All-In Podcast
Translation: Yuliya, PANews
“All-In Podcast” is one of the most popular tech and business podcasts worldwide, hosted by four top venture capitalists and friends. The hosts are: Jason Calacanis (early investor in Uber and Robinhood, podcast host, moderator), Chamath Palihapitiya (billionaire, founder of Social Capital, known as “SPAC King,” sharp opinions), David Friedberg (founder of The Production Board, strong scientific background, called “Science Sultan”), and David Sacks (the first “AI and Cryptocurrency Czar” in the US, Elon Musk’s close friend, co-founder of Craft Ventures, former PayPal executive, recently deeply involved in US politics). In this episode, the four make in-depth predictions about political, business, and tech trends for 2026, covering topics like California wealth tax, Trump economics, AI impact on employment, geopolitics, and specific investment advice.
Below is the detailed transcript of this conversation, compiled by PANews:
Prologue: Escaping California and the Wealth Tax Crisis
Jason Calacanis (hereafter Jason): Welcome back to the world’s number one podcast. David Sacks, everyone is eager to know—how are you adapting since moving to Texas?
David Sacks (hereafter Sacks): I love the weather here—70°F (about 21°C). I finished moving in December, bought a new house, went to the DMV, and signed a lease for the Austin office of Craft Ventures. Everything is settled.
Jason: Chamath, what about you?
Chamath Palihapitiya (hereafter Chamath): We’re planning to visit, but haven’t made a final decision yet.
Sacks: The funniest thing is, when we discussed the California wealth tax in our group chat, Chamath was there acting like, “I’m staying to fight, I won’t leave my home.” Then I get a call from my broker saying she’s helping Chamath find a house.
Jason: Wow! Chamath is doing some “backdoor deals”?
Chamath: I’m just hedging my bets! If you look at those friends of ours who have already left, their combined net worth is about $500 billion. That’s very bad for California’s long-term budget. If you add in those still watching but possibly forced to leave, roughly half of California’s projected taxable wealth could be lost.
Sacks: I predict this (California wealth tax) will be a hot topic all year. They’re collecting signatures—about 850,000 needed to get this proposal on the ballot. If it qualifies in April, it will trigger huge panic, causing many to leave due to risk aversion. Even if it doesn’t pass in 2026, people expect some version to come back in 2028. That’s exactly why I decided to leave.
Chamath: If you’re a startup founder with good ideas, it’s hard to build here. Because once you succeed, holding large illiquid stock, you’d have to pay 5% of your company’s valuation in taxes—this could bankrupt your own company.
Sacks: And what if your company goes to zero the next year? You still owe taxes. Also, one reason Larry Page and Sergey Brin (Google founders) might leave is the proposed super-voting rights clause. This clause states that if you hold super-voting shares, the tax authorities will value your entire stake multiplied by the super-vote multiple. For example, they own 52% of Google, with a market cap of $4 trillion, so their net worth could be considered as $1 trillion each, rather than the actual $200 billion. For them, a 5% tax effectively becomes 25% or even 50%.
Jason: Quick prediction—will this “asset seizure tax” pass?
David Friedberg (hereafter Friedberg): I think it won’t make it onto the ballot.
Chamath: I believe it won’t pass, but it will be on the ballot.
Sacks: Previously, Polymarket predicted a 45% chance of it passing, but after Ro Khanna and Bernie Sanders got involved, it surged to 80%. It can’t be blocked unless: one, the union (SEIU) runs out of money collecting signatures; or two, Gavin Newsom (California governor) negotiates and gets them to withdraw.
Chamath: But if it does get on the ballot, the probability of passing is about 40%.
The Biggest Business Winners of 2026
Jason: Next, let’s talk about business winners. Last year, Friedberg picked robots and autonomous hardware, Chamath chose stablecoins, Gavin picked large companies leveraging AI, I picked Tesla and Google. We all predicted pretty accurately. Friedberg, who do you pick this year?
Friedberg: I have two choices.
- First is Huawei. I believe Huawei’s deep collaboration with SMIC in chips will accelerate, and they’ll outperform Western expectations this year.
- Second is Polymarket. It has evolved from a niche oddity into a platform providing real-time insights on current events. I expect it to explode this year. After partnering with the NYSE, I foresee all exchanges—Robinhood, Coinbase, even Nasdaq—making moves. Prediction markets will become not just markets but news sources.
Chamath: I choose copper. In a world increasingly leaning toward unilateralism and emphasizing economic resilience, we are severely underestimating the gap between global demand and supply for key elements. Among assets likely to soar, copper is the most promising. It’s the most useful, cheapest, most scalable, and conductive material—from data centers to chips to weapon systems, it’s everywhere. At current rates, by 2040, the global copper supply gap could reach about 70%.
Sacks: I think 2026 will be a big IPO year. Many companies will go public successfully, creating trillions in new market cap. Recently, there was concern about the decline in public companies and increased privatizations. 2026 will mark a major reversal of that trend, part of the “Trump Boom.”
Jason: Last year I predicted Google, and this year I choose Amazon. I believe they will become the first “enterprise singularity”—where robots generate more profit than humans. Their autonomous driving unit Zoox is progressing well, and they’re replacing human workers with robots on a large scale. In Austin, we can order anything from Amazon with same-day delivery, thanks to their massive automated warehouses and logistics network.
Sacks: I believe Jason’s judgment on Amazon will be correct in the end, but for reasons unrelated to his explanation.
The Biggest Business Losers of 2026
Jason: After talking about winners, let’s look at losers. Last year, we all agreed on enterprise SaaS (software-as-a-service), and I predicted traditional automakers and real estate. It turned out enterprise SaaS underperformed in 2025, with stocks like ServiceNow, Workday, DocuSign declining. Friedberg, what’s your prediction for business losers this year?
Friedberg: I believe state governments will face huge funding difficulties. As more exposes of waste, fraud, and abuse come out, doubts about their long-term solvency will grow. More critically, the massive unrealized pension liabilities will surface this year, revealing a huge black hole in state finances.
Chamath: I pick the software industrial complex, i.e., companies selling licensed SaaS to US businesses. It’s a $3-4 trillion annual economy, but 90% of revenue is from “maintenance” and “migration” segments. With AI models and tech advancing, I expect these segments’ economic opportunities to shrink sharply. Companies still need software, but incremental revenues will plummet, severely impacting publicly traded SaaS firms.
Sacks: I still choose California. Because of the shadow of the wealth tax and strict regulations, business and capital are fleeing the state. I sincerely hope you’re right—that this bill won’t make it onto the ballot. If it does, there will be a panic-driven exodus.
Jason: My pick is young white-collar workers in the US. I think it’s increasingly hard for them to find entry-level jobs because companies find automating with AI easier than training new grads. I see many companies replacing some repetitive tasks with AI, often performed by recent graduates. This isn’t about young people having no opportunities, but about needing to be more resilient, self-reliant, and skilled in AI tools.
Friedberg: I have a different view. I hear from CEO friends that hiring recent grads is difficult now—not because of AI, but due to cultural issues. Many Gen Z graduates seem lacking in motivation, organizational skills, and executive function. This could be a pandemic-era anomaly or a deeper cultural shift. So, I believe youth employment issues stem from cultural factors combined with AI automation.
Jason: Both are correct. Maybe these young people are spoiled or have wealthy parents letting them loaf. But I also see many companies telling me they can replace the bottom third of tasks, usually done by recent grads.
The Biggest Deal of 2026
Jason: Now, let’s predict the biggest deal of 2026. Sacks, what’s your take?
Sacks: I won’t name specific companies, but I believe advances in coding assistants and tool use will be major breakthroughs. Like the chatbot craze at the end of 2022, this field’s popularity is surging, and I think it will become increasingly important this year.
Friedberg: I think the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be resolved this year. Many economic and political factors are pushing toward stability in the region.
Chamath: I see it not as a specific deal but as a transformation in deal-making: IP licensing will replace traditional M&A. Due to increasing antitrust scrutiny, large mergers are extremely difficult. Companies will turn to large-scale IP licensing agreements to acquire technology and talent. Collaborations like Google with Character.AI, Microsoft with OpenAI, Nvidia with Grok exemplify this. I believe this type of deal will become more common and mature in 2026.
Jason: I think we’ll see a mega-merger exceeding $50 billion, possibly Apple, Meta, Microsoft, or Amazon acquiring AI startups like XAI, Mistral, Perplexity, or Anthropic. Most of these AI companies want to go public independently, but I believe an irresistible offer will emerge. President Trump might instruct the government to “Make M&A Great Again,” which is crucial for US competitiveness.
The Boldest Contrarian Prediction for 2026
Jason: Next, the most fun part—bold contrarian predictions. Last year, I predicted OpenAI would lose its lead, which turned out true; Chamath predicted a banking crisis; Gavin predicted GDP growth over 5%; Friedberg predicted socialism’s comeback. All quite forward-looking. Friedberg, what’s your contrarian prediction this year?
Friedberg: My prediction is based on one premise: Iran will have a revolution, and the Ayatollah regime will fall. But that’s not my contrarian view—I believe it will happen. My contrarian view is: Iran’s fall won’t bring stability to the Middle East; instead, it will trigger more conflicts. Many think Iran is a destabilizing force, but I see it as playing a “stabilizing” role. Once it disappears, other Arab countries (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar) will clash over power and influence, especially after the Palestine “two-state solution” emerges. The Middle East will become more chaotic than anyone expects.
Sacks: My contrarian prediction is: AI will increase demand for knowledge workers rather than decrease it. I’ll cite the “Jevons’ paradox”: as the cost of resources drops, total demand for them actually increases because more use cases are discovered. For example, lowering the cost of code generation will lead to massive software creation; cheaper radiology scans will make imaging widespread, increasing the need for radiologists to interpret AI results. The “unemployment narrative” is wrong—we’ll actually see employment grow.
Chamath: I have two contrarian predictions:
- First: SpaceX won’t IPO but will reverse merge into Tesla. I think Elon Musk will use this to consolidate his two most important assets into one ownership structure, strengthening his control.
- Second: Central banks will realize the limitations of gold and Bitcoin and seek a new, controllable crypto paradigm. To maintain sovereignty, they need a tradable, secure, fully private asset that’s hard for other nations (friends or foes) to spy on. Technologically, it must withstand quantum computing threats over the next 5–10 years.
Jason: My contrarian prediction is: US-China confrontation will largely be resolved. I think this could be a hallmark of Trump’s second term. Both sides will reach a win-win working relationship, not a zero-sum game where one loses.
The Best Assets of 2026
Jason: Last year, Gavin predicted memory chip makers like Micron would soar 230%, Friedberg’s Chinese tech stocks also performed well. This year, what assets do you think will perform best?
Friedberg: I again choose Polymarket. Its network effects are emerging; it’s replacing traditional media and markets, with huge potential.
Chamath: I pick a basket of critical metals. This aligns with my earlier copper logic—under geopolitical tensions and supply chain reshuffling, demand for these basic materials will be rigid.
Sacks: I choose the tech sector’s expansion supercycle. This is part of my “Trump Boom” theory. Also, today, the Atlanta Fed just raised its Q4 GDP growth forecast to an astonishing 5.4%.
Chamath: There are several things people don’t realize:
- First, due to immigration issues, non-farm employment data has been reset, with rapid income growth among low-income groups.
- Second, productivity gains from AI.
- Third, the upcoming tax cuts taking effect in 2026.
All these factors combine into a huge growth engine. Don’t short the US economy—it’s ready to take off. 6% GDP growth isn’t unrealistic.
Jason: In this environment of economic takeoff, potential rate cuts, and people having extra cash, I’m betting on speculation and gambling platforms, including Robinhood, Polymarket, PrizePicks, and Coinbase. People will have more disposable income for betting and speculation.
The Worst-Performing Assets of 2026
Jason: Our predictions last year for worst assets were eerily aligned—mostly pointing to enterprise SaaS and traditional auto/real estate, and that proved correct. Sacks, which asset do you predict will perform worst this year?
Sacks: I think it’s high-end luxury homes in California. Under the ongoing influence of the wealth tax rumors, this market will face enormous pressure. I even hope that if the wealth tax proposal ultimately fails, there will be a “dead cat bounce” so I can unload my properties.
Chamath: I think hydrocarbons, i.e., oil. I believe the downward trend in oil prices is irreversible. Regardless of your climate views, electrification and energy storage trends are unstoppable. They will keep shrinking the effective use cases for oil. I see oil prices possibly falling toward $45 per barrel, not returning to $65.
Friedberg: I think Netflix will be the worst performer (assuming they don’t complete the Warner Bros acquisition), or more broadly, traditional media stocks. Netflix’s content library faces challenges from all sides, and their current terms for content creators (cost plus 10%) are very harsh, discouraging many talented creators from working with them. Without M&A to expand content, they’ll face big difficulties. Traditional media is also challenged by independent creators and citizen journalism.
Jason: I choose the US dollar. Our national debt continues to grow—another $2 trillion expected this year. If President Trump really increases military spending by 50%, that directly adds to our debt. All this will challenge the dollar’s value, which is why people are turning to gold, silver, and even copper.
The Most Anticipated Trends of 2026
Jason: Last year, we looked forward to M&A and IPO revival, rapid AI development, and nuclear energy expansion. What trends are you most excited about this year?
Friedberg: I believe Iran becoming an independent democratic state will be the most exciting trend. The people there, especially the youth, crave freedom, and the economic crisis is fueling this change. It could be the most significant event reshaping the Middle East.
Sacks: I look forward to audits of government spending at all levels. We need to normalize “decentralized DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency)” to show the public where money is going.
Chamath: I anticipate the expansion of “Trumpism.” Regardless of your political stance, as an economic participant—whether running a business, investing in stocks, or engaging in crypto—understanding the shifts in the global economy is crucial. Unilateralism and economic resilience are huge trends, and their outcomes will lead to enormous GDP growth.
Jason: I still stick to last year’s prediction, extending it to 2026: The return of the IPO market king. I believe giants like SpaceX, Anduril, Stripe, Anthropic, or OpenAI will file for IPOs this year. It will ignite the market, a thrilling moment for Silicon Valley, their employees, pension funds, and endowments holding their shares.
The Biggest Political Winner of 2026
Jason: Now, let’s make formal predictions. First, who will be the biggest political winner of 2026? Looking back at last year, Friedberg said young candidates, Gavin said Trump and centrists, Chamath said fiscal conservatives, I said X-generation and millennial figures. Friedberg, who’s your pick this year?
Friedberg: The US Democratic Socialists (DSA). Just as the MAGA movement has taken over the Republican Party, I think DSA is consolidating its hold on the Democratic Party, and this trend will strengthen in 2026.
Chamath: Anyone committed to fighting waste, fraud, and abuse at federal, state, and local levels.** This is an open field, and I believe this political approach will be very effective in 2026.
Sacks: I believe “Trump Boom” will be the biggest political winner. Good economic news is already emerging: inflation down to 2.7%, core CPI at 2.6%, Q3 GDP growth at 4.3%, lowest trade deficit since 2009, layoffs sharply down. S&P 500 keeps hitting new highs, oil prices fall, mortgage costs drop by $3,000, real wages increase over $1,000. I predict by June, we’ll see 75–100 basis points of rate cuts, and thanks to larger standard deductions and tax exemptions on tips and overtime, there will be large-scale tax refunds in April. All these will significantly influence the political landscape next year.
Jason: What’s your GDP forecast?
Sacks: I choose 5%.
Chamath: I think the lower bound is 5%, upper bound 6.2%. If we hit 6%, in the modern world, only China could match, and only during its period of full coordination and dominance over federal, state, and local economies. Achieving this under democracy and capitalism would be remarkable.
Friedberg: I predict 4.6%.
Jason: My prediction is between JD Vance and “The Mamdani Moment”—the moment when someone like New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a young socialist, wins. But I ultimately choose “Mamdani Moment.” He’s only 34, and Democrats seem to think that moving fully into socialism is the easiest way to win in 2026. I believe Trump, by ignoring the needs of American workers, has inadvertently opened space for this route. He’s now more like a new conservative, bombing seven countries this year and threatening to occupy Colombia and Greenland, which disappoints many.
The Biggest Political Loser of 2026
Jason: After winners, let’s talk losers. Last year, Gavin and I both predicted Putin, Chamath predicted progressives, Friedberg predicted neoconservatives supporting war. Sacks, who do you think will be the biggest political loser in 2026?
Sacks: I think it’s moderate Democrats (Democratic Centrism). This is actually the flip side of your prediction that socialists will win. The reasons:
- First, socialist ideology is gaining ground among Democratic base voters (especially young people).
- Second, due to districting, most congressional districts are non-competitive; incumbents face real threats only from left-wing challengers, pushing moderates leftward.
Chamath: The biggest loser in 2026 will be The Monroe Doctrine. I think historians will rewrite it when reviewing Trump’s presidency. There’s a clear “Trumpism” that surpasses Monroe Doctrine. How we view war, our sphere of influence, economic multilateralism vs. unilateralism—all are outdated. Trump’s view of hemispheric dominance, with targeted interventions like fighting drug cartels, controlling immigration, and securing key assets, is a new paradigm. We have more transactional relationships, allowing quick responses.
Friedberg: I believe the biggest political loser will be the tech industry. AI and tech wealth have become targets for both populist wings. The right is divided, and the alliance between tech and MAGA faces populist challenges; the left is hardening due to tech’s alliance with the right. I think the 2026 midterms will be a referendum on the tech sector.
Chamath: Friedberg’s right. I just met with three senior Republican senators yesterday, they’re very disappointed and distrustful of some tech companies and leaders.
Sacks: I think tech’s natural allies are MAGA because they still believe in property rights and innovation. If Democrats turn socialist, they’ll want to reshape your relationship with property rights. The populist right is angry because they remember censorship, de-platforming, shadow bans. Tech companies need to have some “truth and reconciliation” meetings with conservatives. Many companies only did so under Biden’s pressure, and they made a mistake by donating only to left-wing causes.
Jason: I agree with Sacks—2026’s biggest political loser will be moderate Democrats.
Sacks: Jason, you mentioned twice that Trump is a new conservative. I must respond. The characteristics of neoconservatism are: large-scale invasion, long-term occupation, nation-building. Did Trump do these? No. Take Venezuela—his entire operation lasted three hours, no Americans died, it was perfect. We didn’t overthrow the regime but worked with it. That’s a new paradigm, not neoconservatism.
Jason: I admit, Trump’s military actions are very precise and efficient, and our military performed excellently. But things can go wrong. If the operation fails and we take hostages, the discussion would be totally different. We must be cautious.
