Investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald: Bitcoin enters "crypto winter" and may continue to face pressure, but institutions are lighting the dawn of industry transformation

U.S. investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald recently released its year-end research report, indicating that the cryptocurrency market may have entered the early “crypto winter” phase of Bitcoin’s historic four-year cycle. However, the report also suggests that while rapid price surges may not occur by 2026, more robust infrastructure and deeper institutional adoption are quietly taking shape. These changes will lay a solid foundation for the long-term development of the crypto industry.
(Background: Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone warns: Bitcoin will first drop to $50,000 next year, then crash to $10,000)
(Additional context: Analyst Luke Gromen: Why I sold most of my Bitcoin at the end of the year)

U.S. investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald recently released its year-end research report, indicating that the cryptocurrency market may have entered the early “crypto winter” phase of Bitcoin’s historic four-year cycle. The report, authored by analyst Brett Knoblauch, notes that Bitcoin has fallen more than 85 days since its peak this year, and may still face downward pressure in the short term, as the market gradually replays the adjustment patterns of past cycles.

Institutional funds are gradually reshaping the crypto market structure

The report points out that Bitcoin is currently trading at around $87,460, only slightly above the average cost basis of large institutional investors. Among them, MicroStrategy (MSTR), the world’s largest Bitcoin reserve company, has an average Bitcoin cost basis of approximately $75,000. Knoblauch warns that if the price further declines and tests this critical level, it could trigger a shift in market sentiment, potentially leading to panic selling.

However, Cantor Fitzgerald emphasizes that this downward correction differs significantly from past cycles. The report believes that the dominant market forces have shifted from retail investors to institutional investors, making a large-scale liquidation or systemic collapse less likely. Although token prices are relatively weak, on-chain developments continue to progress, especially in decentralized finance (DeFi), asset tokenization, and blockchain infrastructure, with no signs of deterioration in fundamentals.

Overall, the report does not adopt a fully pessimistic outlook for the future market; instead, it views the current correction as a necessary step toward industry maturity. Cantor Fitzgerald points out that the deepening participation of institutional funds is gradually reshaping the crypto market structure and enhancing the industry’s long-term stability.

The crypto market is becoming increasingly mature

In terms of specific growth drivers, the report expects real-world asset (RWA) tokenization to become a key trend in the coming years. Cantor Fitzgerald estimates that the RWA tokenization market, which is currently around $18.5 billion, could expand to over $50 billion by 2026, with more traditional financial institutions attempting to adopt on-chain settlement models. On the other hand, even if overall trading volume declines, the market share of decentralized exchanges (DEXs) continues to rise, and products like perpetual contracts are expected to benefit from infrastructure and user experience improvements, maintaining growth.

Regulatory improvements are also viewed as a positive factor. The report mentions that the U.S. recently passed the “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act” (CLARITY Act), which explicitly defines digital assets and states that, once they meet decentralization standards, their spot markets will be regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This framework helps reduce policy uncertainty, attracting banks and asset management firms to participate more actively, and provides clear compliance pathways for decentralized protocols.

Additionally, the rapid rise of on-chain prediction markets is gaining attention, especially in the sports betting sector, where total trading volume has exceeded $5.9 billion. Major platforms like Robinhood, Coinbase, and Gemini are entering the space, introducing more transparent order book trading modes.

Cantor Fitzgerald concludes that while rapid price surges by 2026 are not guaranteed, the ongoing development of infrastructure and deeper institutional adoption are quietly taking shape. These changes will lay a solid foundation for the long-term growth of the crypto industry.