Aptos: 3 factors that could push APT to break through to 3 USD

Aptos (APT) has recorded a fall of nearly 27% in the past month, even though on-chain activity of the network is rising to the sky. Despite the bleak market context and a widespread wave of liquidation, user participation on the network remains at an impressive high level.

The Aptos network is vibrant, and the token price is wobbling.

The number of active addresses per month on the Aptos blockchain has risen to the sky, from about 750,000 to over 1.8 million, before stabilizing around 1.7 million.

This strong rise shows that the demand for using the network is increasing, reinforced by the trading volume of perpetual contracts (perpetual trading) rising to the sky by 62% in just one week, according to data from DefiLlama.

Source: Nansen AIDespite that, the on-chain activity is still not strong enough to pull the price of APT tokens up. The total locked value (TVL) of Aptos remains around the 1 billion USD mark — significantly lower than the previous peak.

Reasons for the weakening price of APT

The price of APT continues to vividly reflect the weakness of the entire market, especially after a liquidation worth 2.10 billion USD that caused Bitcoin (BTC) to plummet. At the beginning of November, this token broke through the descending wedge pattern, thereby confirming the prevailing downtrend.

Technically, APT has slipped from the 3.06 USD range down to 2.60 USD, equivalent to a decline of about 27.6%. The CVD indicator still maintains a light green at 227,430 USD, reflecting weak buying power and a lack of breakout momentum.

Meanwhile, the MACD indicator shows that the selling momentum is gradually weakening, although both the buying and selling sides remain quite cautious, with no clear signs of a reversal.

Source: TradingViewIf APT can regain the 3 USD mark, the fall may temporarily halt. Conversely, a decisive breakout above 4 USD would be strong enough to change market sentiment and open up opportunities for a solid recovery. Until that happens, APT remains constrained within a falling structure on the 4-hour timeframe.

The trading volume of derivatives (Derivatives) has clearly exposed the reason behind the decline of APT. Across all APT/USD trading pairs, there are up to 6.54 million USD in leveraged Short orders opened — a testament to the prevailing pessimistic sentiment in the market.

Nevertheless, this selling pressure is somewhat balanced by 3.81 million USD in accumulated Long orders, which is only half the size of the Short side.

Source: CoinGlassAccording to data from CoinGlass, Binance is the exchange that recorded the largest short liquidation volume, reaching 1.56 million USD at the price level of 2.79 USD. This development raises an interesting question: how will liquidity (liquidity) impact the next price fluctuations of APT?

Liquidity trap around the 2.8 USD area

According to the Liquidation Heatmap, liquidity points are heavily concentrated at higher price levels compared to the current level. In particular, the 2.80 USD zone accounts for a large portion of liquidity pressure, with a total order value exceeding 1 million USD. This subtly indicates that the price may break above if the capital continues to be “sucked” into this area.

Source: CoinGlassConversely, the areas below 2.60 USD recorded lower liquidity density, implying the possibility that the price will temporarily halt before potentially falling deeper.

In summary, APT is still in a weakened state, although there have been signs of recovery from buying pressure. However, the overall market trend remains negative until the current resistance levels are transformed into solid support zones.

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