Bitcoin Computing Power decreased by 4% this month, and the capitulation wave among miners is spreading; VanEck pointed out that historical data shows that such a cleansing often lays the foundation for the next bull run. (Previous summary: Bitcoin failed to break through 90,000 USD and fell back, Ethereum held firm at 3,000 USD, and the US stock market's Christmas rally rose across the board) (Background Supplement: MicroStrategy announced last week that it has suspended buying Bitcoin: raising $740 million through ATM to replenish cash reserves, while debt and dividends are the immediate concerns?)

Table of Contents

• Computing Power Decline and Cost Pressure: The Digital Thermometer of the Cold Wave
• Historical Backtesting: Bad News Turns Positive Over Time
• Chip reorganization at the low point of the fear index
• Macroeconomic Noise and Risk Boundaries

The winter of 2025 pushes Bitcoin (Bitcoin) mining farms to the brink of shutdown. Prices have fallen 30% from the October high of $126,080, hovering around $88,400, and the sound of high-performance fans in Texas and Kazakhstan's data centers has noticeably diminished. However, this silence does not go unnoticed on Wall Street. Matt Sigel, research director at investment firm VanEck, believes that this “miner capitulation” scenario often marks the time when the market hits its bottom.

Declining Computing Power and Cost Pressure: The Digital Thermometer of the Cold Wave

According to the VanEck report, as of December 15, the overall Bitcoin network computing power decreased by 4% month-on-month, marking the steepest drop since the halving in April 2024. The main reasons include the closure of about 1.3 GW of capacity in China and approximately 10% of computing power shifting to more profitable AI computations. Costs have also tightened, with analysis indicating that the break-even electricity price for the mainstream miner Bitmain S19 XP has dropped from $0.12 per kWh to $0.077 per kWh, a decline of 36%. Many mining farms are facing losses as soon as they power on, forcing them to shut down or sell equipment.

Historical Backtesting: Bad News Turns Positive Over Time

VanEck analysts Matt Sigel and Patrick Bush tracked data since 2014 and found that when Computing Power shows negative growth over a 30-day period, the subsequent 90-day return rate turns positive 65% of the time; if negative growth persists for 90 days, the probability of a positive return in the following 180 days rises to 77%, with an average increase of 72%. Matt Sigel pointed out:

“When inefficient miners exit and cause a decrease in Computing Power, it will subsequently trigger a reduction in mining difficulty, which allows the surviving miners’ profits to recover and also reduces the market sell-off pressure, establishing a bottom for the price.”

Chip restructuring under low Fear Index

The market sentiment indicator has dropped to 16, indicating “extreme fear.” The short-term holder's profit ratio (SOPR) has fallen below 1.0, showing that speculative coins are mostly exiting at a loss. Meanwhile, the technical indicator Hash Ribbon has crossed, which has repeatedly overlapped with price lows in the past. Corporate and sovereign actions are markedly different from those of retail investors: recently, they have increased their holdings by 42,000 BTC, and 13 countries, including Argentina, Japan, and Bhutan, continue to support mining, with chips shifting from high-cost miners to long-term funds.

Macroeconomic Noise and Risk Boundaries

On a macro level, the Trump administration maintains a friendly stance towards cryptocurrencies, but global liquidity is still constrained by the possibility of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Some analysts, such as TradingShot, warn that Bitcoin could potentially dip to $50,000 in the short term. The market may fluctuate between $80,000 and $95,000; however, the high probability historical pattern of miner capitulation has not been broken. As the least efficient production capacity shuts down and some computing power shifts to AI, the remaining network infrastructure becomes more resilient. For long-term investors, the silence of mining farms may signify not just a winter but a silent signal that a new cycle's seeds are beginning to sprout.

As the sound of the fan gradually fades, this wave of cleansing brings an opportunity for cost re-evaluation and capacity upgrade for the Bitcoin system. If the historical rhythm echoes again, miner capitulation may not be the final chapter, but rather the prelude to the next bull run.