Where did the funds go after the meme craze subsided? An in-depth analysis of the predicted market tracks and the top 5 dark horses lurking on the BNB Chain

Summary: This article will deeply explore how prediction markets are gradually consuming the attention left by Meme, becoming a new form of speculative infrastructure; as well as a panoramic interpretation of the BNB ecosystem prediction market. Author: Changan, Amelia I Biteye Content Team Meme is receding, and prediction markets are taking over. This is not speculation; it is a major capital migration happening now. When Polymarket obtained full US licensing and received $2 billion in funding from the NYSE parent company, you should understand: The Meme era of trading cats and dogs is over; the era of trading “truth” has officially begun. This article will guide you: Understand why prediction markets suddenly exploded; review the promising black horse projects on BNB chain; and teach you step-by-step how to proactively position and capture early red envelopes. 1️⃣ Why did prediction markets suddenly become popular? The moment market sentiment truly shifts is often not during a crash, but when it becomes numb. You will find: The “wild dogs” are still barking, but you are too lazy to click; the narrative is still flying, but inside you only think: it will all zero out in the end. Meme does not die suddenly. It dies from a structural contradiction: tokens are permanent, but attention is fleeting. When Pump.fun lowers the token issuance threshold close to zero, supply begins to expand exponentially; meanwhile, retail investors’ time, emotions, and capital are linear. The result is clear: hot topics become shorter, and slow declines last longer. At this moment, a new gameplay that looks “less exciting” but is actually more brutal begins to quietly absorb the Meme’s flowing funds. It’s called: prediction markets. 1.1 The more uncertain the world, the more people need the truth In this era of information explosion and fragmentation, media can often only provide timeliness but cannot guarantee accuracy. For example: someone used AI to forge a biography of CZ, which not only had a complete cover outline but was uploaded to Apple Books and other publishing platforms, even fooling media. At that time, the Meme’s market value of that book was driven up to three million dollars. Under Meme’s mechanism, speculators can get news instantly by scanning chains, but they are also easily the liquidity of rumors. Because in the “fast is everything” logic, the cost of verifying authenticity is too high; by the time you verify the information, the price may have already zeroed out. This is precisely the purpose of prediction markets: they introduce the Skin in the Game mechanism, forcing participants to reveal true expectations through real money betting. The logic is simple: Talk is cheap, show me the money. Prediction markets turn “cognition” into “assets.” Starting from an initial state where Yes and No each occupy 50%, participants vote with real money on information; the more buyers, the higher the price, and the real probability of the event is quantified in real-time by price fluctuations. 1.2 From “trading coins” to “trading events”: speculation upgrades The decline of Meme is fundamentally because: asset issuance is too fast, and attention runs even faster. When attention is dispersed, what remains are tokens that are permanent, and slow declines become normal. Prediction markets solve several problems: Clear settlement date: Focus speculative capital on the window when the event occurs. When the event ends, funds are settled, and there are always winners. Solves the problem of Meme’s slow decline. Friendly to speculators: Through clear win/loss outcomes, ensure that users can always get settlement benefits, improving the survival environment for speculators from the bottom up. More concentrated capital: No longer troubled by endless dispersal and same-name tokens, but focus attention on a limited set of important events. This is not just a change in gameplay but an upgrade in the dimension of speculation. You don’t need to be faster than others; you only need to be more accurate. 1.3 Regulatory breakthrough, institutional entry The rise of prediction markets is not only due to a good mechanism but also because they are recognized by regulators. On September 3, this year, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan successfully ended a years-long regulatory tug-of-war. Polymarket broke Kalshi’s long-standing monopoly in compliant markets, proving that prediction markets can break out of the “legal gray area” and transform into transparent, compliant “information derivative markets.” More than a month later, on October 7, NYSE parent ICE invested $2 billion, and prediction markets officially entered Wall Street’s view. This marks prediction markets as a new asset class officially settling into the core of global finance. The compliance breakthrough has completely eliminated legal concerns for institutional capital entry. Prediction markets are rapidly shedding the label of “crypto niche toys,” evolving into a financial infrastructure that quantifies global risks and public opinion, on par with S&P indices and gold prices. As shown in the chart, recent weekly trading volume of prediction markets has experienced an unprecedented exponential surge, with peaks exceeding $4 billion. (Source: Dune)) 2️⃣ Leading and emerging prediction market projects on BNB Chain 2.1 Kalshi: The brave pioneer fighting regulation head-on Before discussing prediction markets, we must pay tribute to Kalshi. If Polymarket relies on settlement, Kalshi is the one that tore open the compliance gap with direct confrontation. Before 2024, US prediction markets were basically in a gray zone, with the biggest uncertainty coming from regulatory attitudes. Kalshi obtained the CFTC designated contract market (DCM) license as early as 2020, becoming the first regulated platform focused on event contracts. Since then, in the approval of political contracts, it fought a prolonged battle with the CFTC: between 2023-2024, the CFTC once banned related contracts; Kalshi sued in court and won, ultimately forcing the CFTC to abandon the appeal in 2025. This victory is regarded by many as a key turning point for the legalization of prediction markets: it’s not gambling but a protected financial derivative market. The cost of compliance seems high, but it brings institutional-level trust and a regulatory moat. Kalshi is the earliest and most mature fully regulated CFTC platform, allowing US institutions and retail investors to legally and directly trade event contracts with USD. Although competitors like Polymarket are gradually re-entering the US market by 2025, Kalshi’s first-mover advantage and strict compliance model still make many see its value. But the price of compliance is self-isolation. Strict KYC, US-only users, operating only within the US “local network.” This weakens its connection with a broader global user base. 2.2 Polymarket: The first-generation king, but not the endgame If Kalshi wins in court, Polymarket undoubtedly wins in the market, with capital providing the answer in real money. This year, its valuation jumped threefold—from a $1 billion unicorn threshold at the start of the year to $8 billion (with a $2 billion investment from NYSE parent ICE), and recent rumors suggest it is seeking a new round valuation of $15 billion. During the US election, it carried massive capital bets. For the “2024 US Presidential Election” prediction pool alone, trading volume exceeded $3.2 billion. Polymarket’s success stems from dual victories in product and compliance: It downplays the “gambling” attribute and emphasizes the informational aspect. During elections, even CNN and Bloomberg cited its odds. It successfully established an authoritative perception, making users feel that betting is not gambling but pricing information. Compared to early prediction markets like Augur, Polymarket optimized user experience with minimal friction—no obscure on-chain interactions, settled directly with USDC stablecoin. It allows Web2 users to enter prediction markets seamlessly. It proactively settled with regulators (CFTC). This “fine” is actually a “ticket” to mainstream acceptance, clearing compliance hurdles and paving the way for US market entry. However, this compliance-focused, head-focused approach has a ceiling. Polymarket’s success is built on a high-control, heavily operational model. While safe, it is highly inefficient. Like a meticulous workshop, heavily reliant on official aesthetics and institutional funds. It performs perfectly for major events like US elections, but when facing more fragmented, high-frequency mass demand, this centralized framework becomes too slow and heavy. It has validated the “0 to 1” of prediction markets, but several core contradictions hindering the industry from “1 to 100” remain unresolved in its model. 2.3 The seven unresolved issues of prediction markets If we peel off the label of Polymarket as a leading prediction market and deeply experience its product, we find many critical problems still exist:

1. Centralized market creation and operation dependence: Due to geopolitical and cultural differences, platforms like Polymarket have a natural “cognitive barrier” for non-English users. Also, current market creation heavily depends on official team screening, leading to resource concentration in highly commercialized tracks. This “centralization” results in niche markets being barren, with many interesting needs in vertical fields ignored due to lack of operation. For example, Chinese-speaking users are unfamiliar with or uninterested in high-liquidity tracks like politics and culture on Polymarket, while niche tracks they understand and are interested in lack liquidity.
2. Order book mode’s liquidity threshold: Mainstream platforms use order book models, meaning each new market needs sufficient liquidity walls; otherwise, small trades cause sharp price swings, damaging user experience and creating a negative cycle of “lack of liquidity → user loss → further liquidity shrinkage.” Leading to poor trading experience for long-tail, niche topics due to initial liquidity shortage.
3. User experience gaps: Besides liquidity, another major issue is poor user experience. For example, in short-term predictions of high-volatility assets like BTC/ETH, market probabilities fluctuate sharply with real-time candlestick prices. Due to time lag between frontend display and on-chain transactions, users placing “Yes” at low probability may find the actual transaction executed at high probability. The probability at execution is not the same as at clicking, which often causes high user churn.
4. Low settlement efficiency: When users finally win after much effort, they find their profits haven’t arrived yet, needing to wait for market settlement. Many markets have very slow “result adjudication.” For example, Polymarket relies on UMA’s oracle, and a disputed market may take days or longer to settle after multiple voting rounds, tying up funds long-term. UMA’s design(Optimistic Oracle) makes tampering with final results a potential risk.
5. Oracle scalability issues: Currently, oracles heavily depend on “manual” (e.g., UMA voters) decentralized adjudication, unable to efficiently handle potentially thousands of permissionless markets in the future. When market numbers explode, this “arbitration system” will be overwhelmed.
6. LP yield uniformity: Not only retail experience is poor, but market makers (LPs) also struggle. Due to prediction market mechanisms, LPs’ profit models are single and risk management is difficult, limiting professional market makers and DeFi capital entry. Also, prediction market participants find it hard to use their positions in other DeFi scenarios (staking, etc.), limiting application scope.
7. Market manipulation: But these are not the worst. The most fundamental challenge is the “root” of prediction markets. Prediction markets aim to measure event truth, but when interests are large enough, participants’ motives can shift from “measuring” to “driving” events, using the market to endorse fabricated “facts.” If market outcomes are ultimately decided by media reports, the best strategy becomes paying off media rather than researching the event itself. The market then ceases to be a “truth discovery machine” and becomes a financial tool legitimizing manipulated “facts.” A typical case is the “Green Dildo” incident at WNBA in August: in Polymarket’s market on “Will there be thrown objects on the court,” most positions favored “No,” making the odds for “Yes” extremely high. Participants found that spending a few tens of dollars on tickets and props, with minimal risk of violation, could manipulate prediction outcomes worth thousands of dollars. 2.4 Where is the new generation prediction market heading? The problems of Polymarket are precisely the best entry points for newcomers. For those without historical baggage, there’s no need to copy a “cautious giant.” The pain points already point the way:

• Moving toward permissionless creation: To address the lack of niche markets caused by official screening, new prediction markets aim to lower creation barriers through algorithm-driven automatic liquidity, enabling anyone to quickly establish prediction events for specific cultural circles (like Chinese niche markets), niche tech topics, or vertical industry trends—truly “anything can be priced.”
• Introducing leverage to improve capital efficiency and attractiveness: To solve the long-standing issues of “high capital occupation and low yield elasticity,” leverage is a key variable: Traditional prediction contracts are essentially full-margin spot trades. With leverage, users can stake minimal margin to gain outsized returns during major events (e.g., 10x leverage predicting Fed rate hikes). This attracts high-frequency speculators and allows institutions to hedge macro risks at lower costs. Markets with high win rates (up to 90%) but very low odds often lack participation interest. Leverage can amplify the volatility of low-odds markets, restoring liquidity to markets that are “high certainty but unprofitable.” While leverage is crucial for capital efficiency, its implementation path in prediction markets is still exploratory. Simple “margin collateralization” has inherent flaws: prediction markets generally have poor liquidity, and their binary settlement mechanism (price can jump sharply from 0 to 1 at settlement) makes smooth liquidation difficult during volatility.
• Deepening vertical specialization: Moving away from “broad and comprehensive” to deep pricing in specific fields, e.g., sports (Football fun), crypto price predictions (Limitless). Vertical platforms attract highly specialized traders, reducing capital dispersion and forming deep order books in core areas, significantly lowering slippage costs for large trades.
• Improving user experience: From “standalone apps” to “traffic aggregators” (like Coinbase, Jupiter). Building prediction markets in-house is costly (regulatory, oracle, odds calculation). Industry is evolving toward “aggregator models”: giants leverage traffic as front-end, integrating underlying liquidity like Kalshi, solving the “no market” problem, greatly enhancing discovery and trading experience. 3️⃣ Overview of prediction market projects in BNB ecosystem Looking at major public chains: Solana is seeking transformation after Meme’s decline (ICM), Base focuses on creator economy; after Yzi labs S2 reveal, BNB ecosystem’s strong support for prediction markets is a clear signal. BNB prediction markets have developed a completely different pattern: recent token issuance prediction markets mostly chose ICO, with Football fun ICO on Legion, only airdropping to 1,000 users; Space chose ICO with no airdrop. In contrast, BNB prediction markets all chose airdrops to reward community. Let’s review some BNB ecosystem prediction projects. 3.1 BNB Chain prediction market “racetrack” @opinionlabsxyz led by Yzi Labs, completed $5 million seed funding, with participants including Echo, Animoca Ventures, Manifold Trading, Amber Group, etc. The platform is growing rapidly, now among the top three prediction markets, transitioning from niche tools to macro financial infrastructure. Users interested in macro trading, DeFi, and event prediction should explore deeply. Recently, Dune published an 88-page industry report, praising Opinion as “a leading example of macro prediction markets.” Total nominal trading volume exceeded $8.2 billion (from $180 million on launch to now), with multiple days surpassing $200 million. @predictdotfun Predict.fun is a native DeFi prediction market on BNB Chain, founded by former Binance Head of Research and PancakeSwap founder @dingaling. Graduated from EASY S2. Unlike other prediction projects, Predict.fun allows prediction positions as DeFi assets, supporting yield, lending, and leverage via on-chain protocols, improving capital efficiency and permissionless liquidity. Currently, Predict.fun has snapshots of addresses with active trading history on BNB Meme, Aster DEX, Polymarket, Limitless, Myriad, Opinion, etc. Users can check eligibility and unlock airdrops through tasks (deposit, invite tweets, complete trading volume). On its first day, it achieved over $10 million in trading volume. @0xProbable, incubated by PancakeSwap and Yzi Labs, is an on-chain prediction protocol offering zero-fee predictions, supporting deposits in any token (auto-converted to USDT), and allowing anyone to launch new markets. Supported by UMA’s Oracle, focusing on sports and crypto price trends, with a points program for users. Officially launched on the 18th of this month, supporting zero-fee predictions. Several real-time event markets are open, such as NBA games (e.g., Grizzlies vs Timberwolves, Bulls vs Cavaliers). @42, a graduate of EASY S2, converts real-world event outcomes into tradable, liquid tokens via Bonding Curve. This design produces high volatility, high liquidity, and fair, transparent settlement. 42 transcends prediction markets, acting more like an “event asset issuance platform.” Founder @Leozayaat emphasizes that 42 is not a traditional prediction market variant but a new asset class, with core mechanisms different from any prediction market or launchpad. Users can buy and sell freely anytime without worrying about liquidity. It creates an event asset issuance platform based on real events, theoretically never “cutting leeks.” This elegant mechanism innovation has the potential to further upgrade the entire ecosystem. The mainnet mechanism has been tested and will launch a new, more beautiful UI at the end of January. Currently, active promotion of event markets in Beta. @Bentodotfun, a graduate of EASY S2, supported by Base (Batches 001 - Second Prize). Prediction markets are truth engines but face challenges like difficulty in discovery, lack of personalization, isolation, and limited profit space. Bento allows users to reorganize global prediction markets and user-generated markets, creating game-like or tournament-style markets, providing better discovery mechanisms for markets and traders. Just like Roblox for gaming: building personalized games with LEGO, inviting friends, creating micro-economies; Bento is doing the same for prediction markets. They believe trading and speculation are new types of games, but also need social-native, user-generated modes for rapid growth. Core team includes co-founders @abhitejxyz and @PratyakshInani, former co-founders of Filament, working together for 5 years. Currently in Early Access testing (not yet officially live for trading). 3.2 Infrastructure layout of prediction markets As mentioned earlier, prediction markets are not just about platform mechanisms; infrastructure also needs innovation. The BNB ecosystem clearly recognizes this: platform improvements alone are not enough; foundational infrastructure innovation is needed. Therefore, some prediction market infrastructure is also being introduced into the ecosystem. @APRO_Oracle: AI-enhanced decentralized oracle platform, focused on providing high-fidelity, reliable off-chain data for cutting-edge ecosystems. Vertically serving RWA, AI agents, prediction markets, DeFi, and other high-growth sectors. Graduated from EASY S1, supported by Polychain Capital, Franklin Templeton (FTDA_US), ABCDE, and others, with multiple funding rounds. The platform has completed over 77K data validations and 78K AI Oracle calls, continuously supporting top RWA, AI, and prediction market projects. Its token $AT is listed on Binance spot, with a current market cap of $28 million and FDV of $122 million. It’s among the leading projects in S1. @soraoracle: A self-sovereign decentralized oracle built on BNB Chain, focusing on providing a true event truth layer for prediction markets. Currently in early development, developers can deploy production prediction markets via its TypeScript SDK + CLI with one click. 4️⃣ Summary of KOL opinions @Dune (on-chain data platform): Prediction markets are not gambling but are becoming the world’s most accurate information network. More accurate than polls and expert surveys, faster than econometric models, clearer hedging than traditional derivatives, and more transparent signals than media reports. Matt Huang (Founder of Paradigm) @matthuang: Prediction markets are the truth-telling machines at a civilization scale, but they are also a way to explore interesting and useful financial exposures with breadth-first priority. Ella (Head of Yzi Labs) @ellazhang516: Prediction is innate to humans, practiced from hunting to AI. Prediction markets built on this have huge potential. The real opportunity is not copying Polymarket but solving its pain points—using faster oracles, seamless user experience, and aggregated liquidity—embedding prediction behaviors into daily scenarios like TikTok, evolving from trading products to social-level truth and consensus infrastructure. BITWU (KOL/4XLabs) @Bitwux: Prediction markets are trending to explode this year, with a long-term logic: when information is priced, probabilities become assets. Prediction markets are resilient in bull and bear markets; gamblers always exist, which is their narrative charm. Jiayi (XDO founder) @mscryptojiayi: The new generation prediction markets show a combination of UGC + Bonding Curve. Unlike Pump.fun’s sentiment mapping, the new paradigm transforms “PVP zero-sum games” into “settleable event outcomes” deterministic games. Winry (KOL) @vonzz6: Based on experience with the three major prediction projects on BNB Chain and personal views, prediction markets on BNB Chain have entered a high-frequency game stage, marking a shift from “single dominant platform” to “multi-dimensional product competition.” Sean (KOL) @Seanzhao1105: Analyzing Binance’s prediction market “race” mechanism, citing Taleb’s theory that fierce competition within BNB Chain is essentially “system evolution through individual sacrifice.” Although this competition may erode data of early projects like Opinion, it builds a very robust, self-iterating prediction system for the entire Binance ecosystem. EWL (KOL) @jeg6322: Comparing five emerging prediction projects, highlighting differentiation as the core competitive advantage: Solana’s @factmach offers the most innovative “subjective opinion” game; BNB Chain’s @predictdotfun relies more on CZ’s social endorsement. TIGER (KOL ) @tiger_web3): Prediction market “race” on BNB Chain, with three project reviews, suggests the current trend is “L2-ization”: projects compete more on background, fame, and ecosystem resources, while demands for pure technological innovation are decreasing. 5️⃣ Step-by-step guide: How retail investors can participate? Prediction markets on BNB Chain are still in early stages. We can accumulate potential rewards through platform usage (usually points, possibly token airdrops in the future). Specific strategies include:

1. For projects like Opinion and Predict.fun already launched, trading volume is the future airdrop, trading is mining.
2. For projects like Bento and 42 still in pre-test, register on the waitlist in advance. Let’s review how to participate:

1. Safe first choice: Opinion Labs Opinion is currently a good choice: visit app.opinion.trade, connect wallet, and accumulate points through market orders, limit orders, providing liquidity, or holding positions (distributed weekly based on activity). Points may be related to future tokens.
2. Zero-fee trial: Probable Probable is more early-stage: visit probable.markets for zero-fee prediction trading (supports any token auto-converted to USDT). Although it currently has no official points system, the website has a points page. Many users participate with small amounts and are active on Discord, expecting points or retroactive rewards later.
3. “Wool gatherers”: Predict.fun Predict.fun is in airdrop phase, based on snapshots of your trading on Polymarket, Opinion Labs, Aster, Limitless, Myriad, etc., but requires certain trading volume to unlock airdrops.
4. New gameplay: 42 Currently in whitelist beta, with innovative mechanism (Bonding Curve for event assets). Use Biteye invite code BITEYE25 for early testing.
5. Mystery gift: Bento Bento is in Alpha Testnet, expected to launch mainnet in early January. Register at waitlist.bento.fun for early access and a chance to win Bento Mystery Box. You can also start by increasing your understanding. @xhunt_ai recently added prediction market modules to its capability model, allowing filtering “prediction markets” in the professional skills ranking on kol.xhunt.ai. 6️⃣ Final words: Prediction markets as a microcosm of the industry From Pump.fun to HyperLiquid, the crypto industry has shifted from mass manufacturing “fat protocols” to “fat applications.” In the past, we obsessed over high-performance public chains and complex L2 architectures, but that was just infrastructure excess. The real value lies in who can carry real trading demand. Prediction markets are the ultimate form of this “fat application”—they do not generate information but provide the most precise pricing venue for fragmented cognition worldwide. Polymarket is just the beginning of this transformation. In the future, prediction markets will become the unchanging infrastructure of the quantized world. Will you continue to gamble in the “pass-the-backet” style, or use your cognition to price the future in the truth market? The answer is at the moment you place your bet. (This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risks; please participate rationally.)