Gold Price Forecast 2026: Bull Run Set to Continue Amid Crypto and Tech Volatility

Gold delivered one of its strongest performances in decades during 2025, surging around 60–70% to multi-year highs. With Bitcoin and tech stocks facing potential consolidation in 2026, analysts see gold’s momentum carrying forward—potentially delivering another year of solid gains.

Gold’s Exceptional 2025 Sets High Bar for 2026

(Sources: TradingView)

Gold’s 2025 rally—the best since 1979—was fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts, robust central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainty, and de-dollarization trends.

The World Gold Council anticipates continued surprises in 2026, with additional Fed easing, U.S. dollar weakness, and heightened risks supporting further upside.

Base-case forecasts cluster around 5–15% gains, while extreme scenarios (global slowdown, aggressive easing) could drive 15–30% returns.

Major banks remain bullish:

• Goldman Sachs: $4,900/oz by end-2026
• Bank of America: $5,000/oz, citing persistent U.S. deficits

Silver Poised for Gains on Industrial Demand

Silver outperformed gold dramatically in 2025, with outsized returns driven by supply shortages and compression in the gold-silver ratio.

(Sources: X)

The Silver Institute warns of widening structural deficits in 2026 from strong industrial demand (solar, EVs, AI) and recovering investment flows.

UBS targets $58–60/oz, with potential for $65; Bank of America sees $65/oz.

After 2025’s explosive run, silver offers attractive risk-reward for continued industrial tailwinds.

Bitcoin: Cycle Extension vs. Potential Pause

Bitcoin hit historical highs in 2025 before retreating, ending the year nearly flat.

Standard Chartered and Bernstein forecast $150,000–$200,000 in 2026–2027, viewing the cycle as elongated due to institutional adoption.

Contrasting views (e.g., Morgan Stanley) warn the traditional four-year pattern may still hold, with the bull peak nearing.

ETF inflows, corporate treasuries, and supply scarcity remain supportive, but tech/AI correlation could drag BTC if risk appetite cools.

Nasdaq 100 and Tech: Strong but Vulnerable to Rotation

(Sources: X)

The Nasdaq 100 gained 22% in 2025, outpacing the S&P 500, fueled by AI capital expenditure.

JPMorgan sees sustained hyperscaler spending (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta) supporting key constituents like NVIDIA.

Upside scenarios push S&P 500 toward 7,500–8,000, implying Nasdaq 100 above 27,000.

However, elevated valuations and momentum extremes raise rotation risks in 2026.

Ethereum: Tokenization as Long-Term Driver

Ethereum experienced higher volatility than Bitcoin in 2025, also closing nearly flat.

JPMorgan highlights tokenization’s potential to reshape finance on Ethereum infrastructure.

Tom Lee (BitMine chairman) predicts $20,000 long-term, with $7,000–$9,000 possible early 2026.

Currency Pairs: Divergent Central Bank Paths

EUR/USD rose 13% in 2025 on dollar weakness. Most institutions expect further gains to 1.20–1.22 in 2026 if ECB holds while Fed cuts.

USD/JPY outlooks split: JPMorgan/Barclays bullish to 164; Nomura/Citi bearish to 140 on carry unwind.

Crude Oil: Oversupply Risks Dominate

Oil plunged ~20% in 2025 on OPEC+ output restoration and U.S. production growth.

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan see downside, with WTI ~$52–$54 and Brent ~$56–$58 averages in 2026 on persistent surpluses.

Gold Price Forecast 2026: Consensus and Scenarios

Analysts overwhelmingly favor gold for steady returns in 2026:

• Base: +5–15% (~$4,800–$5,200 from current ~$4,530)
• Bullish: +15–30% on slowdown/easing
• Drivers: Central bank demand, deficits, geopolitics

While Bitcoin offers higher upside volatility and silver industrial leverage, gold’s combination of defensive appeal and momentum positions it for reliable outperformance in an uncertain macro environment.