January 15 News, on-chain data analysis firm CryptoQuant pointed out that in the past three months, the Bitcoin derivatives market has shown obvious signs of deleveraging, with open interest significantly decreasing. Some analysts view this as a potential precursor to a new round of bull market recovery.
According to data disclosed by CryptoQuant, since October 2025, Bitcoin derivatives open interest has decreased by approximately 31%. This change is considered a typical deleveraging signal, helping to clear high-risk positions accumulated in the previous market and reducing the impact of chain liquidations on prices.
Crypto analyst Darkfost noted in his research that, based on historical experience, a significant decline in open interest often corresponds to an important cyclical bottom. This structural adjustment can “reset the market” and lay the foundation for a healthier upward trend later on. However, he also warned that if Bitcoin prices continue to decline and fully enter a bear market cycle, open interest may further shrink, indicating that deeper adjustments have not yet ended.
Open interest is usually used to measure the leverage level in the derivatives market. The deleveraging process means that high-risk positions are actively or passively liquidated, helping to reduce the probability of sharp fluctuations in extreme market conditions. Analysts believe that such adjustments are beneficial for long-term trends rather than short-term speculation.
Looking back over the past year, the Bitcoin derivatives market experienced a clear expansion of speculation. Data shows that in 2025, the size of Bitcoin open interest once significantly increased from the previous bull market peak, reflecting rapid growth in leveraged trading. The recent combination of price rebound and decreasing open interest often indicates that short positions are being liquidated or stopped out.
This upward structure is believed to be driven more by spot demand rather than excessive reliance on leveraged funds, thus having a more sustainable advantage. As of now, the spot price of Bitcoin in early 2026 has recorded an increase of nearly 10%.
However, from the overall structure of derivatives, market sentiment remains cautious. Some derivatives research institutions believe that the current trend is more like a passive adjustment to the previous rebound rather than a confirmed structural bull market. In other words, deleveraging provides a more solid foundation for the market, but the true confirmation of a bull market still depends on subsequent capital inflows and further macroeconomic environment cooperation.
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