Bitunix analyst: The "black box economy" in the US job market may become the last straw for the Fed to cut interest rates.

According to Mars Finance, on November 10, as the U.S. government shutdown enters its second month, official economic data is stalled, forcing the market to rely on private reports to piece together the economic picture. Data from ADP and Challenger indicate that the resilience of the labor market is waning, with surging layoffs, slowing hiring, and plummeting consumer confidence, all contributing to multiple signals of economic cooling. This unusual phase of a “data-less economy” is causing the market to focus more quickly on the next steps in policy. Structurally, corporate profits continue to be driven by productivity from artificial intelligence, but workers are failing to share in the dividends. The wave of layoffs in the tech and retail sectors is intensifying, and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index has hit a three-year low, with asset differentiation and class anxiety eroding the foundation of recovery. This “K-shaped economy” exacerbates the policy dilemma faced by the Fed: inflation remains sticky, yet employment is cooling rapidly. Bitunix analysts state that when the economy enters a data blind spot, decision-makers are more likely to be guided by “situational intuition.” In the absence of official indicators, the Fed is bound to rely on market signals and changes in financial conditions to assess the turning point in the cycle. When layoffs and confidence indices both decline, “interest rate cut expectations” are no longer a market fantasy, but a result that policy transmission will inevitably be forced to follow. In the coming weeks, the economic black box of the U.S. may open a new round of fluctuations for global liquidity.