HTX DeepThink: The US government shutdown has not changed the expectations for easing, and the options market is betting on Bitcoin pump.

According to Mars Finance, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that the current crypto market is influenced by three factors: macro policies, regulatory dynamics, and investor sentiment. The U.S. federal government has shut down since October 1 due to the failure to pass a funding bill, and the Senate's tenth attempt to push for temporary funding within 16 days still did not reach the 60-vote threshold. This means the government will continue to be in a shutdown, and most economic statistics will be paused. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that it will still release the September CPI on October 24 to meet the need for annual adjustments to social security. This report is the only important data before the Fed's interest rate meeting on October 28-29, and investors almost unanimously expect a further rate cut of 25 basis points at that time. Fed Chairman Powell stated that the balance sheet reduction “may come close to the end in the coming months”; he pointed out that signs such as rising repo rates indicate that liquidity is tightening, leading the market to believe that monetary policy will be further eased.

As the midterm elections approach, crypto voters are gradually becoming a key group. A survey of 800 digital asset investors shows that 64% of respondents believe the candidates' stance on encryption is “very important.” Although they are registered as Democrats, they tend to vote Republican in Congress and support easing regulations from the Biden era. The group is mainly composed of young, diverse, and college-educated individuals, with more than a third coming from the South. As a result, companies like Ripple and Coinbase held a roundtable with Senate Democrats this week to promote crypto ETF legislation; the meeting was chaired by Senator Gillibrand. Reports indicate that Republicans have introduced a bill clarifying the SEC and CFTC's authorities, while Democrats are focused on combating illegal activities in decentralized finance, and legislation may be delayed until after the 2026 elections.

The options market shows a clear bullish tendency: bullish contracts account for nearly 60%, with approximately 246,000 BTC in open positions, compared to about 165,000 BTC in bearish contracts. The open interest is close to historical highs, mainly betting on strike prices of $140,000, $200,000, and $120,000 expiring on December 26. In short-term options, the bullish contracts expiring on October 31 for $124,000 and $128,000 are leading in transactions, while the bearish contracts for $108,000 expiring on October 24 are being used for hedging. The one-week at-the-money implied volatility has risen from 30% to about 40%, but the monthly volatility increase is only about 2.5%, indicating that market expectations for the price increase are relatively orderly.

Overall, the government shutdown has led to a data vacuum, but the Fed's dovish stance and the end of balance sheet reduction have kept risk assets supported. The midterm elections and legislative uncertainty encourage institutions and retail investors to place bets in advance, with a strong bullish sentiment in the options market. However, if CPI unexpectedly rises or the shutdown further drags down the economy, short-term volatility may intensify.