Google executive rakes in millions overnight through insider trading

Original Title: Google Executive Rakes in Millions Overnight Through Insider Trading

Author: Liu Kaiwen

Source:

Reposted from: Mars Finance

The hottest Polymarket event this week was undoubtedly yesterday’s sensational bet: “Who will be the most searched person on Google in 2025?” Since the market opened, Pope Leo XIV had consistently held the top spot, with his probability hovering around 50%. Meanwhile, global celebrities like Trump, Taylor Swift, and Elon Musk dominated the market narrative—this was supposed to be a contest among “famous people.”

Most traders never paid much attention to the options at the bottom of the market with almost zero weight: Mikey Madison, Andy Byron, d4vd… Their presence seemed only to add flavor to the odds table; nobody actually considered them likely winners.

The “Foolish Whale” Who Went Against the Grain

A week ago, while everyone else focused on the fluctuations among the celebrity picks, one address (0xafEe) quietly bought up massive positions in “d4vd = YES” at rock-bottom prices. In prediction markets, price equals probability—and at that time, d4vd’s odds were not just low, they were virtually negligible.

To outsiders, this looked like a meaningless “lottery ticket” position: for options with near-zero long-term probability, even a rise to 10% would yield dozens of times in returns. The trader only invested $20,000 in this position, despite having a historical trading volume close to $10 million, making the “lottery ticket” theory even more plausible.

But the truly bizarre move happened a week later.

With the exact release time of Google’s trending chart still unknown, this trader suddenly began building enormous positions the day before. But instead of buying “YES” on the popular names, he went all-in on “NO” for them—aggressively shorting their chances.

Pope Leo XIV, Trump, Taylor Swift, New York’s new mayor… every “likely winner” in the market was denied with millions in real money.

This kind of reckless, price-insensitive action made no sense for a whale and didn’t even seem like normal investing. Some began to notice this contrarian whale, but most dismissed him as just a “dumb money” joke.

A Jaw-Dropping Market Reversal

Then, within hours of his trades, Google suddenly released its annual trending chart. As soon as the rankings were announced, the entire market was stunned—the winner wasn’t the Pope, Trump, or any of the popular picks, but that name with long odds and little research: d4vd.

The market exploded. In seconds, d4vd’s probability shot from the bottom of the chart straight to 99.9%, and all other options went to zero. While people were still trying to figure out if Google’s system had glitched, some noticed: that “reckless” whale had made over $1 million in a single day.

His “d4vd = YES” bet won, returning nearly 20x. All his “NO” bets against the big names also won.

Scrolling further, it was discovered he’d also gone all-in on a nearly identical market, “Top 5 Most Googled People of 2025,” and swept all ten positions, investing nearly $500,000 and netting $292,000 in profit. He’d also participated in seven markets on the Gemini new version launch date, investing over $1 million and profiting every time.

In other words, when it comes to Google-related bets, he never seemed to lose.

More Frightening Than Insider Trading: The “Rewriter”

As people began to attribute this to a Google insider exploiting information asymmetry for profit, deeper on-chain tracing led to even more disturbing revelations. Analysis showed the trader’s address is adorableraccoon.eth, and according to on-chain records, he staked over $15 million of ETH on Aave before November 4.

Over $15 million in on-chain assets—clearly not the kind of wealth an ordinary Google employee would have. More and more evidence suggests this is not just a regular engineer, but someone deeply embedded in Google’s core, perhaps even with decision-making power—a top executive.

That raises an even more dangerous question: What if he not only knew the results in advance, but could manipulate them?

Google’s annual trending chart isn’t determined solely by total searches, but relies on a proprietary algorithm highly sensitive to search spikes. Theoretically, if you know the algorithm’s parameters, weights, and thresholds, you could easily push a name up the ranking. For a truly empowered Google executive, making a name skyrocket to the top isn’t out of reach. Under this framework, the prediction market isn’t a tool to forecast the future at all, but rather a secret arbitrage device for those with the power to manufacture the future.

If this wealthy Google exec really can tweak the algorithm, then every Google-related prediction market isn’t just a channel for him to profit from information asymmetry. If he chooses, he can “fine-tune” the timeline like he tweaks the algorithm, pushing reality in the direction most favorable to himself.

Conclusion

For the first time, someone with core decision-making power publicly demonstrated that he can turn prediction markets from “platforms for monetizing information gaps” into “tools for rewriting reality.”

Prediction markets have always been seen as mechanisms for reverse truth-seeking, driven by collective wisdom. In this incident, for the first time, they were proven to be open to manipulation by people with system-level access—who can alter the course of events themselves.

He’s not just betting on the future—he’s betting on the future he can create.