Near noon on the 20th Taiwan time, the Lighter token contract transferred 250 million LIT, suspected to be preparing for listing. But will this step be too late to catch up with the Perp DEX competition? This article is from CoinW Research Institute.
(Background recap: Aster, Lighter… fierce enemies encircle, Hyperliquid’s siege war)
(Additional background: Market share drops from 80% to 20%, what exactly happened to Hyperliquid?)

Table of Contents

• 1. Where does the controversy over Lighter come from: the dislocation between expectations and information lag
• 2. Pre-emptive pricing under high exposure: why is Lighter regarded as a “quasi-asset”
• 3. Ignoring TGE, has Lighter truly delivered product value?
• 4. After Perp DEX runs smoothly, how else can tokens be designed?
• 5. Returning to Lighter: its “hesitation” may be part of the answer to the problem
• References

Recently, Lighter has become a focal point in discussions about the Perp DEX track. Lighter is actively traded, its points system operates stably, and Coinbase has included it in its token listing roadmap; however, the timing and details of its token issuance remain unclear, leading to market expectations being advanced and key information lagging, sparking controversy. Unlike projects relying solely on incentives, Lighter attracts many long-term users through efficient matching mechanisms and good trading experience, demonstrating strong product value. This has caused the market to start valuing it based on mature asset standards prematurely, amplifying disagreements.

The entire Perp DEX track is at a critical stage transitioning from “incentive-driven” to “intrinsic value generation.” How to design tokens that effectively incentivize users while reasonably reflecting the platform’s real value has become a common industry challenge. Past projects’ buyback and incentive strategies each have their focus, but generally show caution and balance. Lighter’s current restraint on token rhythm and functions partly reflects a rethinking of token positioning in the track. Whether tokens are necessary and how to find a reasonable balance between incentives and value-bearing remain core issues to be solved. Observing Lighter’s development path helps understand the future token design logic and sustainable development direction of the entire Perp DEX ecosystem.

1. Where does the controversy over Lighter come from: the dislocation between expectations and information lag

Recently, discussions about Lighter have surged. On one hand, project-level progress continues to send positive signals: on December 13, Coinbase announced adding Lighter to its token listing roadmap; simultaneously, platform trading volume and points data have expanded, making it one of the most watched projects in the Perp DEX track.

But alongside data and exposure rising, there is uncertainty around TGE and airdrop timing. The current market controversy over Lighter is not about whether it will issue tokens, but because market expectations have been clearly advanced, yet key information for valuation remains unconfirmed. Long-term community expectations exist that Lighter may conduct TGE in December, but the official has not clarified specific timing, rules, or token distribution methods.

Mechanistically, Lighter’s points system has entered a stable operation phase. Users can earn points by depositing funds into the LLP(Lighter Liquidity Provider) public fund pool and participating in contract trading. Currently, Season 2 is underway, with the official setting a relatively fixed points distribution rhythm, allocated based on trading behavior, while reserving the right to dynamically adjust rules. However, as of now, the official has not announced how points will connect to future tokens or TGE, including exchange ratios, distribution structures, or comprehensive Tokenomics.

In actual participation, although the official has not provided a final answer, users generally regard points as an important reference for potential future gains. As participation scales up, this expectation is further reinforced. According to official data, the current Lighter points pool has a TVL of about $690 million, indicating that this system already bears a significant amount of real funds and trading activity. Against this background, the uncertainty around token issuance timing and rules can easily be magnified into uncertainty about potential returns, directly reflected in divergent market pricing and participant sentiment.

Figure 1. Lighter points system. Source: https://app.lighter.xyz/public-pools/281474976710654

Looking at prediction market Polymarket data, the market has not formed a consensus on the timing of Lighter’s airdrop. For example, the probability of “Lighter airdrops on December 29” is about 28%, while “no airdrop in 2025” is about 33%, with probabilities for other dates more dispersed. This structure indicates that the market does not treat the airdrop as a certain event but is pricing multiple scenarios simultaneously.

Figure 2. The prediction on Polymarket for when the Lighter airdrop will be. Source: https://polymarket.com/event/what-day-will-the-lighter-airdrop-be?tid=1766026269827

Regarding valuation predictions after token launch, the market leans toward a positive outlook that “on the day after launch, FDV exceeds $1 billion,” but expectations for higher valuation ranges are more converged. Overall, the market’s attitude toward Lighter is not blindly optimistic; rather, it is conducting early risk-distributed pricing amid unresolved uncertainties.

Figure 3. The prediction on Polymarket for Lighter’s market cap (FDV) one day after launch. Source: https://polymarket.com/event/lighter-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch?tid=1766026452011

In the longer term, community opinions on Lighter’s business model and token design are gradually diverging. Some believe Lighter currently focuses more on trading products, with limited staking, governance, or richer ecological layers; if future token functions do not form a clear value loop with platform trading activity, user activity after TGE and airdrop may decline significantly. This discussion is not a negation of project progress but reflects increasing market concern about long-term sustainability as the Perp DEX track matures.

2. High exposure leading to pre-emptive pricing: why is Lighter regarded as a “quasi-asset”

Over the past year, many on-chain Perp DEX projects have emerged, but few have sustained visibility. Unlike projects relying on high-intensity incentives to maintain data, Lighter has been positioned with high exposure from the start. Coinbase’s integrated web page for Lighter within the super app Base app allows users to discover and use the product directly in Coinbase scenarios. This places it in a potential mainstream trading context, elevating the market’s evaluation standard from “whether the mechanism can run” to “whether it is worth long-term pricing.”

During this process, Lighter did not initially provide a complete token narrative, but its trading data and engagement rapidly expanded. This combination has led the market, before obtaining all key information, to start including it in valuation and cross-project comparison frameworks.

More importantly, Lighter’s emergence coincides with a shift in the overall narrative of the Perp DEX track. Industry focus is moving from early emphasis on mechanism and architecture innovation to a more pragmatic question: whether sustainable, non-incentive-driven real trading demand has appeared. In this context, as long as projects demonstrate “real usage,” even if their business models and token value capture are not fully complete, they are often viewed as “quasi-assets” by the market.

Therefore, the current controversy around Lighter is less about the project’s own pacing and more about a structural dislocation between market expectations and the project’s stage: when the market begins to evaluate a product still in development as if it were a mature asset, disagreements naturally amplify.

3. Ignoring TGE, has Lighter truly delivered product value?

If we temporarily set aside expectations for TGE and airdrops, whether Lighter still holds ongoing discussion value is key to judging whether this project is worth attention.

From disclosed data and actual trading behavior, Lighter shows several critical signals that are not easy to find. First, in perpetual contract trading, Lighter has handled a considerable scale of market activity. According to DefiLlama data, as of December 18, Lighter’s trading volume over the past 30 days is about $256.27 billion, platform TVL is $1.457 billion, and the trading volume / TVL(equivalent capital occupation) is approximately 175.88. In comparison, Hyperliquid and Aster’s trading volume / TVL during the same period are about 49.16(203.84 billion / 41.46 billion) and 169.6(210.0 billion / 13.03 billion) respectively. The volume / TVL ratio reflects how frequently the locked capital turns over within a cycle. In perpetual markets, a higher ratio usually indicates more frequent rolling of funds and high-frequency, incentive-driven trading behavior. From this perspective, Lighter and Aster both show obvious high turnover, indicating strong trading activity, but possibly amplified by incentive mechanisms; Hyperliquid’s trading structure leans more toward capital accumulation and relatively stable risk exposure.

Within this timeframe, Lighter’s perpetual trading volume is in a high zone among Perp DEXs, showing strong competitiveness in trading matching efficiency and system capacity. It’s important to note that current trading activity may still be influenced by incentives and market expectations rather than natural demand. Nonetheless, being able to sustain such volume in a high-frequency, high-leverage environment already represents a significant technical and product threshold, laying a foundation for future testing of genuine demand sustainability.

Figure 4. Lighter data. Source: https://defillama.com/protocol/lighter?perpVolume=true&tvl=false

Second, from the product structure, Lighter’s order book hybrid matching model supports continuous user engagement through efficiency, slippage control, and feedback. This means it is not just a one-time trial product but has been incorporated into some traders’ long-term trading paths. Moreover, exposure via the official Base app page is not just superficial. Current observable trading and activity data show that at least some traffic has transitioned from “exposure” to “behavior.” This distinguishes Lighter from many Perp DEX projects still stuck at narrative and expectation levels.

Because these key steps are already operational, the market demands higher standards from Lighter. When a project proves real usage value, the question shifts from “whether there are tokens” to whether tokens can reasonably support and amplify the existing value.

4. After Perp DEX runs smoothly, how else can tokens be designed?

Following Hyperliquid, Aster, and others, the Perp DEX track has reached a similar stage: when the trading product itself is validated, in what way should tokens “reasonably exist”?

Past projects have explored different directions. For example, Hyperliquid’s token design does not focus on governance or incentives but on how to capture the protocol’s real income. According to official disclosures and third-party data, the platform uses over 90% of the revenue from perpetual contracts and other business to repurchase HYPE tokens on the secondary market, supporting the token supply through burning or removal from circulation. As trading volume and fee scale grow, buyback intensity increases, transmitting the protocol’s operational results to the token level, forming a relatively clear value loop. This path requires a fundamental premise: only when the platform can generate sufficient, stable real trading income over the long term can buyback mechanisms sustain. If activity declines, token value support will weaken.

In contrast, Aster initially expanded user base and trading activity through large-scale airdrops and multi-stage incentives. Its Tokenomics shows about 53.5% of total ASTER supply is allocated for airdrops, trading incentives, and community rewards to bootstrap liquidity. For long-term value, Aster introduced phased buyback and burn mechanisms, with about half of repurchased tokens permanently burned and the rest locked for future incentives. Buyback funds mainly come from protocol fees and the project treasury, not solely from protocol revenue. Unlike Hyperliquid, which continuously uses most fees for buybacks, Aster’s buybacks aim more at stabilizing expectations and adjusting supply-demand, with scale and rhythm not automatically expanding with fee income. This strategy helps boost early attention and participation, but if incentives weaken long-term, trading demand may not be sustained, risking token depreciation.

Under practical constraints, token design in Perp DEX projects generally shows a “conscious restraint”: they recognize the unsustainability of purely incentive tokens and remain cautious about revenue-sharing tokens’ complexity and compliance costs. Without a well-validated, scalable standard path, delaying commitments and retaining flexibility is a more rational choice.

( 5. Returning to Lighter: its “hesitation” may be part of the answer to the problem

If we step back from emotional discussions like “Will there be TGE” or “When is the airdrop,” and view Lighter with a relatively calm perspective, its current state is actually quite clear: it is not a project that relies solely on TGE for valuation, but it has yet to present a sufficiently convincing and market-gradable token narrative.

From a product strategy perspective, Lighter has not used high-frequency, explicit subsidies to quickly accumulate short-term data, but instead, it binds incentives to real trading behavior through its points system. These incentives are deferred, mainly serving to continuously guide trading behavior rather than generate a one-time surge. Lighter is using the already operational trading volume, active users, and steadily growing data to buy the market’s time and patience. In a market environment highly accustomed to using TGE as a milestone, this restraint naturally causes discomfort.

For this reason, disagreements around Lighter are gradually becoming more explicit. For short-term participants, the lack of clear token timelines and yield expectations directly weakens motivation, increasing skepticism; for long-term traders, as long as product depth, matching efficiency, and trading experience remain advantageous, immediate token issuance does not alter their usage decisions. The mismatch in focus between these two groups causes the same project to be evaluated very differently from different angles, further amplifying market divergence.

From an industry perspective, the controversy surrounding Lighter has gone beyond “whether to issue tokens” and touches on the core question of token design for decentralized sustainable trading platforms: in the context where Perp DEX has demonstrated real user and trading demand, is a token necessary? Should its core functions focus on incentives, governance, or more on capturing value and long-term ecosystem building?

This reflects the entire track’s transition from “rapid growth + incentive-driven” to “sustainable value creation.” As a project scrutinized by the market, Lighter’s performance and token strategy will significantly influence the token economic models of the entire Perp DEX ecosystem. Regardless of its final token design and issuance pace, this ongoing discussion about token positioning will continue to shape future project designs and market expectations. For investors and researchers, observing Lighter’s trajectory helps gain insight into how this track can achieve the critical leap from “incentive-driven traffic” to “intrinsic value.”

) References

1. Hyperliquid Diligence Report. Source: https://messari.io/research/deep-research-reports/hyperliquid-diligence-report-fdf9486f-d978-4a6f-980e-ccadc697b120

2. 10 Projects Account for 92% of Token Buyback Spend in 2025: https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/token-buybacks

3. Lighter points system: https://app.lighter.xyz/public-pools/281474976710654

4. The prediction on Polymarket for when the Lighter airdrop will be: https://polymarket.com/event/what-day-will-the-lighter-airdrop-be?tid=1766026269827

5. The prediction on Polymarket for Lighter’s market cap ###FDV### one day after launch: https://polymarket.com/event/lighter-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch?tid=1766026452011

6. Lighter data on Defillama. Source: https://defillama.com/protocol/lighter?perpVolume=true&tvl=false

7. Aster DEX burns 80 million tokens and unveils 2026 roadmap: Key insights and analysis: https://investx.fr/en/crypto-news/aster-dex-burns-80-million-tokens-unveils-2026-roadmap-key-insights-analysis/

8. Aster PERP-DEX Investment Memo: https://insights.blockbase.co/aster-perp-dex-investment-memo

9. Aster Updates ASTER Token Buyback and Airdrop to Boost Token Value: https://www.mexc.co/en-IN/news/149436