Bitunix Analyst: Geopolitical tensions are rising on two fronts, BTC is constrained by 91000, and market risk premiums are increasing.

According to Mars Finance, on November 28, Russian President Putin responded to the US-Ukraine peace proposal, stating that the relevant text “could serve as a basis for future agreements,” but emphasized that if conditions cannot be met, Russian forces will continue military operations, reiterating that the legitimacy of the current Ukrainian regime and territorial issues remain core differences. On the other hand, US President Trump announced that the anti-drug operations against Venezuela will soon expand from maritime to land, while also significantly increasing military deployment in the Caribbean, leading to a notable rise in regional tensions. From a macro perspective, the prospects for Russian-Ukrainian talks remain highly uncertain, with negotiations and military advancements occurring simultaneously, indicating that geopolitical risks have not materially cooled; at the same time, the US's military and sanction actions in Latin America further elevate uncertainties in energy, shipping, and credit markets. Geopolitics is exhibiting a “dual mainline heating” pattern, with the global risk pricing logic shifting towards structural risks being disturbed across multiple regions. In the crypto market, the resurgence of risk aversion is placing short-term pressure on high-volatility assets. Bitcoin is currently constrained by technical pressure around 91000, with short-term bulls and bears repeatedly range-bound at high levels; the support focus is on the 89000–88000 range, and if this range is breached, it may further test the mid-term bull-bear dividing line around 86000. Observing the leverage structure, there remains a dense liquidation risk in the upper pressure zone, while the lower zone is mainly where defensive capital is congregated, indicating that the market has yet to form a consistent direction. Bitunix analysts state: the current crypto market is in a phase of “repricing macro geopolitical risks + technical high-level pressure + monetary easing + labor slowdown,” with capital flows showing clear conservative and short-term characteristics. In the near future, the core driver of market trends will more depend on whether geopolitical events show substantial cooling and whether risk capital is willing to re-engage with volatility, rather than a short-term breakthrough of a single technical pattern.