Hours before Maduro’s arrest, suspicious bets appeared on Polymarket, raising concerns of insider trading. Thirty Democratic lawmakers, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, support legislation to prohibit federal officials from profiting from non-public information in prediction markets.
(Background: U.S. lawmakers propose legislation to ban civil servants from insider trading in prediction markets! Polymarket suspected of leak and planning to arrest Maduro)
(Additional context: Data shows prediction markets had a $10 million early “spoiler” on Maduro’s downfall)

Table of Contents

• The “2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act” officially introduced
• Maduro incident as a catalyst
• Kalshi CEO supports, industry opinions divided
• Evolving regulatory environment for prediction markets

Including 30 Democratic lawmakers such as former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, are pushing for legislation aimed at banning elected officials from betting on political-related prediction markets.

The “2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act” officially introduced

This bill, titled the “Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026,” was formally introduced by New York Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres on Friday, with Pelosi co-leading the effort. The bill would prohibit the following individuals from buying, selling, or exchanging prediction contracts related to government policies, actions, or political outcomes:

• Federal elected officials
• Political appointees
• Executive branch employees
• Congressional staff

Provided that these individuals hold or could reasonably obtain significant non-public information through their official duties. The bill does not introduce new penalties but seeks to explicitly extend existing insider trading standards to the prediction market domain.

Maduro incident as a catalyst

The background for this legislation is the growing concern over insider trading in prediction markets. Previously, a Polymarket account placed a large bet that Venezuelan former President Nicolás Maduro would be ousted before the end of the month, netting $400,000.

Torres explained the rationale behind the bill:

A new Polymarket account placed a large bet on Maduro being overthrown before the end of January 2026, when the market considered the event highly unlikely. A few hours later, U.S. officials announced that Maduro and his wife had been arrested during a nighttime raid coordinated with the Trump administration.

Kalshi CEO supports, industry opinions divided

In addition to Pelosi, supporters include Indiana Democratic Congressman Andre Carson and Michigan Democratic Congressman Rashida Tlaib. The bill has not yet gained Republican support, but Torres hopes GOP colleagues will join.

Notably, Tarek Mansour, CEO of the regulated prediction market platform Kalshi, also expressed support for the bill, stating that his platform has already enforced insider trading bans.

However, there are dissenting voices. Loxley Fernandes, CEO of prediction platform Dastan, believes that insider participation is “less a flaw and more a feature”:

Prediction markets are one of the most effective tools for revealing insider information and maximizing the efficiency and speed of information transmission.

Evolving regulatory environment for prediction markets

Currently, prediction markets remain fragmented in terms of regulation. Polymarket is a blockchain-based platform where all transactions are on-chain, priced in stablecoin USDC; Kalshi is the first prediction market regulated by the CFTC, and recently partnered with CNBC for multi-year exclusive collaborations, integrating real-time probability data into TV broadcasts.

As the influence of prediction markets in U.S. politics and finance grows, this legislation marks a significant shift in Congress’s approach to regulating this emerging industry.