Rick Rieder’s odds of being nominated on the prediction platform Polymarket have surged from just 3% ten days ago to 58%, making him the frontrunner. By comparison, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, previously the leading candidate, now has odds ranging from 25% to 45%. As BlackRock’s Global Head of Fixed Income, Rieder has never worked within the Federal Reserve system—a status as an "outsider" that the Trump team sees as a key advantage for driving reform at the Fed.
Changing of the Guard
The countdown to the handover of the Fed chairmanship has begun. Current Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026, and the question of who will succeed him has become one of the most closely watched macro events in global financial markets.
President Trump has completed his round of interviews, hinting that the final shortlist has been narrowed from an initial pool of 11 to a single preferred candidate. This selection process will not only shape the direction of U.S. monetary policy for years to come but will also directly impact global capital flows and risk asset prices.
Signals from Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are sending strong signals. On several platforms, Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, has seen his odds skyrocket.
According to the latest data from Polymarket, Rieder’s probability of being nominated has climbed to 58%, making him the most likely pick. On another prediction platform, Kalshi, his odds have reached 60%. This is a dramatic shift from just ten days ago, when his chances were only 3%. Meanwhile, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, who previously led the field, has seen his odds drop to between 25% and 45%.
The Candidate Field
Trump’s shortlist has now been whittled down to the final few contenders. The main candidates are Rick Rieder from BlackRock, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
Among them, Rieder and Warsh stand out as the clear frontrunners. Although Hassett was considered a strong contender early on, Trump has indicated he prefers Hassett to remain in his current role, causing his odds to fall sharply to 8%. In terms of background, Rieder and Warsh represent two distinct policy directions. Rieder, a seasoned Wall Street "bond king," is seen as more attuned to market realities, while Warsh, with experience inside the Fed system, is viewed as a more traditional choice.
Rieder’s Edge
Rieder’s rise is no accident. The 63-year-old BlackRock executive joined the firm in 2009 and now manages approximately $2.4 trillion in bond strategies, making him one of Wall Street’s most influential fixed income experts.
Unlike other candidates, Rieder has never worked within the Fed system—a status the Trump team considers a major advantage. Trump’s advisors believe Rieder would be less constrained by the Fed’s bureaucracy and better positioned to push for institutional reforms. Rieder’s views on monetary policy also closely align with Trump’s goals. He believes the current 3.5% to 3.75% interest rate range is "still too high" and advocates for lowering the federal funds rate to around 3%. This dovetails with Trump’s preference for aggressive rate cuts.
Potential Impact on the Crypto Market
A change at the helm of the Fed could have far-reaching effects on the crypto market. Different candidates imply different policy paths, and those paths directly affect market liquidity and risk appetite.
Market analysis suggests that if Rieder—viewed as more market-friendly—becomes chair, crypto market liquidity could increase by 10% to 18%, and Bitcoin could see a rebound of 8% to 18%. In contrast, if Warsh—considered more hawkish—takes the role, crypto market liquidity might decrease by 8% to 15%, with Bitcoin facing a potential decline of 6% to 14%.
This uncertainty is already influencing trading behavior. Due to the unclear future direction of Fed policy, Bitcoin trading volume has dropped by 6% week-over-week, and institutional crypto inflows have fallen by 4%.
Latest Developments in the Crypto Market
According to Gate market data, as of January 27, 2026, the crypto market is showing steady signs of recovery. Bitcoin (BTC) is currently priced at $88,662, up 0.99% over the past 24 hours, with a market cap of $1.76 trillion, accounting for 56.49% of total market share. Ethereum (ETH) has performed even more strongly, currently trading at $2,939.25, up 2.17% in 24 hours, with a market cap of $35.154 billion.
Some market analysts remain optimistic about the crypto outlook. Tom Lee, Head of Research at Fundstrat, predicts that the price of Ethereum could climb to the $7,000–$9,000 range by early 2026, and possibly reach $20,000 in the long term. Bernstein analysts are even more bullish, projecting Bitcoin could hit $150,000 in 2026, with a potential peak of $200,000 in 2027.
A Shift in Policy Cycles
The leadership change at the Fed comes at a pivotal point in the crypto market cycle. Industry insiders believe that pro-crypto policies in the U.S. could disrupt Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle. Historically, the Bitcoin market has followed a four-year pattern tied to "halving" events, which often bring new all-time highs followed by significant corrections. However, as U.S. policy becomes more supportive of cryptocurrencies, 2026 could mark an exception to this longstanding pattern.
Regardless of who ultimately becomes the next Fed chair, Trump has made it clear he wants to see rates move lower. If that goal is realized, the crypto market could be among the first to feel the impact.
Trump administration officials have indicated that the final nominee could be announced as soon as next week. Whatever the outcome, global financial markets are on edge. When asked about his candidacy, Rieder has remained cautious, emphasizing that the Fed chair must maintain "independence" and be accountable to both the nation and its people. Meanwhile, the crypto market’s tickers keep moving, with every trade pricing in the uncertainty of what’s to come. While Wall Street analysts run their forecasting models and the Fed’s boardroom chairs have barely warmed, Bitcoin’s code has already processed hundreds of thousands of block confirmations—two fundamentally different systems of trust, both awaiting the arrival of a new decision-maker at this critical moment.
