Gold has reached a new high again!" On September 11, the London spot gold traded around $3640, hitting a high of $3658 during the day. This marks a rise of as much as 6% in just seven trading days, setting a historical record.
Gold prices have historically broken through $3650 per ounce for the first time, with one of the main driving factors being market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates on September 17 (Wednesday). Loose monetary policy is generally seen as boosting the attractiveness of gold – this has driven gold/dollar up nearly 6% since the beginning of September.
The gold price is rising rapidly.
Recently, the gold market has shown remarkable performance. On September 9, the international gold price once reached a historical high of 3715.2 USD/oz. Since the beginning of this year, gold has cumulatively risen nearly 39%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index and Bitcoin.
As of September 11, 2025, the spot gold price in London is reported at $3640.82 per ounce, which is a rise of 0.20% compared to the previous day. The main contract for gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) closed at $3677.7 per ounce.
Domestic gold prices are also showing strong performance. The gold T+D price on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is reported at 831.5 yuan/gram, rising by 0.31%, and standing firm at the key support level of 830 yuan for the third consecutive trading day. The main futures contract for Shanghai gold closed at 835.16 yuan/gram, with an increase of 0.21%.
Multiple factors drive gold prices
The rise of gold is not accidental, but rather the result of multiple factors overlapping.
The expectation of interest rate cuts being strengthened is one of the main driving forces. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market has fully priced in the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut has also risen to around 10%.
The producer price index in the US for August rose less than expected, strengthening market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed. The decline in interest rates reduces the holding costs of gold and increases the attractiveness of non-yielding gold.
Geopolitical tensions are driving safe-haven funds towards gold. Israel launched an attack on Doha, Qatar, targeting senior Hamas leaders, which may lead to further escalation of conflicts in the Middle East.
Central banks around the world continue to increase their gold reserves. According to a report by the World Gold Council, global official gold reserves increased by 166 tons in the second quarter of this year, reaching a historical high.
Technical analysis shows strong momentum
From a technical perspective, the gold price remains above the 50-day line ($3389.4), and the bullish structure is being consolidated. Resistance is forming around $3750, and a daily closing price above this level may open the door to $3900.
In 2025, the trend of gold prices formed an upward channel, and the current trading price of gold/USD is close to the midpoint. This is usually the point of supply and demand balance.
The range of $3250 to $3440 formed in the middle of the year can be interpreted as a rectangular pattern. After the bullish breakout, the implied target of $3630 has been reached. The RSI indicator is close to forming a bearish divergence, which may lead to a correction.
Institutions are optimistic about the gold outlook.
Investment banks are raising their gold price expectations. Morgan Stanley’s latest report has increased its year-end gold price target to $3,800.
UBS expects gold prices to reach $3,700 or even higher by 2026. Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could rise to $4,000 by 2026.
The Swiss bank Lombard Odier has raised its 12-month gold price target to $3,900 per ounce. The bank stated that the backdrop of gold hitting a historic high is a narrative of increasing market risks, including inflation concerns, rising government debt, and a slowing U.S. economy.
Xia Yingying, head of the Precious Metals and New Energy Research Group at Nanhua Futures, expects that the next price target for spot gold in London is likely to rise to the 3800 USD/ounce level. Based on a medium to long-term bullish outlook on gold prices, any pullback in gold prices is still viewed as a medium to long-term buying opportunity.
Investor sentiment is optimistic
Goldman Sachs’ recent report shows that gold has become the most favored long position among investors, even surpassing the popularity of developed market stocks. The ratio of investors bullish on gold prices to those bearish has approached 8 to 1, highlighting the overwhelming optimistic sentiment in the market.
95% of surveyed central banks expect that global official gold reserves will increase over the next 12 months. Behind the shining performance of gold is the combined push of a weakening dollar, continued central bank purchases of gold, expectations of loose monetary policy, and the ongoing intensification of global political and economic uncertainties.
Investors are concerned about the "structural risks surrounding unsustainable global debt, geopolitical turmoil, and the continued depreciation of the dollar as a fiat currency," and gold is gradually being seen as the "ultimate store of value."
Future Outlook and Risk Warning
The gold market is still viewed positively in the future. Swiss private bank Lombard Odier stated that gold prices may continue to find support for the remainder of 2025. However, technical charts indicate three reasons why further rise may be limited.
First is the supply and demand equilibrium point formed by the long-term channel. Buyers may think that the rise after September is excessive, while sellers may see the historical high as an opportunity to take profits.
Secondly, the rectangular pattern target has been achieved. After the bullish breakout, the implied target of $3630 has been reached. Thirdly, the RSI indicator is close to forming a bearish divergence, which may lead to a correction - for example, towards the psychological level of $3550.
Future Outlook
The Fed’s monetary policy shift is imminent, with the market expecting a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut on September 17. Central banks around the world continue to increase their gold reserves, and the People’s Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the 10th consecutive month.
Technical analysts point out that gold prices are holding above the 50-day line (3,389.4 USD), reinforcing the bullish structure. Resistance is forming around 3,750 USD, and a daily closing price above this level may open the door to 3,900 USD.
Gold is transitioning from a safe-haven asset to a store of value tool, becoming one of the most attractive asset classes of this era.
