Kraken IPO, M&A deals to reignite crypto's 'mid-stage' cycle: fund manager

A potential initial public offering (IPO) next year by cryptocurrency exchange Kraken may attract fresh capital from traditional finance (TradFi) investors.

Bitcoin recorded an all-time high price above $126,000 on Oct. 6, but hasn’t recovered from a $19 billion liquidation event that hit the industry a few days later. At the time of writing, the world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading at $87,015 per coin, down 6% in two weeks, according to CoinGecko.

Still, Dan Tapiero, founder and CEO of 50T Funds, claimed that the Bitcoin (BTC) bull market is "still mid-stage.” He added that Kraken’s IPO and an increasing number of (M&As) may provide the necessary tailwinds to bring new capital from TradFi.

Kraken raised $800 million in funding to reach a $20 billion valuation, the exchange announced on Nov. 18. It reportedly filed for a US IPO earlier in November.

Not all analysts are convinced that the bull cycle will continue. Fidelity’s director of global macroeconomic research, Jurrien Timmer, expects a year of downside for Bitcoin in 2026.

![](https://img-cdn.gateio.im/social/moments-157079e82e-5b9a4b80b3-153d09-6d5686)

Source: Dan Tapiero

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Crypto industry watchers are divided over the bull cycle’s continuation in 2026

Tapiero’s prediction contrasts with the views shared by Timmer, who expects a down year may lead Bitcoin to a local bottom around $65,000.

“Bitcoin winters have lasted about a year, so my sense is that 2026 could be a ‘year off’ (or ‘off year’) for Bitcoin. Support is at $65-75k,” wrote Timmer in a Thursday X post.

![](https://img-cdn.gateio.im/social/moments-e30cb6d482-2c7b875525-153d09-6d5686)

_Source: Jurrien _Timmer

While Bitcoin’s four-year cycle provided the “initial rhythm,” market movements are now dictated by more fundamental drivers, including global liquidity and continued sovereign adoption, according to Jimmy Xue, co-founder and chief operating officer of Axis, an onchain quantitative yield platform managing $100 million in live capital.

"It’s not surprising to see institutional caution as we close out 2025,” as Fidelity’s call for a pullback is a “valid reminder that volatility is still on the table,” Xue told Cointelegraph, adding:

“However, framing 2026 purely as a year of downside might be missing the forest for the trees.”

“If global liquidity continues to loosen, that $75k support might actually end up being a higher low in a longer, super-cycle structure,” he explained, adding that the four-year cycle is “evolving into a broader secular trend” dictated by macroeconomic forces.

![](https://img-cdn.gateio.im/social/moments-43a86c0e8c-197c56bfbd-153d09-6d5686)

Smart money traders top perpetual futures positions on Hyperliquid. Source: Nansen

The industry’s most successful traders by returns, who are tracked as “smart money” traders on Nansen’s blockchain intelligence platform, have also been betting on the market’s short-term decline.

Smart money was net short on all the top cryptocurrencies, except the Avalanche (AVAX) token and the memecoin launchpad Pump.fun’s (PUMP) coin, according to Nansen.

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