Economists: U.S. initial jobless claims data did not reach a danger threshold, labor market is in the "final stage of the marathon".

According to news from 深潮 TechFlow on November 20, as reported by Jin10 data, the wave of layoffs in the United States has not shown a concerning intensification: as of the week ending October 18, the number of initial jobless claims was 232,000, which is basically flat compared to September levels. “If initial jobless claims rise to the level of 300,000 to 400,000 and remain above that level, then I would start to worry about the overall job market,” said Oren Klachkin, an economist at Nationwide Financial Markets. Klachkin and other economists believe that a recession is unlikely in the short term. “To put it metaphorically, the current labor market is like the final stages of a marathon,” Klachkin explained. “After the pandemic, we experienced a strong recovery in job growth, and now we are entering the final stage of this so-called race—showing signs of fatigue in the job market and a slowdown in growth. Given the current stage of the economic cycle, there are indeed potential risks.” While there is a risk of a collapse in the labor market, it is more likely that it will struggle to cross the finish line and achieve a recovery early next year, aided by clearer tariff policies and fiscal stimulus from tax expenditure legislation. Klachkin pointed out: “From the third-quarter corporate earnings reports, the American business community is essentially sending a relatively optimistic signal about the economy continuing into next year.”