Analyst: Governor Bailey may still be the key to future rate cuts.

According to Jin10 Data on November 6th, the Bank of England today kept interest rates unchanged at 4%. Before the meeting began, traders had estimated about a 32% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. As a result, the outcome was somewhat unexpected by the market. However, looking at the voting results, the decision to hold rates steady was passed by a very narrow margin. From the voting stance, Governor Bailey clearly played a decisive role in the outcome. Deputy Governor Lombardelli, Chief Economist Piel, and committee members Mann and Green explicitly supported maintaining the tightening policy, while Deputy Governors Briden and Ramsden, along with committee members Dingle and Taylor, advocated for an immediate rate cut. This delicate balance is expected to be revisited in the December meeting—the final decision will still largely depend on Bailey’s stance.

Following the announcement, the British pound softened somewhat, but overall, there was no clear dovish signal. Policymakers prefer to wait for more data before taking further action—understandable, given that recent economic developments have provided them with some room to maneuver. However, before the December meeting, the biggest uncertainty will be the upcoming Autumn Budget Statement. The contents of this budget will play a crucial role in shaping the Bank of England’s future policy adjustments, depending on how the market reacts to fiscal policy developments.