Wu's Daily Selected Encryption News + This Week's Macroeconomic Indicators

2025-11-24 13:47:56

This week, a large amount of Token will be unlocked.

In the next 7 days, there will be single large unlocks (unlock amount greater than 5 million USD) for HYPE XPL JUP KMNO OP ZORA H SAHARA, etc.; in the next 7 days, there will be linear large unlocks (daily unlock amount greater than 1 million USD) for SOL TRUMP WLD DOGE ASTER AVAX TAO ZEC ETHFI, etc., with a total unlock value exceeding 566 million USD.

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Reuters: Bitcoin mining in China is quietly returning after a complete ban in 2021.

Bitcoin mining in China is quietly making a comeback after a comprehensive ban in 2021. According to Hashrate Index data, China's hashrate share has rebounded to the third place globally, accounting for about 14%. Individual and corporate miners are redeploying hashrate in areas with low electricity prices and surplus energy, such as Xinjiang and Sichuan, with several new projects under construction. Many miners say, “As long as electricity is cheap, everyone will mine.” CryptoQuant estimates that about 15%-20% of global Bitcoin hashrate currently comes from China.

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3.QCP: BTC shows signs of stabilization for now, and the year-end options betting remains bullish.

QCP analysis points out that after experiencing a pullback of about 30%, BTC shows initial signs of rebound. The dovish comments from the Federal Reserve have raised the expectation of a rate cut in December to 75%, and market liquidity may be shifting. Derivatives data show that investors have not abandoned bullish bets, with open interest in year-end call options still higher than that in put options, concentrated in the 85K to 200K range. At the same time, negative funding rates suggest that long leverage has been cleaned out, and short-term downside risks have diminished. The trend in the coming days may depend on U.S. retail data, core PCE, and ETF fund flow performance.

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The Financial Intelligence Unit of South Korea will impose institutional and individual penalties on multiple cryptocurrency trading platforms.

The Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) of South Korea is expected to implement institutional and individual penalties on exchanges such as Korbit, Gopax, Bithumb, and Coinone, following Dunamu. The penalties will be carried out in a “first in, first out” manner, with Bithumb potentially being the last to be penalized due to additional on-site inspections. Industry insiders expect that the violations across exchanges are roughly the same, and the severity of the penalties will be similar to that of Dunamu. It is difficult for the FIU to complete all penalties this year, and most are expected to be finalized in the first half of next year. Previously, the FIU imposed a fine of 35.2 billion won (approximately 24.35 million USD) on Upbit operator Dunamu.

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Binance is suspected of pursuing the recovery of illegal arbitrage activities related to the Alpha airdrop.

Binance is suspected to have initiated a recovery of the illegal arbitrage activities in the Alpha airdrop, with multiple user accounts frozen, one of which has a frozen amount of 14,457 USDT and shows a debt of 10,525.77 USDT. Screenshots show that Binance claims the user “engaged in illegal operations on the Alpha platform and improperly obtained the airdrop.” Binance co-founder He Yi responded, stating that “ordinary users are not affected.”

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Wu's macro indicators and analysis for this week: Federal Reserve Economic Conditions Beige Book, European Central Bank Meeting Minutes

Abstract

The minutes of last week's Federal Reserve meeting showed that the interest rate decision in December may be in a deadlock, and Nvidia's earnings report exceeded expectations; this week, the focus is on the Federal Reserve's publication of the Beige Book on economic conditions and the European Central Bank's release of the minutes from the October monetary policy meeting.

Weekly Review

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's October meeting show significant divisions among officials on whether further rate cuts should be made in December. “Many” officials believe that a rate cut in December would be inappropriate, while “a few” officials think that a rate cut might be suitable. Nick Timiraos pointed out that the minutes reinforced the gradually emerging sentiment after the meeting: there may currently be a slight majority of officials leaning toward keeping interest rates unchanged in December, leading to a highly contentious policy decision. Additionally, the minutes indicate that some participants mentioned the risk of overvaluation of financial assets, with several officials emphasizing that if the market suddenly reassesses the prospects for artificial intelligence-related technologies, stock prices could face pressures of disorderly declines.

NVIDIA announced its Q3 results, with revenue and data center income exceeding expectations.

For the week ending November 15, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 220,000, compared to an expected 230,000. The unemployment rate in the U.S. for September was 4.4%, with an expectation of 4.30%, and the previous value was 4.30%, marking the highest since October 2021. The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the U.S. for September increased by 119,000, against an expectation of 50,000, with the previous value revised from 22,000 to -4,000, representing the largest increase since April.

The University of Michigan in the United States announced that the final consumer confidence index for November dropped to 51.0, mainly reflecting the deterioration of financial conditions due to high price pressures and weakening incomes. In contrast, consumer expectations for the future have slightly improved. The one-year expectation fell slightly to 4.5%, marking the third consecutive month of decline; the long-term expectation slowed from 3.9% to 3.4%, but still remains above the level in January of this year.

Key Events & Indicators This Week

November 24

The White House ends the Russia-Ukraine conflict, new plan draft disclosed at 28 points (to be determined)

Trump plans to sign an AI new policy at the White House - Genesis Plan (pending)

November 25

U.S. September PPI YoY (21:30)

November 26

The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 22 is ( million ) (21:30)

November 27

The Federal Reserve released the Beige Book on economic conditions (03:00)

The European Central Bank released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting for October (20:30)

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