XRP Will Decouple from Bitcoin This Year: Canary Capital CEO

XRP could be one of the few major cryptocurrencies to break away from Bitcoin price cycle this year, according to Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg.

Speaking on a recent podcast with host Paul Barron, McClurg shared a cautious outlook on Bitcoin. At the same time, he pointed to a different trajectory for assets tied to real-world utility, including the XRP Ledger.

Key Highlights

• Canary Capital CEO says XRP may decouple from Bitcoin as focus shifts to real-world blockchain use cases.
• He expects Bitcoin to fall 20–30% more, arguing it already peaked in October 2025.
• XRP Ledger and Hedera could diverge due to enterprise adoption and tokenization efforts.
• Critics note history shows altcoins often drop harder than Bitcoin during market downturns.

McClurg Turns Bearish on Bitcoin

McClurg said he is bearish on Bitcoin for the rest of the current cycle. In his view, Bitcoin already peaked on October 6, 2025, when its price reached $126,200. Since then, BTC has dropped around 36%, and he expects further downside.

He believes Bitcoin could fall another 20% to 30% over the next six to nine months before reaching a new trough. With Bitcoin trading at $95,700, this outlook points to prices between $65,000 and $77,000 before the end of the year.

As a result, McClurg does not expect Bitcoin to post a new all-time high in 2026, suggesting the market is now in the bearish leg of the cycle.

Most Crypto Follows Bitcoin — But Not All

While McClurg acknowledged that most cryptocurrencies typically move in line with Bitcoin, he stressed that this cycle may be different for a select group of assets.

According to him, a divergence is already forming. He claimed that instead of pure speculation, the dominant theme of 2026 is shifting toward building real-world applications, particularly around the tokenization of real-world assets and stablecoins. He believes crypto assets in this category will decouple from Bitcoin’s moves.

XRP Ledger Positioned for Divergence

Specifically, McClurg highlighted the XRP Ledger (XRP) as one of the protocols best positioned to benefit from this shift. He noted that platforms deeply involved in real-world asset tokenization are likely to decouple from Bitcoin’s broader downtrend.

Alongside XRP, he also mentioned Hedera as another network that could follow a similar path, driven by enterprise-focused use cases rather than market hype.

Modest Growth, Not Explosive Gains

Despite the positive outlook, McClurg tempered expectations. He does not anticipate XRP or similar assets to deliver explosive gains in 2026. Instead, he expects low double-digit price growth for a small group of cryptocurrencies that fall outside Bitcoin’s influence.

In particular, he said these assets could remain flat or post modest gains, while Bitcoin could decline by another 30%.

Essentially, McClurg’s comments suggest that while Bitcoin may struggle in the near term, XRP’s price could chart a more independent path as attention shifts toward real-world blockchain adoption.

Reality Check

Meanwhile, this view is not grounded in history. As historically observed, altcoins tend to decline even more sharply when Bitcoin experiences even slight corrections. This has already played out before.

While Bitcoin’s price dipped 36% from its peak of $126,000 to $80,000 between October and November 2025, XRP saw a price drop of more than 58% during the same period. Specifically, XRP fell from $3.66 in July to $1.52 in October 2025.

On the other hand, when Bitcoin remains relatively stable and moves only slightly, altcoins like XRP tend to benefit significantly. During such periods, they post stronger gains and often surge further when Bitcoin appreciates.

In other words, a 30% decline in Bitcoin, as McClurg suggests, could translate into nearly a 60% crash in XRP’s price. It is also worth noting that many other industry observers remain bullish on Bitcoin in 2026.

For instance, Standard Chartered has said Bitcoin could hit $150,000 this year, with Ethereum reaching $7,500 and XRP potentially climbing to $8. Bernstein and Citi also share similar bullish outlooks for Bitcoin and Ethereum.