According to a report by Galaxy Research, the SEC currently faces a backlog of 91 cryptocurrency ETF applications, spanning 24 different underlying tokens, all with a final review deadline set for March 27, 2026. Among these 24 tokens, which will be the first to break through? Solana’s surging popularity, XRP’s ongoing legal uncertainty, and Litecoin’s technical purity each point to varying probabilities of approval. Drawing on Gate market data and public information, this article combines a timeline review, institutional activity analysis, and multi-scenario forecasting to provide readers with an objective and forward-looking guide.
Event Overview: 91 Applications, 24 Tokens, One Deadline
As of March 2026, the SEC’s backlog of cryptocurrency ETF applications involves 24 different underlying tokens. These applications cover a diverse range of sectors, from layer-1 blockchains (such as Solana and Avalanche) to payment protocols (XRP), meme coins (DOGE), and even oracle networks (Chainlink).
Galaxy Research notes that based on 19b-4 filings submitted by Cboe BZX, Nasdaq, and NYSE Arca, the initial 45-day review period ended on September 13, 2025, with the final decision deadline set for March 27, 2026. Unlike previous case-by-case reviews, this round may see the SEC introduce a fast-track mechanism similar to traditional ETF markets, streamlining approvals based on objective quantitative metrics such as trading volume, liquidity, and market capitalization.
Anddy Lian points out that the SEC must make final decisions on all 91 pending crypto ETF applications by March 27, covering 24 tokens, including altcoin ETFs tied to Solana and XRP. The consensus in the market is that March 27 is unlikely to be an "all or nothing" date; rather, it will likely mark the start of phased approvals.
Background and Timeline: The Evolution of the Approval Process
To grasp the significance of this deadline, it’s important to look back at how ETF approvals have evolved:
- January 2024: Spot Bitcoin ETFs are approved, ushering in the era of crypto ETFs
- July 2025: Ethereum ETFs and several altcoin ETFs are launched
- August 2025: Cboe BZX, Nasdaq, and NYSE Arca file 19b-4 forms proposing fast-track listing standards for crypto ETFs
- September 2025: Public comment period ends, initial 45-day SEC review concludes
- January 2026: Morgan Stanley submits Bitcoin and Solana ETF applications; WisdomTree withdraws its XRP ETF application
- March 27, 2026: Hard deadline for the SEC to rule on all 91 applications
This timeline clearly illustrates the shift from case-by-case reviews to a standardized regulatory framework. Galaxy Research highlights that, just as the traditional ETF market experienced explosive growth after the 6c-11 rule was adopted in 2019, crypto ETFs are at a similar inflection point. The fast-track mechanism is expected to significantly reduce both approval time and costs.
Flows and Price Dynamics
Gate Market Token Data (as of March 9, 2026)
| Token | Price (USD) | 24h Volume | Market Cap | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $67,452.8 | $870.88M | $1.41T | Neutral |
| Solana (SOL) | $83.22 | $58.23M | $47.42B | Bullish |
| XRP | $1.34 | $38.58M | $82.29B | Bearish |
| Hedera (HBAR) | $0.09518 | $92.62M | $4.12B | — |
ETF Fund Flows
According to SoSoValue data, altcoin ETF inflows over the past five months have shown significant divergence:
- Solana (SOL): Total inflows of $932.12M
- XRP: Total inflows of $1.24B, but after WisdomTree withdrew its application, XRP ETFs saw their first net outflow on January 7, 2026—about $40.8M—bringing cumulative net inflows down from $1.25B to $1.2B
- Hedera (HBAR): Canary Capital’s HBAR ETF has accumulated $91.88M in inflows
- Chainlink (LINK): Two LINK ETFs have seen combined inflows of $85.37M
Notably, the XRP ETF market is highly concentrated: following WisdomTree’s withdrawal, Grayscale is the sole XRP ETF provider with positive inflows, totaling about $1.69M.
Analyst and Institutional Dynamics
Analyst Consensus: Quantitative Standards Will Determine Approval Order
Galaxy Research, referencing fast-track standards proposed by exchanges such as Cboe, has identified 10 tokens that meet (or are about to meet) the criteria: DOGE, BCH, LTC, LINK, XLM, AVAX, SHIB, DOT, SOL, and HBAR. ADA and XRP, lacking six months of futures market trading history, are expected to qualify between September and October 2025.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas believes the approval standards "may be loose enough that most of the top 50 tokens could qualify for ETF status." The Digital Chamber and Multicoin Capital suggest quantitative requirements such as a minimum market cap of $500M and an average daily trading volume of at least $50M over the past six months.
Institutional Moves: Morgan Stanley Enters, WisdomTree Exits
In January 2026, Morgan Stanley filed Bitcoin and Solana ETF applications with the SEC, with the Solana trust featuring staking functionality. This move followed the bank’s October 2025 decision to allow financial advisors to offer crypto investments to clients, recommending a maximum 4% crypto allocation.
At the same time, WisdomTree withdrew its XRP ETF application in January 2026, citing Rule 477, signaling intensifying competition in the XRP ETF market. Remaining contenders in the XRP ETF space include Grayscale, Canary Capital, Franklin Templeton, and Bitwise.
Market Sentiment: From "News-Driven" to "Allocation-Driven"
With the surge in applications, the market’s reaction to ETF application news has become noticeably muted. After WisdomTree’s withdrawal, XRP ETFs saw their first net outflow, but Grayscale continued to record positive inflows, indicating selective institutional allocation. Solana ETFs have seen cumulative inflows of $932.12M, far outpacing HBAR’s $91.88M, reflecting a clear hierarchy in asset preference.
Assessing Narrative Validity: Quantitative Standards Replace Subjective Judgments
Three Key Insights
The "ETF Approval = Token Price Surge" Narrative No Longer Holds
The performance of listed altcoin ETFs has shown that inflows and token price appreciation no longer move in lockstep. After the WisdomTree news, XRP ETFs recorded their first net outflow, and the price dropped 1.17% in 24 hours, with market sentiment turning bearish.
"Institutional Entry = Sector Boom" Needs Reassessment
WisdomTree, a leading Bitcoin ETF provider, still chose to withdraw its XRP ETF application, highlighting that even top institutions are strategically retreating in a fiercely competitive market.
"SEC Approval = Regulatory Endorsement" Is Shifting to Quantitative Criteria
Under the new exchange proposals, approvals will be based on objective metrics: ISG membership, at least six months of futures market trading history, and an ETF holding ratio of at least 40%. This means that future approvals will be more about "automatic qualification" than "special recognition."
Industry Impact Analysis: The Era of Tiered Allocation
Institutional Capital Flow Patterns
Galaxy Research’s fast-track standards reveal a key trend: only tokens meeting quantitative criteria will be approved first. As a result, the ETF market will likely display a clear top-heavy effect, with the first 10–12 qualifying tokens absorbing most institutional capital, while others must wait for futures market maturity or ISG membership.
Regulatory Clarity Premium
Litecoin, designated as a commodity by the CFTC, became one of the first altcoins to receive spot ETF approval (Canary’s Litecoin ETF launched on Nasdaq on October 28, 2025). Despite XRP’s $1.24B in cumulative ETF inflows, regulatory uncertainty led to WisdomTree’s withdrawal.
Staking Yields as a Differentiator
Morgan Stanley’s Solana ETF application includes staking, offering investors an additional yield source. ETFs with yield-generating capabilities are expected to attract investors seeking passive income.
Multi-Scenario Evolution: Three Possible Paths After March 27
| Scenario | Trigger Conditions | Approval Probability Ranking | Projected Market Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aggressive Approval | SEC adopts fast-track proposal, batch-approving tokens that meet quantitative standards | LTC ≥ HBAR > SOL > DOT > AVAX, XRP must wait until September to qualify | Short-term capital rotation, qualifying token ETFs attract inflows; yield-bearing ETFs become popular mid-term; token price divergence intensifies |
| Cautious Phasing | SEC approves in phases, initially only tokens with six months of futures trading history | LTC > HBAR > SOL > LINK > AVAX, XRP and ADA delayed | Market sentiment dips then recovers, delayed applications seen as "buying opportunities"; regulatory clarity premium increases |
| Unexpected Delay | Citing the CLARITY Act waiting period or macro factors, most applications are postponed | None approved, only index funds pass | Altcoins face short-term pressure, but the "shoe hasn’t dropped" narrative extends the speculation cycle; capital flows back to BTC/ETH as a safe haven |
Separating Facts, Opinions, and Projections
- Facts: The SEC must rule on 91 applications by March 27; ETFs for LTC, SOL, XRP, HBAR, and others are pending review; 10 tokens including DOGE, LTC, and SOL meet fast-track quantitative standards
- Opinions: Bloomberg analysts believe approval standards are "loose enough" for most of the top 50 tokens to qualify for ETFs
- Projections: XRP and ADA are expected to qualify after meeting the six-month futures trading history requirement in September–October 2025
Conclusion
On March 27, 2026, the crypto ETF market will graduate from a "niche narrative" to a "mainstream allocation" era. Whether the SEC’s first approvals go to LTC, SOL, or HBAR, the real market drivers are no longer headlines, but the quantitative standards emphasized in Galaxy Research’s report: futures market history, ISG membership, and current ETF holding ratios.
Anddy Lian calls this SEC decision "a critical test of whether US regulators will let market demand determine product accessibility." For investors, instead of guessing "who will be approved first," it’s more important to focus on a deeper question: as approval standards shift from subjective judgment to objective metrics, which assets will qualify first, and which will be sidelined while waiting for futures markets to mature? The answer may well be found among the tokens that already meet the six-month trading history requirement—institutions are voting with real capital, and quantitative standards are steadily replacing market noise.
