A review of the epic options settlement market trends in previous years: volatility significantly amplified, often leading to accelerated unilateral trends

BlockBeats News, December 26 — At 16:00 (UTC+8) today, Bitcoin experienced the largest annual delivery in history, worth approximately $23.7 billion. Historically, market performance following annual or quarterly deliveries is summarized as follows:

On December 29, 2023 (Annual Major Delivery), with a nominal value of about $11 billion and a maximum pain point around $42,000. Before expiration: The market was in a highly suppressed state, with prices trading narrowly between $42,000 and $43,000. After expiration: The “cage” suppressing volatility disappeared, and BTC quickly broke out with increased volume over the following days, initiating a bullish trend early 2024 with a push toward $48,000.

On March 29, 2024 (Quarterly Delivery), with a nominal value of about $15 billion and a maximum pain point around $65,000. Before expiration: The market, influenced by Bitcoin halving expectations, oscillated between $60,000 and $70,000 with high volatility, and active hedging caused short-term suppression. After expiration: Gamma hedging was released, BTC rapidly broke upward, pushing the price above $70,000 just before halving, accelerating the bull market.

On June 28, 2024 (Quarterly Delivery), with a nominal value of about $17 billion and a maximum pain point around $60,000. Before expiration: The market entered a correction phase, with prices oscillating narrowly around $60,000, increased selling pressure, and a clear gamma pinning effect. After expiration: Short-term volatility increased, BTC initially dipped then rebounded, but overall maintained a correction trend without an immediate strong rally.

On September 27, 2024 (Quarterly Delivery), with a nominal value of about $18 billion and a maximum pain point around $62,000. Before expiration: Influenced by Federal Reserve policies, prices ranged between $55,000 and $65,000, with moderate liquidity and hedging compressing the range. After expiration: Post-settlement volatility increased, BTC broke upward, benefiting from rate cut expectations, initiating a rebound toward $70,000.

On December 27, 2024 (Annual Major Delivery), with a nominal value of about $19.8 billion and a maximum pain point around $75,000. Before expiration: During the bull market peak, prices oscillated between $70,000 and $80,000, with call options dominating and weaker upward pressure, but holiday liquidity was thin. After expiration: Hedging release allowed BTC to continue its bull trend, quickly surpassing $80,000, with year-end Christmas rally pushing prices higher.

On March 28, 2025 (Quarterly Delivery), with a nominal value of about $14 billion and a maximum pain point around $85,000. Before expiration: Supported by regulatory positive news, prices oscillated between $80,000 and $90,000, with optimistic sentiment but short-term downside risks, and gamma providing a floor. After expiration: Volatility expanded, BTC broke above $85,000, initiating a strong rally toward $100,000.

On June 27, 2025 (Quarterly Delivery), with a nominal value of about $14.5 billion and a maximum pain point around $102,000. Before expiration: Market sentiment was mixed, with large price fluctuations. After expiration: Short-term correction occurred, but the overall upward trend remained, with no extreme volatility observed.

On August 29, 2025 (Quarterly Delivery), with a nominal value of about $13.8-14.5 billion and a maximum pain point around $116,000. Before expiration: Holiday liquidity was thin, prices oscillated around $110,000-$120,000, and the gamma trap effect intensified. After expiration: BTC briefly dipped below the maximum pain point but quickly recovered, volatility increased but rebounded swiftly, continuing the bull market.

On December 26, 2025 (Today’s Annual Major Delivery), with a nominal value of about $23.6 billion and a maximum pain point around $96,000. Before expiration: Due to the Christmas holiday, market liquidity was thin, combined with rising precious metal prices, causing Bitcoin to trade narrowly between $85,000 and $90,000, with strong gamma hedging suppressing volatility. After expiration: It is expected that the “cage” will disappear, market volatility will significantly increase, and prices may break above $90,000, with some analysts optimistic about approaching $100,000 or even initiating a new year rally.