According to Gate News bot, Bloomberg reports that Goldman Sachs has stated that oil and gas prices may rise following the U.S. attack on Iran, although the bank’s fundamental forecast depends on whether oil supplies in the region are severely disrupted.
Analysts, including Daan Struyven, pointed out in a report that if the oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz decreases by half within a month and maintains a 10% downward trend over the next 11 months, the price of Brent crude oil will briefly surge to $110 per barrel. If Iran’s oil supply decreases by 1.75 million barrels per day, the price of Brent crude oil will peak at $90.
As the Middle East crisis escalates, the global oil market is trying to explore possible trends in energy prices. After the U.S. attacked three nuclear facilities in Iran last weekend, crude oil futures prices surged in early Asian trading, currently nearing $79 per barrel. Subsequently, Brent crude oil prices retraced some of their gains, and the market is once again focusing on whether the actual flow of crude oil has been smooth so far.
Analysts say: “The economic motivation for all parties, including the United States and China, to prevent sustained and large-scale disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will be very strong.”
They stated that despite the “downside risks to energy supply and the upside risks to energy prices that we have forecasted” having increased, the bank still believes that there will not be significant disruptions in oil circulation.
The natural gas market also faces risks. Analysts say that the price of the European benchmark futures - the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) - could rise to around 74 euros per megawatt hour, or about 25 dollars per million British thermal units, a level that once suppressed gas demand during the energy crisis in Europe in 2022.
They stated that if there is a large-scale and sustained disruption in the Strait, natural gas prices will approach 100 euros per megawatt hour. This waterway connects the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean and is an important energy corridor.
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