Bitcoin to $32k In January? The 4-Year Cycle Argument That Has Traders Nervous

Bitcoin has tested patience throughout 2025. Instead of a clean continuation higher, the year delivered long periods of sideways action, sharp pullbacks, and failed breakouts that wore down both bulls and bears. Momentum never fully disappeared, but conviction did. For altcoins, the experience was even more painful. Most spent the year underperforming Bitcoin, with rallies fading quickly and liquidity rotating back into majors or stablecoins. That exhaustion is the backdrop for trader Chiefy’s warning. In a recent post, he argued that if the 4-year cycle model still holds, Bitcoin could fall as low as $32,000 in January 2026. It is a bold call, but one rooted in structural comparison rather than short-term news or sentiment. Chiefy’s chart compares the 2021–2022 cycle with the current 2024–2025 structure. In the earlier cycle, Bitcoin traded inside a rising channel and topped near $65,000 and $69,000. Each push above the upper trendline failed, and once the channel broke, price unraveled quickly. Support levels that looked strong on the way up offered little protection on the way down, eventually leading to a deep bear market. On the right side of the chart, the same framework is applied to the current cycle. Bitcoin again moved within a rising channel, posting two major highs near $115,000 and $126,000. Price failed to hold above the upper boundary, and the recent sell-off is framed as the early stage of a larger breakdown rather than a completed correction. From that perspective, the current weakness is not just consolidation, but the beginning of a broader corrective phase.

Source: X/@0xChiefy

The $32,000 target comes from the depth of the previous cycle’s reset. In 2022, Bitcoin did not stop at obvious support zones. It overshot expectations and only stabilized after fully reverting toward long-term mean levels. Chiefy assumes the same behavior repeats, projecting a similar magnitude drawdown that would take Bitcoin back into the low $30,000 range. That said, this is where the argument becomes harder to accept without reservations. A drop from six-figure prices to $32,000 would imply a drawdown exceeding 70%. Historically, moves of that scale occurred under very different conditions. Earlier bear markets followed periods of excessive leverage, thin liquidity, and limited institutional participation. Today’s market structure is more mature, with spot ETFs, deeper derivatives markets, and a larger base of long-term holders absorbing volatility. There is also the psychological factor. Investors who lived through 2022 and the extended grind of 2023 tend to de-risk faster and rotate earlier. That behavior often compresses downside rather than amplifying it. Even though corrections remain possible, especially if macro conditions tighten, a straight-line collapse to $32,000 would likely require a systemic shock rather than a technical cycle repeat alone. None of this makes Chiefy’s warning irrelevant. His core message is about complacency. Bitcoin has a long history of punishing consensus expectations, and cycle symmetry has mattered more often than many like to admit. If 2025 felt unusually draining, it may be because the market has been transitioning rather than trending. A deeper correction in early 2026 remains a realistic scenario. A full reset to $32,000 is far more debatable. As always, the outcome will depend less on one chart and more on liquidity, macro conditions, and how the market responds when key support levels are tested. Read also: Here’s How Much 5,000 XRP Could Be Worth If It Becomes Half as Big as Bitcoin