Bitcoin Close to Breaking Out of Death Cross: Here’s What That Means

In brief

• Bitcoin is bouncing in the new year, giving hope to crypto bulls.
• BTC is now trading above its average price over the last 200 days, a trend not seen since October.
• Bitcoin could now be poised to exit the dreaded “death cross” formation, a bearish pattern that formed in November.

The new year has started off with a bang—and one that initially had nothing to do with crypto. When U.S. Delta Force operators dragged Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro out of his fortified compound in Caracas on January 3, financial markets erupted into chaos. Gold surged above $4,400 per ounce, the S&P 500 rallied on tech momentum, and Bitcoin—after spending weeks trapped in a suffocating range—finally broke free. Today’s price action shows BTC trading at $93,958, up 2.69% on the day. But it’s not the percentage gain that matters here. It’s where that price sits: above the 200-day exponential moving average for the first time since October. If the trend persists, Bitcoin could break free from the “death cross” formation it painted on charts back in November. That’s a big deal for traders who’ve been watching Bitcoin struggle through what was supposed to be a triumphant year under a crypto-friendly Donald Trump administration. 

Despite a pretty bullish first semester last year, Bitcoin ended up with a negative 6% performance in 2025. After a 125% rally in 2024 that sent BTC screaming past $100K, the market sold the news once Trump actually took office. All those policy changes and regulatory shifts were already priced in by the end of 2024, and 2025 ended up being the usual “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario that left crypto investors nursing losses while gold and silver posted their best years since 1979. Traditional safe havens have been crushing it while Bitcoin—the supposed “digital gold”—has struggled to hold $90K. The geopolitical backdrop has provided markets with a mixed bag. With Maduro now detained at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, oil markets are in FUD mode, and investors are piling into anything that looks like a hedge against chaos. But here’s the thing about chaos: it cuts both ways. The same geopolitical uncertainty that’s driving institutional money into gold is also reminding crypto natives why Bitcoin was invented in the first place. When governments can capture sitting heads of state in midnight raids and declare they’ll “run” entire countries, suddenly the idea of an asset that governments can’t easily seize or control starts looking pretty attractive again. Bitcoin (BTC) price: The squeeze finally breaks Bitcoin had been coiling tighter and tighter for weeks, trading in a narrow band between $85,000 and $90,000. Today, it gave in to the upside, starting the week at $91,498 and spiking to its current price of $93,925 with no upside wicks. Today’s candlestick is strong, all body no wicks, decisively breaking its most important resistance.

Bitcoin (BTC) price data. Image: Tradingview

For the first time since October, Bitcoin is trading above the 200-day exponential moving average. That’s the line that separates longer-term bullish structure from bearish drift. When you’re above it, you’re technically in “uptrend” territory. When you’re below it, you’re fighting gravity. The market has been fighting gravity for months. Today’s the first day since then that it’s not. Exponential moving averages, or EMAs, help traders identify trend direction by tracking the average price of an asset over the short, medium, and long term. And here’s the rub: Bitcoin’s EMA configuration is still bearish. When the short-term 50-day EMA falls below the longer-term 200-day EMA, it means bears are in control and the longer-term bull market structure has been broken. That’s known as a death cross formation among traders, and Bitcoin has been in one since mid-November. For what it’s worth, though, common technical indicators that traders tend to rely on may provide some optimism: The Average Directional Index, or ADX, sits at 21.3 showing that the current down trend is weaker now. ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction, and readings below 25 typically signal choppy, directionless action where false breakouts are common. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, measures market momentum on scale from 0 to 100, with readings below 30 signalling oversold and above 70 suggesting overbought. At 65.6, Bitcoin is showing buying momentum without being overbought. At the moment, Bitcoin is in that sweet spot where momentum is building but hasn’t yet reached exhaustion levels that typically trigger profit-taking. So what does all this technical jargon actually mean for your portfolio? It means we’re at an inflection point. The compression that built up over the last few weeks has resolved to the upside. The 200-day moving average has been reclaimed. If—and this is a big if—the market can string together a few daily closes above $95,000 with rising ADX, then Bitcoin could escape its death cross formation and set up what’s known as a “golden cross.” That’s when the 50-day EMA crosses above the 200-day, a pattern that traders view as a major bullish signal for sustained uptrends.

Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.