Last Champion Signal Caller Murad: 116 Reasons Why the Bull Market Will Come in 2026

Compiled & Translated by: TechFlow

Guest: Murad

Podcast Source: MustStopMurad

Original Title: 116 Reasons why Crypto BULL MARKET is NOT OVER

Broadcast Date: November 27, 2025

Key Takeaways

Remember Murad, the king of calls from the last cycle? The one who proposed the Meme Supercycle theory.

Now he’s back.

In this podcast, Murad shares 116 bullish reasons, data analyses, and on-chain signals, all suggesting the crypto bull market may continue until 2026.

Murad believes this market cycle could break the traditional four-year pattern and last even longer.

Highlights

Bitcoin may rise parabolically in the future, reaching highs of $150,000–$200,000.

ETF holders have extremely strong long-term confidence in Bitcoin.

The Bitcoin bull market is not over and will last until 2026.

The stablecoin market is in a supercycle.

Most recent selling came from traders and short-term holders.

He disagrees with the idea that market cycles last only four years; this cycle may extend to four and a half or even five years, possibly lasting until 2026.

Liquidations on the upside (shorting) are significantly higher than on the downside (longing), and there are more short positions than long ones.

None of the 30 traditional Bitcoin cycle top signals have been triggered, indicating the market has not yet hit a peak region.

The 2025 market trend, including current price volatility, may just be a consolidation phase, laying the foundation for the next rally.

The max pain point for Bitcoin options in late November and December is $102,000 and $99,000, far above current market prices.

Bitcoin bottomed near the ETF cost basis range (~$79,000–$82,000), which also matches the ETFs’ realized price.

Additionally, $80,200 (just below the recent low) is considered Bitcoin’s true market average price. Several price indicators overlap in the $79,000–$83,000 range, including ETF cost basis, realized price, and market average price. Such price overlap is typically seen as a support area.

A further analysis of Bitcoin’s realized price distribution shows the $83,000–$85,000 range is also a key support/resistance flip zone.

Podcast Content

Analysis of the Recent BTC Crash

The first question to address: Why did Bitcoin (BTC) crash from $125,000 to $80,000?

First, a segment of investors who believe in the four-year cycle theory sold off heavily, adding downward pressure. At the same time, a prolonged U.S. government shutdown exceeded market expectations, heightening macroeconomic uncertainty. The shutdown caused funding stress in the repo market, and a minor stock market drop also negatively impacted BTC prices.

Additionally, some smaller digital reserve companies and early Bitcoin holders sold due to contagion effects. To a lesser extent, some so-called BTC whales were dissatisfied with the latest BTC Core update and engaged in “protest selling.” These factors together caused the atypically rapid six-week price drop from $125,000 to $80,000.

Nevertheless, I will use 116 reasons and charts to prove that the Bitcoin bull market is not over and is expected to last until 2026.

116 Reasons Supporting the BTC Bull Market Until 2026

Technical Analysis & Price Structure (TA)

The recent 36% drop is not unprecedented. If you look at all pullbacks in this cycle, this one is the fastest, sharpest, and largest. But we saw a 32% pullback in early 2025 and a 33% pullback in mid-2024. So, relative to other dips this cycle, the current 36% is not that out of the ordinary.

The 3-day chart printed a bullish hammer, typically a reversal pattern. We need to watch the next two or three weeks to see if a bottom forms here, but this specific 3-day candlestick is bullish.

We are still in a pattern of consecutive higher lows. From a higher timeframe perspective, assuming $80,005 is a local bottom, BTC is technically still making higher lows.

BTC just tested a two-week demand zone; we are essentially at support.

On the monthly timeframe, we are in a long-term ascending parallel channel starting in 2023, and we are still on the diagonal support line—essentially a bullish structure. This is a slow and steady bull market cycle, but the structure is still intact.

On the logarithmic scale, there is also a long-term ascending parallel channel, with diagonal support dating back to 2013. Technically, this structure is still intact, and we just tested its lower bound.

There’s another diagonal that acted as resistance in early 2021, late 2021, and early 2024. We broke through at the end of 2024, tested it as support in early 2025, and are now testing it as support again, which may just be another confirmation of a resistance-to-support flip.

Momentum & Oversold Indicators

Weekly RSI is the lowest since the FDX crash. The only other times the weekly RSI was this low were the 2018 bear market bottom, the COVID bottom, and the 2022 3AC/Luna crash. We are currently around COVID levels, and this is the lowest weekly RSI since 2023. If you match these weekly RSI levels with the chart, you’ll find this typically coincides with late bear market bottoms or sharp selloffs like COVID.

Daily RSI is at its lowest in two and a half years; the last time we were here was summer 2023. Stats show when BTC daily RSI drops below 21, the forward returns look favorable.

Another metric is the distance to the power law, which is now at a “buy zone” level.

If you connect all pullback lows this cycle, you get a perfect diagonal support. Someone predicted the bottom at $84,000 when BTC was at $95,000, and we eventually stopped at around $80,500.

BTC’s 1D, 2D, and 3D MACD are at historic lows.

The last three times the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day MA in this cycle, it was a great buying opportunity. Historically, this leads to a positive return more than 60% of the time.

Interestingly, if you look at all times BTC traded more than 3.5 standard deviations below its 200-day MA, the only previous times were the November 2018 bear market bottom and the March 2020 COVID crash.

At -4 standard deviations, this only happened during the COVID crash. We hit similar levels on November 21, an event with less than 1% historical probability—extremely rare and dramatic, indicating high fear.

The LeaC indicator on the 3-day chart just gave its first buy signal since the FTX crash, which usually only happens in bear markets or at bottoms.

Total crypto market cap is at the 200 EMA.

Total crypto market cap is also at both horizontal and diagonal support.

On-Chain Analysis & Capitulation Signs

Most recent selling was not from long-term holders and/or miners but from traders and short-term holders.

The percentage of short-term holders in profit is at a five-year low, not seen since 2019.

Short-term holder supply is at a historic low.

Short-term holder realized profit/loss ratio is also at a five-year low, indicating full-on capitulation, especially from short-term holders and traders.

Short-term holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is starting to enter a buy signal zone.

Realized losses are at their highest since the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank collapse, another capitulation signal.

The Puell Multiple is at a discount level (Puell Multiple = current miner revenue / average over past 365 days), typically associated with mid-term bottoms.

Recent on-chain data shows the largest-ever exchange outflows. Looking back at the last four similar events, such flows typically mark the start of a bull market or the end of a bear market. Bullish price action often follows in the succeeding weeks or months.

Additionally, the on-chain Realized Net Profit and Loss (Realized Net Profit and Loss) metric has dropped to its lowest since the FDX collapse, suggesting market sentiment has likely bottomed, paving the way for a rebound.

SOPR is preparing for an accumulation breakout. So far this cycle, it has not reached levels associated with cycle tops.

SOPR remains in a bull cycle structure. Since 2023, it has never entered a typical bear market region, always bouncing near the 1 level.

Stablecoins & Derivatives Market

The stablecoin market is in a supercycle, having expanded continuously over the past three years. This is bullish, as more stablecoins mean more dry powder for investors to buy BTC and ETH on dips.

Stablecoin Supply Ratio (Stablecoin Supply Ratio) is at its largest gap since 2022, further showing potential buying power.

The SSR oscillator is at its lowest since 2017.

Bitfinex BTCUSD longs are in the buy zone, a state that has coincided with many mid-cycle bottoms this cycle. Bitfinex whales are often considered “smart money” and have a history of accurately timing the market.

Stablecoin market dominance is at levels that coincide with BTC cycle bottoms. USDT and USDC market share has spiked, typically reflecting investor fear. Looking at previous spikes, the market was at a local mid-cycle bottom each time.

In recent weeks, the market saw the largest long liquidations since the FTX crash, usually seen as a “capitulation signal,” indicating leveraged positions have been wiped out.

In terms of liquidation distribution, there are currently more liquidations on the upside (shorts) than the downside (longs).

According to CoinGlass, there are more short positions than long positions.

The long/short ratio is 0.93, indicating the market is in a state of extreme fear.

Whale Activity & Institutional Behavior

Reportedly, an “OG” whale who sold $1.2 billion in BTC over recent weeks is finally done selling.

There are also rumors that Tether sent $1 billion directly from its treasury to a Bitfinex address, possibly for BTC purchases.

Some funds suffered major losses on October 10. If they need to sell BTC or ETH now, it’s more forced selling than voluntary.

The Bgeometrics Demand Index is in the buy zone; the last time this happened was September 2024, also at a mid-cycle bottom.

On-chain dynamic NVT (Network Value to Transactions) and NVTS (NVT Signal) are both showing severe oversold conditions, historically associated with mid-cycle bottoms.

The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is at 10/100, the lowest of this cycle, indicating extreme fear.

Social media sentiment is also extremely bearish, with many KOLs on CT (CryptoTwitter) sharing very bearish BTC charts.

There are numerous bearish videos on YouTube.

Large numbers of bearish tweets, articles, and blog posts are appearing.

Looking at traditional Bitcoin cycle top signals, none of the 30 have been triggered, meaning the market has not reached a top.

Price Patterns & ETF Flows

Last week, the CME Bitcoin futures $91,000 gap was filled.

The CME Ethereum futures $2,800 gap was also filled.

From a technical perspective, there is a “Domed House and Three Peaks” (Domed House and Three Peaks) pattern, usually a corrective structure that is often followed by a new bullish wave.

Some believe that the 2025 market, including current price swings, may just be a consolidation phase before the next leg up. Another noteworthy pattern is the “Four Bases and Parabola,” and the market may currently be in the middle of the fourth base. If this plays out, BTC could rise parabolically to $150,000–$200,000.

Binance’s BTC-to-stablecoin reserve ratio is at a historic low, seen as a strong bullish signal.

Historically, after the 2019 U.S. government shutdown ended, BTC bottomed within four days. This year’s shutdown ended in mid-November, and if the $80,500 low on November 21 is the bottom, the timing is very similar (the ninth day after reopening).

In the Bitcoin options market, put buying dominates.

At the same time, Put Skew (Put Skew) continues to rise, reflecting extreme market fear. Put implied volatility (Put IV) is also much higher than call implied volatility (Call IV).

Notably, this week is also a record for IBIT (the world’s largest BTC ETF) put option volume.

The max pain point for BTC options in late November and December is $102,000 and $99,000, far above current prices.

ETH’s max pain point for options in June next year is $4,300.

November 21 was the highest trading volume day in IBIT history, further confirming the capitulation narrative. Historically, capitulation is accompanied by extremely high volume—a process of rebalancing forces between buyers and sellers.

Not only was IBIT’s volume at a record, but the combined volume of all BTC ETFs was also the highest ever.

BTC bottomed near the ETF cost basis range (~$79,000 to $82,000), matching the ETFs’ realized price.

Moreover, $80,200 (just below the recent low) is seen as the real market average price for BTC. Multiple price indicators overlap in the $79,000–$83,000 range—ETF cost basis, realized price, and market average price—typically a support area.

A deeper look at realized price distribution shows $83,000–$85,000 is also a key support/resistance flip zone. Thus, BTC is likely to find a mid-term bottom in this range.

November 21 was also the highest-ever trading day for Hyperliquid BTC perpetuals, echoing the spike in ETF volume and suggesting the market may have gone through a mid-term capitulation. Capitulation usually signals seller exhaustion and may mark the first signs of demand returning.

Currently, 98% of ETF assets under management (AUM) are held by diamond hands, primarily for long-term holding—not short-term trading or speculation. Even after a 36% drop, 98% of ETF AUM remains unsold, showing ETF holders’ long-term conviction in Bitcoin.

The proportion of BTC supply held by ETFs continues to rise. Over the past two years, this has grown from 3% to 7.1%, and may reach 15%, 20%, or even 25% in the future. This indicates the Bitcoin market is undergoing an “IPO moment,” where early OGs gradually exit and passive ETF inflows continue to accumulate. The fiat system’s monetary supply far exceeds the number of BTC held by OGs. By definition, BTC supply is limited, while fiat and ETF buying power is nearly limitless.

ETH is seeing a similar trend. Over the past few years, the percentage of ETH held by ETFs has steadily increased, regardless of price volatility, reflecting institutional investors’ long-term confidence.

Market Indicator Analysis

On November 21, Binance and Coinbase trading volume even surpassed October 10, which was already a highly active trading day. This suggests the market may have fully capitulated.

On Binance and Coinbase, BTC order books are showing bullishness for the first time in weeks, at least in the short term—a pattern also seen at the April 2025 BTC bottom.

Funding rates turned negative for the first time in weeks, indicating continued fear, with many investors shorting and expecting further declines.

BTC was trading at a discount on Coinbase for the past few weeks, putting continuous pressure on price. Since November 21, sentiment has eased and price has normalized. The Coinbase discount seems to have bottomed and is returning to neutral, another signal that BTC may be nearing a mid-term bottom.

BTC’s RSI relative to gold has dropped to bear market lows. Historically, this also occurred during the 2020 COVID crash, and the 2018 and 2015 global market bottoms, as well as during the 3AC, Luna, and FTX collapses. If you believe the BTC-gold gap will eventually close, current conditions support a bullish case.

Open interest (OI) just saw its biggest wipeout of the cycle, dropping from $37B to $29B—the fastest since the FTX crash.

Altcoin open interest (OI) also saw a major flush on October 10, with most asset bubbles burst.

DAT’s net asset value (mNav) has fallen to 1 or just above. I see this as bullish, since the perceived bubble parts of the market have been cleared.

Some previously overvalued assets, like MSTR’s mNav, are back to FTX crash levels, which historically coincided with mid-cycle bottoms.

Similarly, Metaplanet’s mNav dropped from 23 to 0.95, suggesting a return to rationality. Yet, Meta Planet is still borrowing against its BTC holdings to buy more, showing continued underlying demand.

ETH’s mNav also dropped significantly, further confirming the bubble has deflated. A low mNav is not a bearish reason. Some think this will force DATs to sell BTC/ETH to buy back shares, but from a game theory standpoint, those wanting to lead the sector know that short-term actions harm long-term reputation. They prefer to win by holding long-term.

The BTC lending industry is still early, but is developing with MSTR’s push. I believe this trend will eventually go parabolic, allowing MSTR to accumulate BTC more sustainably.

BTC’s social risk indicator is zero, indicating retail investors have not entered en masse. Some think this is due to a lack of retail capital, but I believe it’s the reason we haven’t seen a parabolic bull market yet. Historically, this is triggered by massive retail entry, which hasn’t happened this cycle, suggesting the cycle is mainly driven by DAT and institutions. I believe retail will return in greater force, so holding now is wise.

Macro & Political Factors

At the macro level, the Fed has started cutting rates, though inflation is still above the 2% target. Much of this cycle’s low volatility and slow pace is due to an extremely tight macro environment—the most challenging in BTC history—and a major reason for sluggish performance. The cycle began with a 5.5% interest rate, still above 4%, while previous crypto cycles had rates between 0% and 2.5%. Even in this tight environment, BTC rose from $15,000 to $125,000—a notable achievement.

The probability of a December rate cut has jumped from 30% last week to 81%, which is usually bullish for risk assets like BTC.

S&P 500 daily volume hit its highest since April last week. Historically, such spikes in volume coincide with local or mid-term market bottoms. This matters because for BTC to rally further, ideally stocks should also be trending up.

NASDAQ 100 daily volume also hit its highest since April. Several meetings on November 21 discussed this date as a potential mid-term bottom; such volume spikes often mark bottoms.

S&P 500 weekly volume was the third highest since 2022.

NASDAQ 100 weekly volume was likewise the third highest since 2022.

NASDAQ 100 found support at the 100-day MA and saw a bullish MACD crossover.

S&P 500 put option volume hit its second-highest ever. Historically, one month later, the price is always up.

Last week, S&P 500 gapped up over 1% but closed negative. In 86% of cases, this leads to a price increase three weeks to a month later.

The market is in a special environment. For four weeks, the VIX has risen, but S&P 500 is within 5% of its all-time high. Historically, six months later, prices rise 80% of the time, and after one year, 93%.

SPX RSI fell below 35 for the first time in seven months. Historically, after this, prices rise 93% in three months, 85% in six months, 78% in a year.

When SPX first drops below the 50-day MA, historically, prices rise 71% of the time after three, six, and nine months.

For NASDAQ, when the McClellan Oscillator drops below 62 (a market breadth indicator), prices usually rise one week to one month later.

AAI bull-bear index is below -12; the last three times this happened, prices rose 100% after two, three, six, nine, and twelve months.

On November 21, SPXU (3x inverse S&P 500 ETF) traded over $1 billion. Every time this happened, prices rose a month later.

Last week, the proportion of oversold stocks increased significantly, usually marking a local or mid-term bottom.

S&P 500 call/put ratio was above 0.7 for two consecutive days. Prices always rose two months later in such cases.

BTC price is highly correlated with global M2 money supply growth. In 2017 and 2021, BTC’s rapid rallies coincided with parabolic M2 growth. This cycle’s slow BTC rise matches a mild M2 trend. If M2 growth accelerates, BTC may see another rally. Historically, “market bubbles” last longer than people expect. Comparing today’s market with the 1920s boom, late 1970s gold mania, the Japanese asset bubble, and the dot-com bubble, plus the NASDAQ 100 since October 2022, there is still upside potential.

The S&P 500 has never topped globally with ISM Manufacturing Index below 50. The current ISM is about 48, suggesting the business cycle may enter expansion, further boosting stocks and risk assets like BTC.

Mega 7 indicators show resistance is turning into support. If you use Mega 7 as a market barometer, there’s no abnormal signal. Since 2015, there have been many retests of support four months after breaking new highs; the current market is in a similar pattern. So the market is not abnormal or bearish—at least, it’s still healthy.

BTC price is correlated with global M2 YoY growth. In 2017 and 2021, rapid BTC rallies were closely tied to parabolic M2 growth; this cycle’s slow rally matches stable M2 growth. If M2 accelerates, BTC and the whole crypto market may see another rapid rally. Early signs suggest M2 is gaining momentum, but an acceleration is key for a parabolic price move.

If the money supply keeps growing, BTC may catch up and rally further.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is a key crypto driver and is at a major resistance level, which has acted as both resistance and support since 2015. From 2015–2020, it acted mainly as resistance; from 2022–2024, as support. Early 2025 saw DXY break below this range and is now retesting it from below. Typically, DXY at resistance is the ideal time to buy risk assets like crypto.

The Fed plans to end quantitative tightening (QT) in December 2025, which is seen as bullish for risk assets like BTC. Although the policy won’t take immediate effect, quantitative easing (QE) generally boosts crypto prices, while QT can lead to bear markets. In 2013, when the Fed expanded its balance sheet, crypto performed strongly; in 2018, during the balance sheet reduction, crypto fell sharply. The 2020–2021 rapid expansion coincided with the BTC bull market, while the 2022 reduction coincided with bear markets in stocks and crypto.

Many analysts predict some form of QE or stealth QE will return in 2026, with the Fed expanding its balance sheet again. While the scale may not match the post-COVID period, the policy is still seen as positive. Historically, after the last QT announcement, the market went through a “QT-QE transition flush”—BTC first dropped, then found support around $6,000 (ignoring the COVID crash), and as QT slowed and QE began, BTC rallied again.

There’s a theory that the Fed announcing the end of QT could cause a similar “QT-QE transition flush.” The market may chop for a while, but once any QE starts, BTC may surge again.

At the higher political and administrative level, the US government is now fully supporting Bitcoin, crypto, ETFs, and stablecoins—arguably the most pro-crypto government in history. This is expected to continue, providing long-term tailwinds for the crypto market.

The Trump administration aims to spur economic growth to reduce debt and criticizes the Fed for being too tight; overall, it favors looser policy.

The Trump administration also strongly supports the AI (AI) industry, calling it a US strategic priority. For example, the US launched the Genesis Mission, a plan to advance AI, seen as urgent and important as the Manhattan Project.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent has suggested loosening banking regulations to increase lending to key industries, possibly prepping for more rate cuts and higher money supply. He stresses the importance of easing regulations and lower capital rules, echoed by the OCC (OCC) chief.

The Trump administration aims to lower housing costs and unlock trillions in home equity, turning this wealth into economic activity—a top White House priority.

The Trump family’s interests align closely with this; they have major investments in crypto, including the Trump meme coin and DeFi (DeFi) projects.

The Trump administration is also discussing $2,000 stimulus checks for everyone, especially lower- and middle-income groups. Looking back at 2020, even $500–$600 checks had a big impact on asset prices. If enacted, $2,000 checks would be very bullish for asset prices, especially crypto. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this could take the form of tax rebates, but either way, it would be very positive for the market.

China is taking steps to end deflationary pressure, which has weighed on its economy for years. Historically, high Chinese economic stress readings coincide with some form of monetary easing.

Japan has announced a $135 billion stimulus plan, likely to further boost global market liquidity and asset prices.

Conclusion & Risks

While there are many bullish signals, we must also watch for potential risks. The four main risks facing the market now are:

The Mega 7 AI stock bubble could burst suddenly

BTC whales could increase their selling

A strong dollar could pressure risk assets

The business cycle could reverse and liquidity could worsen

I do not agree that market cycles are only four years; I believe this cycle could last four and a half or even five years, possibly running until 2026.