HTX DeepThink: The cooling of interest rate cut expectations may put pressure on the market, but the overall capital structure still supports the mid-term bull run.

According to Deep Tide TechFlow news, on July 17, HTX DeepThink column author and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that as of July 17, 2025, the crypto market is under the multiple effects of “high volatility - policy game - macro traction,” presenting a typical structural oscillation pattern. The implied volatility (IV) of Bitcoin options remains at 38-39%, reflecting the market’s high sensitivity to repeated inflation, delayed interest rate cut expectations, and legislative progress, with short-term capital preferring hedging and defensive strategies. The open interest (OI) of CME Bitcoin futures continues to rise, indicating that institutional investors prefer to make neutral or directional arrangements on regulated platforms; on-chain data shows that Bitcoin is currently in the “long-term holders taking profits” phase, facing pullback pressure in the short term, but the medium to long-term capital structure remains robust.

On the macro front, the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book warns that “inflation may accelerate by late summer,” cooling expectations for a rate cut in September (the probability has dropped to about 60%). Although the PPI fell in June and core PCE is moderate, the CPI year-on-year remains as high as 2.7%, and overall inflationary pressure persists. The Fed may delay the easing process, enhancing the dollar’s attractiveness and creating a phase of capital outflow pressure on the crypto market. Meanwhile, the CLARITY Act and the GENIUS Act, which are being pushed forward by the U.S. Congress, have not yet been formally passed, but have significantly boosted market confidence, propelling Bitcoin to once reach $123,000.

From the options market and volatility structure, the market is currently in a “policy uncertainty risk pricing period”, with volatility premiums rising, especially evident in contracts expiring around July 25. Investors generally adopt straddle or protective strategies to hedge against high volatility risks. On-chain data also indicates that, although some long-term holders have begun to realize profits, institutional wallets and ETF-related addresses still show continuous net inflows, with the overall funding structure supporting the fundamentals of a mid-term bull market.