Maduro’s Fall Turns Long-Shot Polymarket Bets Into Overnight Wins

A U.S. military operation removed Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro from power early Jan. 3, 2026, abruptly resolving a series of high-profile Polymarket prediction markets that had been tracking his potential exit for months. Within hours of the announcement, contracts tied to Maduro’s removal closed at full value, triggering large payouts for traders who had wagered on an outcome most had viewed as unlikely just days earlier.

U.S. Forces Detain Nicolás Maduro

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that elite Delta Force units carried out an overnight raid near Caracas, capturing Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, from a Venezuelan military complex and flying them out of the country. The operation marked the sudden end of Maduro’s grip on power and closed the book on one of the most closely watched political prediction markets of the past year.

According to reports, the raid unfolded during the late hours of Jan. 2 and early Jan. 3, neutralizing Venezuelan military defenses in what U.S. officials described as a rapid and decisive assault. Explosions were reported in parts of Caracas, though the number of casualties remained unclear at the time of Trump’s statement.

Trump said Maduro would face trial in New York on longstanding U.S. charges, including narco-terrorism and drug trafficking, which date back to a 2020 indictment that carried a $50 million bounty. The president added that the United States would temporarily oversee Venezuela’s transition to ensure stability following the removal of its leadership.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the action followed repeated efforts to pressure Maduro to step aside voluntarily after Venezuela’s disputed 2024 election, which Washington and several regional governments rejected as illegitimate. Rubio characterized the operation as the culmination of escalating diplomatic and military pressure.

The capture drew immediate comparisons to the 1989 U.S. operation that detained Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega, another figure accused by Washington of using state power to support drug trafficking networks. Trump echoed that parallel in his remarks, describing Maduro as a central figure in criminal organizations targeting the United States.

Inside Venezuela, opposition leader María Corina Machado welcomed the news, calling it a turning point and pledging to restore order and release political prisoners. Celebrations were reported among Venezuelans abroad, while reactions within the country were more difficult to verify amid communications disruptions.

Critics in the region condemned the unilateral nature of the strike, arguing it violated international law and national sovereignty. Reports note that Venezuela’s governing structure was left in disarray in the immediate aftermath, with no clear succession plan publicly announced.

Polymarket Traders Score Big

The event also sent shockwaves through prediction markets, particularly on Polymarket, where traders had been betting on whether and when Maduro would leave power. Bitcoin.com News reported on this specific bet on Dec. 13, 2025, when the chances of Maduro’s removal started to rise. One flagship contract tied to his removal by Jan. 31, 2026, resolved as “Yes” on Jan. 3 following confirmation of his capture.

This particular bet saw more than $56 million in volume. Prior to the raid, the contract had traded at roughly 5 to 7 cents, signaling broad skepticism that Maduro would be removed in the near term. The overnight resolution pushed the payout to the full $1 per share, generating large gains for traders who entered positions shortly before the operation became public.

Onlookers documented several anonymous wallets that placed large, high-conviction Polymarket bets hours before the announcement, turning modest investments into six-figure payouts. Many of the accounts were newly created and focused almost exclusively on Venezuela-related markets.

“This account, Burdensome-Mix, has existed for only one week and quickly became the biggest ‘yes’ holder in the Maduro out market. Seems pretty suspicious,” one observer wrote on X.

Also read: Ethereum’s Onchain Activity Hits Historic Levels Heading Into 2026

Those trading patterns have fueled online debate about whether nonpublic information influenced activity on the platform. Sports business analyst Joe Pompliano wrote: “A newly created Polymarket account invested over $30,000 yesterday in Maduro’s exit. The US then took Maduro into custody overnight, and the trader profited $400,000 in less than 24 hours. Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it’s encouraged.”

In total, the resolution of the “Maduro out” markets points to how prediction platforms can react faster than traditional news cycles, pricing in outcomes before headlines emerge. For Polymarket traders, the fall of Maduro transformed what had been considered a long-shot wager into one of the most consequential political resolutions the platform has seen.

FAQ ❓

• **What happened to Nicolás Maduro?**Maduro was captured during a U.S. military operation near Caracas and removed from power on Jan. 3, 2026.
• **Who carried out the operation?**Elite U.S. Delta Force units conducted the overnight raid, according to President Trump.
• **How did prediction markets respond?**Polymarket contracts betting on Maduro’s removal resolved as “Yes,” triggering full payouts.
• **What happens next for Venezuela?**U.S. officials said Washington would oversee a temporary transition while Maduro faces trial in the United States.