Bitcoin's "Realized Market Cap" firmly holds at $1.1 trillion! Analyst: The 2026 market outlook is worth looking forward to

Despite Bitcoin experiencing a decline of over 30% in the past 10 weeks, causing concern among many investors, on-chain data shows that the spark of a bullish trend still remains.

According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin’s “Realized Cap” currently remains firmly at a historical high of $1.125 trillion, indicating that there has not been a large-scale capital outflow from the market, and suggesting that the bull market pattern remains solid.

Unlike the commonly watched “Market Cap” (current price x total circulating supply), this on-chain indicator is more valuable for reference. “Realized Cap” is calculated based on the “last on-chain movement price” of each Bitcoin, removing the influence of short-term speculation, and reflecting the “actual cost basis invested by investors” and “actual capital inflow conditions.”

In other words, when the total market value fluctuates wildly with the price of the coin, the Realized Cap remains high and stable, indicating that holders are reluctant to sell and that there has been no large-scale loss realization.

According to data from blockchain analysis firm Glassnode, even when Bitcoin plummeted over 30% from its October all-time high, the “Realized Cap” not only did not fall but continued to rise during the correction period, until recently stabilizing around $1.125 trillion.

This trend is reminiscent of the scene during the “tariff panic” outbreak in April this year. At that time, Bitcoin briefly dipped to $76,000, but on-chain capital levels did not retreat, and the price rebounded strongly to new highs.

In contrast, during the 2022 bear market, as the price collapsed, investor confidence shattered, and a large amount of chips were sold at a loss, causing the Realized Cap to decline from $470 billion to $385 billion. However, the current market does not show such panic-driven “big sell-offs” or “collective capitulation” behaviors.

Therefore, analysts are beginning to question the so-called “4-year cycle” theory that is revered in the crypto world.

“4-Year Cycle” Narrative Shaken, Surprises in 2026?

Asset management firm Bitwise Europe Research Director Andre Dragosch believes that Bitcoin is very likely to break free from the “4-year cycle” constraints and experience an unexpected surge in 2026.

He explains that against the backdrop of a resilient global economy, continued rate cuts by major central banks, a steepening yield curve, and expanding overall liquidity, such an environment tends to weaken the US dollar, and historical experience shows that a “weak dollar” is beneficial for risk assets like Bitcoin.

In my view, Bitcoin’s current price is seriously undervalued relative to the current macroeconomic environment, comparable to the downturn during the COVID-19 pandemic and the market panic triggered by the FTX collapse. But now, there are no signs of a recession in the US economy; instead, signals of renewed growth can be seen.

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Tags: 2026GlassnodeRealized CapAnalysisCryptoMarketCapPriceInvestmentBitcoinMarketTrend