Uwve Issue 175: Who has been buying BTC?

In the 175th episode of Uweb’s live broadcast, hosted by Principal Jianing and joined by Teacher Chloe from Huobi Research, an in-depth discussion was conducted around “Must-see data weekly report on Web 3, interpreting the innovations in the market after the DeFi unbinding.” The guests analyzed market new trends and potential opportunities from the perspectives of coin-stock linkage, stablecoin tracks, and the integration of DeFi with TradFi, providing investors with a clear analytical framework. This episode is packed with valuable insights, combining on-chain data, macro policies, and institutional dynamics, revealing the latest developments in the Web 3 market. Below is a comprehensive summary of the discussion content to help you grasp the market pulse!

Interpretation of Web 3 Must-See Data Weekly Mr. Shao Feng gave a detailed interpretation of the “Uweb Web 3 Must-See Data Weekly” from June 30 to July 7, 2025, focusing on the impact of two major events on the market: the strong U.S. employment data broke the expectation of a rate cut in July, and the wallet aggregation behavior of the ancient whale activating 80,000 bitcoins (about $8 billion) in 2011. He uses on-chain data analysis to reveal the current market status and potential trends. Market Overview: Bitcoin prices are flat, volatility is shrinking, and it has entered a critical inflection point, similar to “The Eve of a Storm”. Ethereum and other top 100 altcoins rose slightly, and the overall market was flat. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin has a high concentration, with 26% of high-level locked chips, and it is in urgent need of a new turnover range to promote a market breakout. Impact of the Ancient Whale: The aggregation of 80,000 bitcoins (generated in 2011 at a cost of less than $1) disrupted on-chain data and created the illusion of “distribution” by long-term holders. After the actual elimination of interference, long-term coin holders have accumulated 23,000 BTC, and there is no sign of selling, and the main rising wave has not yet ended. The on-chain cutting curve is invalid due to the change of the whale UTXO, and the profit cashing data is abnormal, so it is necessary to observe the trend of the next week. The UTXO energy band shows an abnormal stacking of chips and an upward shift in support, but it is unclear whether the aggregation involves OTC trading. Global Momentum & Sentiment: Investor sentiment in Asia is picking up, leading short-term momentum; Sentiment in Europe is sluggish, confidence in the Americas is unstable, investors are divided, and there is no obvious signal of a peak in the short term. The on-chain illusion analyzer shows an average profitability of 52%, which is at a high level, and a pullback or sideways is needed to make room for the subsequent main rising wave. Short-term holders did not realize a decline in earnings, and a fall below the $98,000 breakeven line could trigger a sharp decline. Liquidity & ETF Data: The total market capitalization of stablecoins continues to rise, reflecting strong demand for coin purchases and a bullish mindset. Exchange stablecoin inflows have decreased and momentum has weakened slightly, but it still supports short-term bullishness. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $760 million this week (4 trading days, 3-day inflows, 1-day outflows), a slight decrease from last week, but institutional confidence remains. Macro Data Outlook: Strong U.S. jobs data, breaking expectations of a rate cut in July, market eyes turn to the September meeting, and liquidity improvement is hampered. The Greed & Fear Index remained at 41 (moderately fearful) and the market sentiment was strong. Next week’s CPI inflation data and employment data will dominate the market volatility and need to be watched closely. Shao Feng emphasized that the collection of giant whales is a “smoke bomb” of data, and after removing interference, the market has not been sold, the cumulative trend continues, and the bull market cycle still exists. He advises investors to be wary of the risk of short-term liquidity decline, and pay attention to next week’s on-chain data and macro indicators (such as CPI) to determine whether to break through the highs or fall below the key support level, and seize the opportunity to open positions on the left. All analyses are for academic purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. What are the possible downsides in the second half of the year? Market Status: Hot and Cold and Siege Effect President Yu Jianing: Recently, the Web 3 industry has undergone great changes, showing a state of “cold inside and hot outside”, how do you view the current market stage? Is Bitcoin brewing a new major upswing or is it nearing its end? Where are the short-term highs likely to be? Chloe: The current Web 3 market presents a siege effect of “cold inside and hot outside”, with external media and social platforms being hot, but internal trading volume and liquidity being low, and participants are slightly confused. This is not a bad thing, the industry is driven by external funding and innovation. Compliance lanes (e.g. the Genius Act, Hong Kong Stablecoin Ordinance) and RWA exploration breathe life into the market. Despite the back-and-forth of the RWA program, its compliance attempts have opened a new path for the industry, and the overall situation is positive. In the short term, policies (such as the possible passage of the Genius Act at the end of August) may push Bitcoin above $110,000, but caution is advised to be wary of the risk of a correction. Macro Policy Implications: The Merida Act and Liquidity President Yu: How do macro factors such as the Merida Act, interest rate cuts, and U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury interest rates affect the market? What are the short-term and long-term trends? Chloe: The Merida bill resolves the debt ceiling, and the August TGA balance covering will enhance liquidity, supporting bitcoin highs in the short term, but there may be a pullback in September, and it is recommended to avoid high leverage. The probability of a rate cut in July is low, and more events are needed to drive the rally. The Trump administration’s weak dollar policy and stablecoin promotion, such as the Genius Act, have strengthened dollar penetration and are long term positive for the crypto market. Fed policy is uncertain due to political factors (such as Powell’s tenure), and it is necessary to pay attention to the Treasury easing bill and Treasury repo dynamics. Institutional Entry and Compliance Channel: The Rise of New Buying Orders President Yu: Which Institutions Are Deploying Bitcoin? After the compliance channel is opened, what is the admission status of the institution? Chloe: Bitcoin buying has strengthened, and institutions are the core driver. After the repeal of SAB 121, banks can hold bitcoin in compliance with regulations, and listed companies (such as U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and South Korean stock markets) have more freedom to increase their holdings, and stock prices have risen due to “bitcoin reserves”. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and others have set up crypto departments, and DeFi projects (such as Maple Finance, MakerDAO’s Spark) provide high yields through lending and wealth management, with a scale of $3 billion, forming an “institutional version of DeFi Summer” to attract capital inflows. Stablecoins and RWA: The Breeding of Wealth Opportunities Chancellor: What special applications will stablecoins and RWA bring after the Genius Act is enacted? How does it relate to the Web 3 investment and payment scenario? Chloe: The Genius Act allows non-US institutions to issue US dollar stablecoins, similar to the offshore US dollar system, to expand penetration in high-inflation regions (such as South America and Africa). Stablecoins have high payment efficiency, combined with DeFi to provide an annualized 10%+ financial income, attracting institutional and retail investors. RWA projects help enterprises raise funds through compliance innovations (such as Hong Kong’s stablecoin ordinance), which may increase by 5-10 times in the short term, and have great potential for long-term leadership, and promote Web 3 wealth opportunities in combination with payment scenarios. Political Risk: The Uncertainty of the Midterm Elections President Yu: How do the Trump administration’s policies, macro issues, and midterm elections affect the bull and bear cycle? What is the state of the market in 2026-2027? Chloe: The 2026 midterm elections are a major risk point, and Trump’s excessive support for Web 3 could be a political target, and if policies are repealed due to partisan change, it will shake the industry. The current Republican-led crypto-friendly policies (e.g., ETFs, stablecoin bills) are driving buying, but the success of the conservative elections in Australia and Canada shows a global policy divergence. Investors need to pay attention to policy stability to avoid political risks leading to corrections, and the long-term trend still relies on compliance channels and capital inflows. DeFi Innovation: The Integration of Institutions and Payment Scenarios President Yu: What are the compliance innovations in DeFi after the repeal of SAB 12 b 1? What will change when the Trump family’s World Liberty project goes live? Chloe: After the repeal of SAB 121, DeFi has ushered in new opportunities, and institutions can participate in lending and wealth management through compliant channels. Maple Finance has partnered with investment banks to provide $3 billion in bitcoin-backed lending to publicly traded companies. Stablecoin payments combined with DeFi (such as the Plasma public chain) support small gas fee waiver and large transactions, which is suitable for cross-border payments and supply chain finance. In the future, there may be a “crypto version of the bank”, which will promote the mass adoption of DeFi and accelerate the integration of institutions and payment scenarios. What are the innovations in the market after the deregulation of DeFi Opportunities and Essence of Currency-Stock Linkage Currency-stock linkage is a hot spot in the recent combination of DeFi and traditional finance, and the core is token securitization and securities tokenization. The guest pointed out that the essence of the linkage between currency and stocks is similar to the “market maker” operation in the Crypto market, for example, Sharp Link is operated by Consensus, and the stock price rise depends on the strength of the project party and the willingness to pull the market. The cost of listing on NASDAQ is low (millions of dollars) and much lower than the listing fees on some exchanges (such as Upbit costs millions of dollars). High-quality projects can achieve compliance and liquidity through backdoor listings, but low-quality projects may choose crypto-stock linkage because they cannot afford to pay the listing fee, and there is a risk of stepping on mines. In the future, the linkage between currency and stocks may be further developed through price mapping and business empowerment, but at present, it is still mainly short-term speculation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the background and trading ability of the project party. Market Path and Compliance Advantages of Currency-Stock Linkage Currency-Stock Linkage provides a low-cost compliance path for project parties. The panelists mentioned that the NASDAQ registration system has a lower cost and is more attractive than the high listing fees of some exchanges. The project party can go public through backdoor trading, mapping the currency price and stock price, and empowering the business in the future. For example, it is a common way for companies to switch listings between A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and NASDAQ, and eventually return to A-shares. Currency-stock linkage not only reduces compliance costs, but also empowers tokens through securitization, creating liquidity and brand value. The panelists believe that this trend may bring new opportunities, but it is necessary to be vigilant about project quality and trading risks, and there may be more innovative models in the future. The participants of the coin-stock linkage and the genre of the coin-stock linkage are mainly divided into three categories: one is to purchase bitcoin through bond issuance, such as MicroStrategy; The second is to invest in the “XX Strategy” of other tokens (such as BNB Strategy, TRX Strategy), relying on the background of the project party (such as Consensus); The third is that the Crypto project is directly listed on the NASDAQ for liquidity and compliance. The guest emphasized that it is difficult for ordinary investors to grasp Bitcoin-related opportunities, because the news is changing rapidly, and “XX Strategy” needs to pay attention to the trading momentum of the project side. Nasdaq is exploring the combination of 7*24-hour trading and blockchain technology, which may eliminate the arbitrage space of currency price difference in the future and give birth to a more natural linkage model. Innovative models deserve attention, but they need to be done with caution. Future Trends of Stablecoins and DeFi Tracks Regarding stablecoins and DeFi tracks, panelists believe that their future depends on the differences between participants and offshore/onshore. Banks, technology companies, and blockchain projects are all deploying stablecoins, but the dominant forces are not yet clear. Traditional finance may have the advantage of compliance, while blockchain projects emphasize decentralization and innovation. Offshore markets (such as USD stablecoins) play differently from onshore markets (such as RMB digital currencies) in that the former is more focused on global liquidity, while the latter is subject to regulatory constraints. The guests pointed out that the difference between the landing of stablecoins lies in compliance and application scenarios, and that they may develop in a hybrid mode in the future, and it is necessary to observe the entry level of banks and technology companies and changes in regulatory policies. Conclusion This live sharing session focuses on the innovative opportunities of crypto-stock linkage and stablecoins. Crypto-stock linkage achieves compliance and liquidity through low-cost listing, but it is necessary to be vigilant against project quality and trading risks, and there may be technological innovations in the future (such as 7*24-hour trading). The stablecoin track is highly competitive, with banks, technology companies, and blockchain projects each having their own advantages, and the difference between offshore and onshore will affect the development path. The overall trend points to the deep integration of DeFi and traditional finance, where opportunities and risks coexist.