After half a year! Ethereum's staking queue has surpassed withdrawals for the first time. Is ETH about to rise?

The Ethereum staking market experienced a sudden reversal at the end of the year, with the amount of ETH entering staking for the first time in six months surpassing the amount exiting, even reaching more than double. This indicator has previously successfully predicted strong ETH rallies. Now, driven by institutions like BitMine making massive purchases, Pectra’s upgrade to improve staking experience, and the DeFi deleveraging trend, it has re-emerged and is expected to become a catalyst for ETH price increases.

ETH Staking Queue “Surges,” Entry Volume Breaks 740,000 ETH

Data shows that the Ethereum validator entry queue (entry queue) has recently skyrocketed, with the current staking amount waiting to enter reaching 745,000 ETH, estimated to require nearly 13 days; in contrast, the exit queue (exit queue) has only 360,000 ETH, with an average waiting time of about 6 days.

Both sides remained close in level on December 27, but after that, the entry queue suddenly shot up vertically. Since staking involves long-term locking and exiting could become selling pressure, this data is also a key indicator affecting ETH price movements.

(Ethereum Exit Queue Hits New High: Over $12 Billion ETH Pending Withdrawal, Waiting Time Up to 44 Days)

The last reversal pushed ETH to new highs. Will the price see another rally?

Abdul, head of DeFi at Monad, pointed out that a similar reversal occurred in June this year, after which ETH’s price surged from $2,800 to nearly $5,000 within two months. He believes that the exit queue is the most direct indicator of selling pressure. Since July, the market has been under the supply pressure from unstaking, but the large supply has been absorbed.

He estimates that about 5% of the ETH supply has changed hands so far, with 70% of that purchased by BitMine. Based on the current pace, he predicts the unstaking queue will be zero by January 3, signaling that selling pressure will subside.

Analyzing Staking Demand Catalysts: BitMine, Pectra Upgrades, and DeFi Deleveraging

The market generally believes that the main driver behind the recent surge in the entry queue is BitMine, the ETH reserve company led by Ethereum bull Tom Lee.

On-chain analysis tool Lookonchain shows that BitMine staked 342,000 ETH in just two days, worth about $1 billion, bringing its holdings to 3.4% of circulating supply.

Meanwhile, Pectra’s upgrade and changes in the DeFi market have also driven staking demand higher. The upgraded staking experience is smoother, and the maximum validator limit has increased, allowing large institutions to deploy substantial amounts of ETH.

On the other hand, the rising borrowing rate on Aave has forced some stETH leveraged cycle positions to be liquidated, causing ETH to flow back from leverage strategies and re-enter staking. These various interactions have added extra momentum to the staking queue demand.

New Year, New Atmosphere for ETH? Lunar New Year Rally Highly Anticipated

As the wave of unstakers cools down, BitMine’s buy-in, and Pectra’s upgrade to improve large holder participation, the supply and demand dynamics of Ethereum are changing. Although short-term ETH prices are affected by the overall market sentiment and remain weak, the significant reversal in staking trends has also sparked market speculation that the next rally may be brewing.

This article, “Half a Year Later! Ethereum’s Staking Queue First Surpasses Exit, Is ETH About to Rise?” originally appeared on Chain News ABMedia.