Original title: “ETH Hangzhou On-Site Investigation: Ethereum Has Entered Its Middle Age, New Price High Unlikely Within Three Years”

Original author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily

At the end of Q1 2025, there is no doubt that the most disheartened crypto group is the “E Guardian”.

On one hand, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen to its lowest point in nearly five years, at just 0.02193 since May 2020; on the other hand, Ethereum’s “soul figure” - Vitalik’s recent quirky behavior of “learning to meow” like a machine dog has left many puzzled, leading to some discontent within the Ethereum community.

Amidst the current “Ethereum Dark Moment” where the price has fallen below 1800 USD, the “ETH Hangzhou” event is in full swing, with many developers and Ethereum community members actively participating in the construction of the Ethereum ecosystem in various ways. Odaily Planet Daily conducted on-site interviews with attendees of “ETH Hangzhou” to hear about their perspectives on the development of the Ethereum ecosystem.

When “the butt decides the head” has failed: 50% of people hold 10 or fewer ETH, and 40% hold 100 or fewer ETH.

At the Demo Day event in ETH Hangzhou, Odaily Planet Daily reporter Wenser conducted a rough small sample questionnaire survey of the attendees, with a total sample size of about 10 people, including:

· Only 1 person has liquidated their ETH;

· The proportion of people holding 1-10 ETH is 50% ;

· The proportion of people holding 10-100 ETH is 40%.

It is worth mentioning that @Solomon_NAHHH, who cleared out ETH, stated that he had already cleared out ETH a year ago, and now has part of his positions in SUI; @0x Benniee, who holds a small amount of ETH, believes that the Ethereum ecosystem is extremely abstract; among those holding less than 100 ETH, @ConstantinGao revealed that he holds a large number of short positions on ETH.

ETH Ecosystem Development Stage: 70% of people believe it has entered its middle age.

In a small sample survey of 10 people, there is a certain consensus on the development stage of the Ethereum ecosystem.

· 20% (2 people) believe the Ethereum ecosystem is still in its infancy;

· 70% (7 people) believe that the Ethereum ecosystem has entered its middle age;

· 10% (1 person) believes the Ethereum ecosystem has entered its senior phase.

Those who hold the first viewpoint mainly consider it from a technical route perspective, believing that the Ethereum ecosystem is still in its early stages in terms of the implementation of technical routes, with many technical routes still in the exploratory phase; in contrast, those who believe that the Ethereum ecosystem has entered its old age mainly consider it from the token economy perspective, arguing that based on the issuance time cycle of ETH and the operational stage of the tokens, the Ethereum ecosystem has indeed entered a relatively solidified old age stage.

Those who believe that the Ethereum ecosystem has entered a mid-life stage mainly look at the ecological development stage. Currently, Ethereum is relatively well-established in terms of infrastructure construction. Apart from the DeFi sector, other sub-sectors have been disproven to varying degrees; liquidity of funds and major crypto projects still regard the Ethereum mainnet or EVM environment as the main ecosystem.

Possibility of ETH price hitting a new high: No hope within 3 years, see you in the next cycle.

When asked whether “the price of ETH can break the previous historical high of nearly $4800 and set a new record within 1-2 years,” almost everyone held a pessimistic attitude, including the “E Guardian” who entered the circle in 2019 and interacted with ETH, as well as the “ETH Ecosystem Buidler” engaged in the development of Ethereum ecosystem DeFi projects.

Overall, the time points for the new highs in the market price of ETH can be divided into the following three categories:

Category One, 2-3 years or possible. Crypto KOL, Day 1 Global leader @RubyWang, crypto KOL, KiteAI CMO @0x Laughing believe that the new highs in ETH prices are mainly dependent on new asset issuance methods or new types of assets that lead the market.

The second category, starting from 5 years to see. Day 1 Global’s principal @Starzq believes that it is very difficult for ETH to reach new highs solely on its own, and only relying on the liquidity spillover from BTC or edge innovations within the Ethereum ecosystem may have a chance to achieve this. The Zhejiang University Blockchain Association @Freya believes that perhaps hope can be placed on community development or technological breakthroughs.

The third type, with an unknown timeline, mainly relies on the development of applications. @ArtistZhou, @ 33357 xyz, @WONG_SSH, @0x PhiloA and others believe that the new highs in ETH market prices depend on when the L2 that sucks up ETH will be eliminated, the implementation of technology roadmaps such as Based Rollup, and the mature applications that will wash out NFT players, GameFi players, and even DeFi players who previously bought at high positions.

In addition, @Solomon_NAHHH believes there is a possibility that the US ETH ETF could achieve a complete liquidation, taken over by Eastern powers, which may have a certain possibility of hitting a new high.

@ConstantinGao, holding a large short position in ETH, pointed out that the main reason for the unfavorable performance of ETH prices is the collapse of narratives like “digital oil” and “world computer.” Ethereum has now become a block space leasing business. After experiencing events like L2 scaling, it has not only been drained but also the cost of consumption has further decreased, leading to the market no longer recognizing the value storage function of the token. In this regard, it is completely different from BTC, which focuses on the “digital gold” concept. After abandoning its payment positioning, the market has accepted its new positioning.

In addition, he mentioned that although he does not have a positive outlook on the price performance of ETH in the short term (2 to 3 years), judging by the past development stages of the internet industry, Ethereum still has significant potential for growth. Driven by mature applications, the demand for its token consumption may experience tremendous growth, similar to the transition from the early dial-up internet phase to the short video and live streaming sales phase. At that time, the price of ETH may gradually reach new highs.

Summary: ETH is not irreplaceable, but it remains a major battleground in cryptocurrency.

Among the many young faces, I saw quite a few young faces active at the events in the ETH ecosystem. Although the price of ETH is sluggish, the ecosystem remains highly decentralized, with both seasoned investors and newcomers sticking to the Ethereum ecosystem. As for the price, we can only leave it to time to judge.

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