After shorting ETH and making a profit of 580,000 USD, why do I still feel optimistic about the market?

Taiki Maeda closed his position after earning $578,000 in two months by shorting Ethereum, arguing that the market is in the second month of a 3-6 month bear market and recommends that investors prioritize preserving their principal and focus on stablecoin mining and airdrop strategies. This article is from the Taiki Maeda podcast and is compiled, compiled and written by TechFlow. (Synopsis: Analysts: Ethereum is seriously undervalued, and most models believe that the value should be more than $4,000) (Background supplement: South Korea's largest crypto VC says Ethereum is worth $4,700, how is it calculated?) Summary of key points In just two months of bear trading, Taiki Maeda made $578,000 by shorting. In this podcast, he provides an in-depth analysis of the underlying trends in the cryptocurrency market in the coming months and advises investors to prioritize preserving their principal rather than chasing high yields. In addition, he also shared the stablecoin and airdrop mining strategies he is participating in, providing the audience with more practical investment ideas. Summary of Brilliant Views I've been shorting ETH for two months. I had shorted $1 million of ETH around $4150 and made some profit; Later, an additional $1.5 million was placed at $3,387. My total earnings over the past two months have been about $578,000. Why did I choose to take profits at this time? I still think the price of ETH may fall further, but my short target is ETH to $3000. Why was I bearish on ETH before? If the altcoin market has “collapsed”, the impact will be transmitted to ETH, as the altcoin's downturn cannot support ETH at a valuation of more than $500 billion. I think ETH is flawed, and unless things change, in the next 5 to 10 years, as a cryptocurrency investor, you can completely ignore ETH as an investment target. If you can overcome the psychological barrier of not considering investing in ETH, I believe it will make your decision easier while lowering your stress levels and possibly even extending your life expectancy. I don't think we're going to have a 12-month bear market, but more likely to be in month 2 of a 3-6 month bear market, which is my optimistic judgment for the market. On November 17, I mentioned that the market may be entering the (denial) phase of denial. The market is expected to experience another wave of declines, which may occur this week or two months from now, after which the market will begin to form a range, eventually ushering in a better market environment in 2026. Altcoins will lose any meaning because the fair value of these assets is almost zero. The market is trying to find the fair value of ETH, and the price may stabilize around $2500. The Ponzi effect, which used to push up the price of ETH, is now fading. If ETH falls below $3,000, it could drag Bitcoin down along with it. The biggest risk for most people is that they can't leave the market, and being able to control their investment impulses is an advantage. The current cryptocurrency market is more of a “loser's game” where most people just keep losing money, so the best way to win is not to participate. The current market environment is Hardmode (Hard Mode) and Player vs Player (PVP) modes, and the best strategy may be to maintain a cash position and accumulate funds. It's time to slow down, accumulate quality assets, and focus on airdrop mining (airdrop farm). Even if you have recently suffered a loss, don't give up easily, stick to it and believe in yourself. Close my ETH short position Taiki Maeda: Short Ethereum (ETH) and altcoin (altcoins) in the past two months, making a profit of more than $570,000. In this video, I'll share my thoughts on the current market and why I think ETH and altcoins are still very, very tough. I have closed the short position of ETH. I've been shorting ETH for two months. I had shorted $1 million of ETH around $4150 and made some profit; Later, an additional $1.5 million was placed at $3,387. At that time, my position was (P&L) about $268,000 and closed last Friday. That puts my total earnings over the past two months at about $578,000. Also, as a player focused on yield and airdrop mining, I'm also working on Variational, a perpetual contract platform that I think has a lot of potential. So why did I choose to take profits at this time? The main reason is that I still think that the price of ETH may fall further, which I will elaborate on later. But when I started shorting ETH around $4150, my goal was to wait for it to fall below $3000. Now, it did fall below that level, and I think I've caught the most profitable part of the wave. Shorting ETH and some altcoins has been really easy over the past two months; You only need to hold short orders, not only to earn capital fees, but also to enjoy the benefits brought by the price drop. However, now I feel that the risk and reward of the market have become balanced, so I decided to reduce the position, slow down the pace of operation, stay on the sidelines, and enter the mode of preserving the principal. Taiki Maeda: I don't mean to be picky, I don't have any problem with the Ethereum mainnet, I like to use the ETH mainnet and L2s, ETH does do a lot of good things, but as an asset, I do think it has some fundamental flaws. Unless things change, as a cryptocurrency investor, you can completely ignore ETH as an investment target in the next 5 to 10 years. It's okay to go short or long ETH as a trading tool, but from a long-term investment perspective, ETH doesn't really have a tenable investment logic. The market performance over the past 5 years has proven that ETH continues to perform below expectations. Apart from the so-called “hopefulness” (Hopium) and the “placebo effect” (Copium), there is no strong reason to change the trajectory of ETH's performance as an asset. I compare buying ETH to the experience of touching a hot stove as a child, and you think: “Wow, it hurts, I blistered, I'll never touch a hot stove again”. Through this experience, you learn not to touch the hot stove again. And ETH is like that hot stove, but people always go back and touch it again and again because they feel “this is Ethereum and I have to hold it”. In fact, no one is forcing you to have ETH. A lot of people seem to think that ETH is an indispensable asset in cryptocurrency, but I don't think so. If you can overcome the psychological barrier of not considering investing in ETH, I believe it will make your decision easier while lowering your stress levels and possibly even extending your life expectancy. Why Bearish ETH Taiki Maeda: I think the current market performance is basically in line with expectations. Even if you are bullish on ETH, it is necessary to understand the bearish view, because if you only focus on bullish information, you may be able to take measures when the market turns.