviates concerns about slowing AI capital expenditures, the "AI narrative" will once again act as a market stimulant. As discussed in Gate Plaza, with ongoing exploration of AI agents and machine-to-machine trading scenarios, digital assets like Bitcoin may even become value storage tools for the AI economy in the future. This extends the "AI backstops crypto" storyline. If NVIDIA’s stock rallies strongly after the report, it could drive global risk assets higher and help the crypto market break out of its recent consolidation range.
Can Circle Deliver a Positive Surprise?
Compared to NVIDIA, Circle’s earnings are more of a "potential landmine" or "surprise package." With short interest running high, if Circle can show enough progress in its payments business to offset interest rate headwinds and stabilize USDC’s market share, a sharp short squeeze could ensue. As of press time, crypto-related stocks are broadly up in pre-market trading, with Circle gaining over 2%. If this momentum continues after the official earnings release, it could directly boost the prices of ecosystem tokens linked to stablecoins.
As of February 25, Gate’s latest trading data shows the market is in a classic "earnings watch mode." Bitcoin is range-bound between $65,000 and $67,000, with trading volumes shrinking compared to previous days. Ethereum is barely holding the $1,900 level. In the derivatives market, funding rates remain at multi-year lows, indicating that leveraged capital is hesitant to go long ahead of earnings or to short aggressively amid high uncertainty. This suggests the market is waiting for a clear external signal to determine direction.
Conclusion
Tonight and tomorrow morning, Circle and NVIDIA will sequentially release their earnings. Circle’s results will shape the crypto world’s "blood supply" and competitive landscape, while NVIDIA’s will set the tone for broader macro sentiment.
For investors, this isn’t just about two companies’ earnings calls—it’s a critical moment to test the strength of the "AI narrative" and "stablecoin growth" theses. With short interest elevated and market sentiment fragile, any upside surprise could be magnified as a catalyst for a rebound. Conversely, disappointing results could trigger sharper volatility under the weight of dual setbacks. Regardless of the outcome, the intensity of the tech-crypto resonance will deliver a new answer in the next 24 hours.
