Weekly Report Date: November 10, 2025
Important Notice: The views and information provided are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice for any individual.
Strategy Recommendation: Bull Call Spread on BTC
Limited-Time Discount on Options Fees: https://www.gate.com/campaigns/3109
Gate Options Market Performance Review
| Token | Weekly Change | Last Week’s Volume (Oct 27–Nov 02) | This Week’s Volume (Nov 03–Nov 10) | Volume Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | −1.7% | $381.2 B | $533 B | 39.80% |
| ETH | −0.7% | $234.8 B | $311.4 B | 32.60% |
| ADA | 4.80% | $6.8B | $8.23 B | 21.00% |
| DOGE | 7.20% | $14B | $19.7 B | 40.70% |
| LTC | 25.60% | $6.49 B | $7.8 B | 20% |
| SOL | −1.0% | $43.5 B | $49.7 B | 14.25% |
| TON | 5.00% | $1.32 B | $1.19 B | -9.80% |
| XRP | 2.60% | $31.4B | $41.8 B | 33.12% |
Spot trading activity across the market has rebounded, with the 7-day average trading volume stabilizing and trending upward from its recent lows.
Bitcoin (BTC) Options Market Summary
Recently, Bitcoin broke through $106,000, continuing its rebound, but overall bullish momentum remains limited. The daily RSI (14) is around 55–60, indicating a slightly bullish short-term bias but not yet overheated. The MACD remains in a bullish crossover, suggesting short-term upside potential, but the long-term moving averages (MA50 < MA100 < MA200) still show a slightly bearish alignment, signaling the trend has not fully reversed. While trading volume and capital inflows have improved compared to previous periods, overall activity remains subdued, and the rebound may be primarily technical. In the short term, watch support at $102,000–$104,000 and resistance at $108,000–$110,000.
In the options market: The latest public data shows BTC implied volatility (IV) at 44.8%. Although this has pulled back from previous highs, it remains elevated, suggesting expectations for future price volatility to narrow.
Near-term BTC implied volatility saw a brief midweek spike, reflecting the market’s rapid response to unexpected events. However, longer-dated IV remained stable, indicating limited persistence in volatility.
In block combination trades, the most popular strategy this week was the bull calendar spread, accounting for 24.5% of trades. The largest block trade involved a 3,000 BTC combination: buying BTC-261225-140000-C and selling BTC-261225-135000-C, resulting in approximately $63,000 in net premium income.
This strategy reflects participants’ moderately bullish outlook on Bitcoin in the medium to short term, while also hedging some upside risk by selling higher strike contracts, indicating a relatively cautious view of further gains.
BTC options’ 25-Delta Skew remained negative this week, showing persistent defensive sentiment against downside risk. During the week, the skew term structure steepened sharply at one point, reflecting increased demand for downside hedges in short-term contracts.
Additionally, put option implied volatility (Put IV) was about 8.7 vol higher than call IV at one stage, but this gap narrowed to around 2 vol, indicating a significant easing of risk aversion and a temporary decline in demand for downside protection.
Bitcoin’s realized volatility (RV) held near 40%, while the volatility risk premium (VRP = IV − RV) widened to -11 vol during this week’s panic, showing that implied volatility (IV) traded at a deeper discount to realized volatility, and the overall volatility structure became more stable.
Currently, overall IV remains below RV, suggesting the market’s expectations for future volatility are still conservative and volatility is being underestimated. Against this backdrop, it may be worth considering long volatility strategies, such as long straddles, long calendar spreads, or other Vega-positive structures, to capture potential opportunities from a rebound in volatility.
Ethereum (ETH) Options Market Summary
Over the past week (November 3 – November 10), ETH price fell from around $3,610 to a low near $3,197, breaking below key support at $3,700 and consolidating weakly in the $3,350–$3,600 range. Technical indicators show the daily RSI is near oversold, and the MACD’s weak rebound has not confirmed a trend reversal. Short-term support is around $3,300–$3,350, with resistance at $3,600–$3,700. Overall, ETH is exhibiting a "breakdown and weak consolidation" pattern and remains short-term bearish. If buying interest does not emerge, lower support levels may be tested.
In the options market: The latest public data shows ETH implied volatility (IV) at about 72%. After retreating from earlier highs, IV has flattened, reflecting a stabilization in market sentiment and a cooling of expectations for major future swings.
Both near-term and longer-term IV values spiked sharply midweek before declining, indicating a more rational market response to short-term price swings.
In block combination trades, the most popular strategy this week was the bull call spread, accounting for 23.9% of trades. This reflects investors positioning for moderate upside or defensive bearish strategies at relatively low cost.
The largest block trade this week involved a 10,000 ETH bull call spread—buying ETH-281125-3700-C and selling ETH-281125-4000-C, with a total premium outlay of about $30,172. This structure indicates investors expect ETH to have limited upside and are seeking to capture a staged rebound within controlled risk.
ETH options’ 25-Delta Skew steepened significantly early in the week before gradually narrowing, reflecting a marked decline in investors’ demand for short-term downside hedges. By the weekend, the term structures diverged and flattened, indicating that while bearish sentiment has eased, overall risk appetite remains cautious.
During the week, put option implied volatility (Put IV) was at one point about 10 vol higher than call IV, but this narrowed to around 2.7 vol, showing that bearish sentiment cooled quickly and demand for hedging temporarily subsided.
Ethereum’s realized volatility (RV) remained near 80%, while the volatility risk premium (VRP = IV − RV) rose to -15 vol, indicating that short-term implied volatility (IV) was significantly below actual volatility levels. With IV still below RV, the market continues to underestimate future volatility.
In this environment, buyer-oriented volatility strategies are more advantageous. Investors may consider long volatility structures, such as long straddles, long calendar spreads, or other Vega-positive combinations, to capture potential gains from a future rise in volatility.
| Indicator | Mild | Significant | Severe | Trading Advice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRP (IV−RV) | >5 vol | >10 vol | >15 vol | Increasing opportunities for sellers |
Policy Events Overview and Market Impact
The federal government is set to reopen. As of November 10, 2025, the federal government shutdown has lasted for several weeks. The Senate recently passed a temporary funding bill to facilitate reopening. If the House approves and the President signs it, the government could resume operations soon, although some policy uncertainties remain unresolved.
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is 64%. Recent weak U.S. economic data has increased market expectations for a December Fed rate cut, but officials remain cautious and have not committed to a specific path. Meanwhile, a sharp rise in gold prices on the 10th reflects heightened risk aversion and pressure on the U.S. dollar, which may put short-term pressure on the crypto market. However, if a rate cut materializes and boosts liquidity, there is potential for a rebound in risk assets.
Weak employment and consumer data. The latest figures show sluggish job growth and layoffs, with reduced spending among lower- and middle-income households. Consumer inflation expectations have fallen to 3.2%, but concerns about unemployment and income are rising. Personal consumption expenditure growth is expected to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to around 1.9% in 2025, and could drop further to 1.2% in 2026, indicating mounting pressure on economic activity and growing downside risks.
Net capital inflows into the crypto market. As of early November 2025, the crypto market has seen overall net capital inflows. Over the past week, investment products attracted about $595 million in net inflows, with Bitcoin and Ethereum continuing to receive net inflows, though at a slower pace. This shows renewed market interest, but caution remains.
