Hotcoin Research｜Has this bull run ended? An in-depth analysis of the "changes" and "constants" in the four-year cycle of Bitcoin.

1. Introduction: The “Change and Constancy” of Cyclical Laws

Bitcoin undergoes a halving approximately every four years, a mechanism that also shapes the cyclical fluctuations of the crypto market. However, since the completion of the fourth halving in April 2024, the performance of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market has shown new characteristics unlike before. Historically, halving often signals that a bear market has bottomed out, followed by a new bull market peak for Bitcoin within about a year. Yet this cycle from 2024 to 2025 has left many investors perplexed — although Bitcoin's price has indeed reached an all-time high, the market has not exhibited the kind of fervor seen in the past; instead, the upward momentum appears slow and mild, with reduced volatility, leading many to question whether the four-year cycle has seemingly failed.

What are the different characteristics in this cycle, and which aspects of the four-year cycle theory are still valid? What factors have led to the changes in the rhythm of this cycle? Under the influence of a rapidly changing macro environment, institutional capital influx, and the fading sentiment of retail investors, where is Bitcoin heading in the future? This article will analyze the market performance of the current Bitcoin halving cycle, explore the changes and causes of its cyclical patterns, and forecast the price trends for the end of 2025 and 2026, attempting to provide investors with a comprehensive and insightful analysis.

2. Performance and Characteristics of This Round of Bitcoin Halving Cycle

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On April 19, 2024, Bitcoin will complete its fourth block reward halving, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. According to past cycles, halvings often occur at the end of bear markets, followed by a market turnaround within 12 to 18 months. However, the developments in 2024-2025 exhibit both the aspect of cycle repetition and distinct “different” characteristics.

Price Trend Overview: New highs emerge, but the increase is slow. On the day of the halving, Bitcoin closed at around $64,000. In the following months, prices fluctuated, but overall maintained an upward trajectory: in mid-November 2024, Bitcoin broke through the $90,000 mark; driven by the conclusion of the U.S. presidential election and a series of positive news, on December 5, 2024, Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 milestone, setting a new high at that time. Entering 2025, the price of Bitcoin continued to rise: on October 6, 2025, it reached a historical peak of around $126,270. This peak appeared about 18 months after the halving and seemingly mirrored past cycles. However, this round of increase has been relatively slow and gentle, lacking the explosive enthusiasm seen in the later stages of previous cycles. From the lowest point of the bear market in 2022, (~$15,000), the increase to Bitcoin's peak was about 7–8 times, while from the 2024 halving at (~$64,000), it grew by less than two times. In contrast, during the 2017 bull market, Bitcoin surged nearly 20 times from the bear market bottom, and in the 2021 bull market, it increased by about 3.5 times. Clearly, the slope and magnitude of this price rise have significantly converged, exhibiting characteristics of a “slow bull” market.

Market Sentiment and Volatility: Frenzy Absent, Volatility Easing. While prices are hitting new highs, the market has not seen the kind of frenzied enthusiasm that characterized previous peaks. The bull markets at the end of 2017 and 2021 were marked by widespread discussions about cryptocurrencies and a flourishing of altcoins. This time, even with Bitcoin's price breaking $100K, public sentiment remains relatively calm, not triggering a buying frenzy like in 2017 or the widespread discussions around NFTs and Dogecoin in 2021. On-chain data indicates that during this bull market, funds have primarily concentrated on major currencies like Bitcoin, with market share once approaching 60%. Many speculative altcoins have shown weak rebounds. Market volatility has also significantly decreased, with annual volatility gradually declining from earlier highs exceeding 140%; during the correction in the second half of 2025, while Bitcoin's short-term volatility may have increased, overall it still lacks the dramatic rollercoaster fluctuations of the past, with the entire upward trend appearing restrained and slow.

The multi-band mild upward trend lacks a “final surge.” It is worth noting that the bull market peak in 2024-2025 will not be a one-time bubble burst, but will reach in stages. From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, Bitcoin will encounter resistance and consolidate multiple times around $100K, before reaching new highs: In January, MicroStrategy announced a substantial purchase of coins which drove the price to $107K; After the August peak, under the influence of the US inflation (PPI) data falling short of expectations, Bitcoin quickly dropped from $124K back below $118K. Until early October, the market's final sprint pushed it up to $126K, but there was no appearance of the kind of “last madness” seen in previous cycles: just as the peak appeared, continuous selling pressure followed, causing a further decline of nearly 30% within six weeks, touching a seven-month low of about $89,000 in mid-November. It can be said that this round of the bull market saw prices reaching new highs but lacked explosive acceleration; the entire rising phase seemed calm, while the subsequent pullback came fast and furious.

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In summary, the market performance price after this round of halving has indeed reached a new high, and the general time window of the cycle aligns with expectations. However, the texture of the market and the experience of market participants have clearly changed from the past. Because of this, more and more investors are beginning to question whether Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle is no longer valid. So, which parts of the traditional cycle theory still hold true, and which aspects are changing?

Is the three to four-year cycle theory still valid?

Despite the apparent chaos on the surface, a deeper analysis reveals that the core logic of Bitcoin's “four-year cycle” has not completely vanished. The supply and demand changes brought by the halving continue to support price increases in the long term, and the cyclical mentality of investors' greed and fear still recurs periodically, albeit the performance in this cycle is more moderate.

The long-term effects of supply contraction are still present. The halving of Bitcoin block rewards every four years means that new supply continues to decrease, which is the fundamental logic behind each bull market. Even though the total supply of Bitcoin is now close to its limit at 94%, the marginal decrease in supply with each halving is shrinking, but the market expectation of “scarcity” still exists. In past cycles, the belief in long-term bullishness after halving was evident, and holding coins without selling became the choice for many investors. The same is true this time: the halving in April 2024 will reduce new coin issuance from 900 coins per day to 450 coins, and despite the price's violent fluctuations, most long-term holders still choose to continue holding their coins, without a large sell-off due to relatively limited price increases. This indicates that the tightening effect of supply contraction on the market is still at work, albeit the force of supply-demand rebalancing pushing prices up is weaker than before.

On-chain cyclical indicators continue to sway to the rhythm. The behavior of Bitcoin investors still shows a typical “accumulation - profit-taking” cycle, and many on-chain indicators have continued to exhibit cyclical fluctuations. For example, the MVRV (Market Value/Realized Value Ratio) often falls below 1 at the end of a bear market and rises to an overheated range during a bull market. In the 2024 bull market, MVRV peaked at around 2.8, then fell back below 2 during the adjustment in early 2025. SOPR=1 is seen as a dividing line between bull and bear markets; below 1 indicates that most people are selling at a loss, while above 1 means that the majority of trades are profit-taking. During the bull market phase of 2024–2025, this indicator remained above 1 most of the time, consistent with historical bull market scenarios. Similarly, the RHODL indicator, which measures the ratio of short-term to long-term holders’ funds, also reached a cyclical high in this round of 2025 RHODL, suggesting that the market structure is entering the later stages and showing signs of a top. Overall, typical on-chain indicators such as MVRV, SOPR, and RHODL continue to operate according to their inherent cycles. Although the absolute levels of these values have changed, the cycle of investor greed-fear emotions is still depicted on-chain in a similar trajectory.

Historical data: Returns are diminishing but the trend remains intact. From a more macro perspective, the diminishing peak returns in each cycle are an inevitable phenomenon following the expansion of market size and do not mean the disappearance of cycles. Historically, the peak return rates indeed show a decline: in 2013, the relative peak increased by about 20 times compared to the previous cycle, in 2017 it increased by about 20 times (relative to the end of 2013 prices), while in 2021 it only increased by about 3.5 times compared to the 2017 high. In this cycle, from the peak of $69,000 in 2021 to $125,000 in 2025, it has only increased by about 80% (0.8 times). The marginal convergence of return rates is normal: as the market size grows, the marginal driving force of new funds weakens, so the diminishing increase is not evidence of cycle inefficacy but rather a natural result of a mature market.

Summary: The underlying driving forces of the traditional four-year cycle (supply contraction, investor behavior patterns) are still at play in this round, with the halving continuing to bring about a supply-demand inflection point. The market still follows the cyclical rhythm of “fear-greed.” However, at the same time, a series of new factors are interfering with and rewriting the “surface form” of the cycle's performance, making the external rhythm of the cycle difficult to grasp.

IV. The Truth of Cycle Imbalance: Surge of Variables and Fragmentation of Narratives

If the intrinsic logic of the halving cycle still exists, why is the current market so difficult to understand? The fundamental reason is that the single rhythm that dominated the market in the past (halving-driven) has now been disrupted by multiple forces. Multiple factors interact, weaving together a complex new pattern.

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1. Structural impact of ETFs and institutional funds. Starting in 2024, Bitcoin spot ETFs have been approved and listed in the United States, introducing a continuous influx of institutional funds that have changed the market's previous rules dominated by retail and leveraged funds, bringing massive incremental capital to the market. As of October 2025, the total assets held by Bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. have reached $176 billion. The entry of institutional funds has not only driven up prices but also improved market stability: data shows that the average entry cost for ETF investors is around $89,000, which has become an effective support level for the market. However, when market sentiment reverses, a large amount of ETF positions can turn into selling pressure, leading to unprecedented rapid liquidity shocks. Since late October 2025, with the emergence of macro headwinds, institutional funds have been withdrawing on a large scale. Since October 10, about $3.7 billion has flowed out of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, with $2.3 billion occurring in November. It is evident that the market structure in the ETF era is “more stable yet more fragile”: under a slow bull market, volatility decreases, but once key support (such as the average cost of $89K) is lost, the cascading decline is more severe.

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2. Fragmentation of narratives and acceleration of hot topic rotation. In the previous bull market from 2020 to 2021, the market formed a sustained main story around DeFi and NFTs, facilitating an orderly flow of funds from Bitcoin to higher-risk assets. However, this round of market hotspots presents characteristics of being fragmented and short-lived. The rapid rotation of narratives has led to high-frequency switching of funds, making it difficult to remain in a certain sector for a long time, breaking the traditional correlation of “Bitcoin leading the altcoins' rally.” Looking back at 2023–2025, hot topics emerge one after another, but lack a strong overarching narrative throughout the process.

End of 2023 - Beginning of 2024: The approval expectations for Bitcoin ETFs ignite the market, followed by a surge in Bitcoin Ordinals inscriptions.

Mid-2024: The Solana ecosystem rises strongly, and some meme coins (like Dogecoin) experience a brief popularity;

Late 2024 - Early 2025: AI concepts begin to intersperse with hype (AI Meme, AI Agent, etc. take turns becoming topics);

In 2025: InfoFi, Binance Meme, new public chains, x402, and other niche trends will emerge, but their duration will be limited.

The rapid rotation of sectors means that funds are frequently chasing short-term hotspots, lacking accumulation, resulting in the altcoin sector failing to experience a comprehensive explosion. Many small and medium-sized coins peaked and fell early, while Bitcoin, although not experiencing significant gains, has consistently held a dominant market capitalization share. This “fragmented market” leads to a lack of widespread enthusiasm in the later stages of the bull market. Therefore, this round of bull market peaks appears under the steady rise of Bitcoin itself, rather than accompanied by a surge across the entire crypto ecosystem, making it relatively “quiet.”

3. The self-fulfilling cycle cashes in early. As the “four-year halving cycle” becomes widely recognized, the behavior of market participants begins to change the rhythm of the cycle itself. Everyone knows that prices will rise after a halving, so they position themselves in advance, selling off once prices reach a certain level. Many seasoned players have positioned early in this bull market and realized profits sooner than usual. At the same time, large players such as ETF holders, market makers, and miners adjust their strategies based on cycle signals: as prices approach the “theoretical high point,” they collectively reduce their positions to hedge, exacerbating selling pressure in the market. The bull market may be artificially “suffocated” before it truly goes wild, leading to cycle peaks that are reached earlier and lower than historical patterns.

4. Macroeconomic and Policy Variables: A Mixed External Indicator. Compared to the past, the impact of regulatory and political environments, represented by Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical risks, on the crypto market is unprecedentedly significant in this cycle, becoming an important variable that disrupts the cycle. After Trump took office, a series of policies favorable to Bitcoin and the crypto industry were implemented, but the pace did not meet expectations. The market is betting on a new round of easing by the end of 2024, which will generally benefit crypto assets. However, entering the second half of 2025, the macroeconomic winds change abruptly: fluctuating U.S. inflation data and an uncertain economic outlook lead to repeated expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. In particular, in October 2025, U.S.-China trade tariff friction triggered a stock market crash, causing the market to begin doubting whether the Federal Reserve would slow down its rate cuts. The uncertainty of interest rate prospects puts overall pressure on risk assets, and Bitcoin also adjusts in response to risk-averse sentiment.

5. The dual impact of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT). Since 2024, a new phenomenon has emerged where more and more institutions and publicly listed companies are incorporating cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin into their balance sheets, forming Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT). Large companies like MicroStrategy continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings as company reserves; even many small companies unrelated to the industry have announced purchases of cryptocurrencies to enhance their market value. These institutional holders have provided continuous buying pressure during the bull market, acting as a “reservoir,” and their active allocation has helped the market rise. However, DAT also carries risks: most of these companies have built positions at high prices, and once prices drop significantly, their assets may suffer from unrealized losses, potentially facing investor pressure or even being forced to reduce holdings. Although there has not yet been a large-scale sell-off, the presence of DAT holders adds an extra layer of concern to the market regarding price bottoms. The rise of DAT is a new element in this cycle; it strengthens Bitcoin's “digital gold” attribute but also means that cyclical volatility is more closely linked to traditional finance.

In summary, multiple variables such as ETF/institutional funds, fragmented narratives, expected reflexivity, macro policies, and DAT are jointly shaping this “anomalous” cycle of 2024-2025, for which we need a more macro and complex perspective. Simply applying past cyclical patterns may not be sufficient to address the current situation; we need to understand the driving factors behind the cycles and the new changes in market structure.

V. Outlook and Conclusion

As 2025 comes to a close, Bitcoin stands at a critical crossroads after experiencing a rapid pullback: is this the end of the current bull market, the beginning of a bear market, or a consolidation phase in preparation for the next upward move? In this regard, there are significant divergences in market opinions. Looking ahead to December 2025 and into 2026, we need to consider both cyclical patterns and the impact of new variables, and reference multiple viewpoints to form rational expectations.

Cycle Perspective: The endpoint of the bull market has been identified, and signs of a bear market are emerging? Analysts from the cyclical perspective believe that based on classic four-year cycle projections, the historical peak of $126K in October 2025 is highly likely to be the summit of this bull market. The market is expected to enter a prolonged adjustment period until the next halving around 2028, which may bring about a new round of significant bull runs. Considering that this peak lacks a frenzied bubble, the decline may be somewhat moderate. Some also argue that this bear market could be characterized by a “slow decline over a long period” rather than a waterfall-style crash. This is due to institutional funds enhancing market resilience; for example, after dropping to the $50K-$60K range, the market may enter a prolonged consolidation, using time to exchange for space to complete the bear market. There are also views suggesting that the traditional four-year model is no longer applicable, and that the bear market began six months ago, currently being in the later stage of the bear market. In general, qualitative analysis of the cycle leans towards: the decline starting in Q4 2025 marks the turning point between bull and bear, with the main trend in 2026 likely to be weak, but the decline and pace may be milder compared to historical bear markets, with the possibility of prolonged bottoming.

Macroeconomic Perspective: Policy easing may serve as a buffer, and risk assets still hold potential. From a macro perspective, the environment for Bitcoin in 2026 may be much friendlier than in 2022–2023. Major global central banks are expected to end their tightening cycles in 2024–2025, with the Federal Reserve anticipated to start a rate-cutting cycle by the end of 2025. The market currently assigns about an 85% probability to a 25bp rate cut in December, with expectations of multiple rate cuts in 2026. Low interest rates and ample liquidity are favorable for anti-inflation assets like Bitcoin, meaning that even if the cycle enters a downturn, macro easing is expected to prevent steep price declines. If this assessment is correct, 2026 may witness a “spring in the bear market”: as interest rate cuts take effect and the economy stabilizes, risk appetite may recover, leading a portion of incremental funds back into the crypto space, bringing a phase of rebound to the market. A possible scenario is that Bitcoin forms a U-shaped or L-shaped bottom in 2026: continuing to consolidate in the first half of the year, and gradually recovering in the second half under the effects of rate cuts. On the macro level, potential risks must be heeded: if the global economy falls into a severe recession or geopolitical tensions escalate, the benefits of rate cuts may be offset by risk-averse sentiments, leading to volatile movements in Bitcoin's price. Overall, the expectation of easing brings hope for 2026, but the path to market reversal may be tortuous and fluctuating.

Market Structure Perspective: Institutional Games and Rational Pricing Become the Norm. After experiencing 2024-2025, the structure of market participants has changed significantly, which will also affect the trends in 2026. An increase in the proportion of institutional funds means that future price fluctuations will be more driven by fundamentals and data, with short-term emotional impacts relatively weakened. The ETF holding cost (approximately $89K) will become an important technical level: if the price continues to stay below this cost line, it may trigger further outflows from ETF funds, suppressing the height of any rebound; conversely, once the market stabilizes and rebounds above this line, a new round of funds may enter the market. Regarding Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), a divergence may occur in 2026: some Bitcoin treasury companies may be forced to reduce their holdings if their stock prices are sluggish or their finances are under pressure, but it cannot be ruled out that more companies will take advantage of the dip to incorporate Bitcoin into their asset reserves, leading to a situation of mutual competition. Miners, as long-term sellers, will also influence the bottom with their production costs (estimated in the range of $40K-$50K): if prices fall below cash costs for too long, miners may reduce output or shut down, which will shrink supply and help establish a bottom. It can be seen that the Bitcoin market in 2026 will be more mature and rational, which does not mean a lack of trading opportunities; it simply means that the dramatic wealth gains and losses will be harder to reproduce.

However, many top institutions still have great confidence in the long-term prospects of Bitcoin. ARK Invest reiterated its vision of $1.5 million by 2030, and long-term optimism provides belief support for the market. But in the short to medium term, investors are more concerned about the actual path in 2026. 2026 may be a test of patience.

Conclusion

In summary, the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has not truly failed, but is undergoing a transformation. The market of 2024–2025 tells us that the halving supply shock is still in effect, with an invisible hand driving the long-term trend; however, the entry of institutional funds, the intervention of the macro environment, and changes in investor expectations have collectively shaped a more complex and unpredictable new cycle. Yet, we also see the rise of rational forces, advancements in infrastructure, and the accumulation of long-term value.

For crypto investors, this means upgrading their cognition and strategies: embracing data-driven analysis, embracing long-term value investment, and embracing structural opportunities. More importantly, it is about rationally responding to cycles: staying calm during the euphoria of a bull market and maintaining conviction during the gloom of a bear market. After all, Bitcoin has gone through several cycles and continues to reach new highs, with its underlying value and network effects only increasing. The cycles may be extending, and the amplitudes may be converging, but the long-term upward direction remains unchanged. Each round of adjustment is a survival of the fittest, allowing truly valuable assets to solidify; each innovation will give birth to new growth points, enabling the industry to continue evolving.

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