Bernstein: The Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Has Ended! The Institutional Era Begins, "Extended Bull Market"—BTC to Reach $200,000 by 2027

Wall Street investment bank Bernstein points out that the long-dominant “four-year cycle” that has governed the rhythm of Bitcoin’s market ups and downs is now no longer applicable. Bitcoin is expected to rise to $150,000 in 2026 and officially reach the peak of this bull cycle in 2027, with the price hitting $200,000. In the longer term, the potential price ceiling for BTC could reach $1,000,000 by 2033.

(Prior context: MicroStrategy spends $960 million to buy 10,624 Bitcoins, total holdings surpass 660,000! MSTR up 2% pre-market.) (Background: Jensen Huang personally explains Bitcoin! BTC is an “energy conversion currency” that can be transmitted anywhere.)

Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at asset management giant VanEck, shared the latest research memo from Wall Street investment bank Bernstein on X on December 8. Bernstein clearly states that the “four-year cycle” that has long dominated Bitcoin’s market rhythm is now obsolete. The firm believes that Bitcoin is entering an “extended bull market cycle” driven by strong institutional demand, marking a structural shift in market momentum.

Bernstein: "In view of recent market correction, we believe, the Bitcoin cycle has broken the 4-year pattern (cycle peaking every 4 years) and is now in an elongated bull-cycle with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling. Despite a ~30% Bitcoin… — matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) December 8, 2025

Institutional buying is changing market structure

Bernstein’s report emphasizes that the continued and steady net inflows into ETFs are important evidence that institutional buying is outweighing short-term market fluctuations. This trend is also highly consistent with the long-term accumulation behavior of large institutions, such as Strategy (MicroStrategy) once again making massive new purchases of Bitcoin recently. Bernstein adds that even though the price of Bitcoin recently pulled back by nearly 30%, ETF net outflows have remained below 5%, far less than market expectations.

Therefore, Bernstein believes this funding behavior shows that institutional investors now view buying Bitcoin as a “strategic” asset allocation, rather than a short-term speculative target. In other words, institutional participation is strengthening Bitcoin’s bottom structure, making its price fluctuations more resilient compared to past cycles.

This bull market to peak in 2027, BTC price could reach $200,000

In terms of price forecasts, Bernstein has also raised its medium- and long-term targets for Bitcoin. The firm estimates that Bitcoin could rise to $150,000 in 2026 and officially reach the peak of this bull market in 2027, with the price hitting $200,000. Looking further ahead, the potential price ceiling for BTC could reach $1,000,000 by 2033.

Bernstein emphasizes that as ETFs, custody mechanisms, and institutional participation continue to mature in the market, Bitcoin is gradually becoming a mature asset supported by predictable demand. Its price behavior is moving away from the traditional halving cycle framework and is heading toward a more “institutionalized” long-term trend.

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〈Bernstein: The Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Has Ended! Institutional Era Begins ‘Extended Bull Market,’ BTC Tops $200,000 in 2027〉This article was first published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.