Pi Network Price Prediction: Retail investors withdraw 4.24 million coins in a single day, can the rebound hold?

Pi Network Tuesday rebounds 1%, Monday hits a new low of $0.1502. 24-hour exchange reduces 4.24 million tokens. Currently holding at $0.1900 with a 30% rebound. Technical outlook is bearish, EMA downward, RSI at 30 oversold. Break below 0.1919 targets 0.1835 and 0.1632, rebound resistance at 0.2045 and 0.2116.

Retail investors’ 24-hour withdrawal of 4.24 million tokens limits decline

(Source: PiScan)

PiScan data shows that the reserves of PI tokens on centralized exchanges decreased by 4.24 million, indicating a large withdrawal in the past 24 hours. This reflects strong buying interest, limiting the decline of PI tokens, ultimately closing above $0.19. The continued decrease in exchange reserves will ease supply pressure and increase the likelihood of a rebound in Pi Network price forecasts.

The withdrawal of 4.24 million tokens accounts for a significant portion of PI’s daily trading volume. Such large-scale withdrawals usually have two explanations: one, holders transferring tokens to personal wallets for long-term holding, indicating confidence in the project; two, holders preparing to cash out on other platforms or OTC trades. Based on the rebound performance, the former is more likely, because if they were preparing to sell, the price would likely continue to be under pressure.

The reduction in exchange reserves is a positive signal. In the crypto market, increasing exchange reserves usually indicate selling pressure, as holders transfer tokens to exchanges to sell. Conversely, decreasing reserves mean holders are withdrawing tokens, reducing potential sell orders in the market. The net outflow of 4.24 million provides short-term support for Pi Network price forecasts.

However, this withdrawal behavior may also reflect retail investors hedging against price declines. When prices keep falling, holders might withdraw tokens to personal wallets to avoid exchange risks or prepare to move to other platforms for better liquidity. Although this defensive withdrawal temporarily reduces exchange supply, it does not necessarily indicate strong bullish confidence in the price.

Technical bearish signals confirmed by MACD and RSI

(Source: Trading View)

As of Tuesday, Pi Network’s price remains above $0.1900, up about 30% from Monday’s low of $0.1502. This rebound coincides with large exchange withdrawals and avoids breaking below the support at $0.1919. However, from a technical perspective, Pi Network’s price forecast still faces significant pressure.

The downward-sloping 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA) reflect the current downtrend. The 20-day EMA is at $0.2045, and the 50-day EMA at $0.2116, both forming clear resistance above the current price. When the price is below these moving averages and they are sloping downward, it indicates a typical bearish trend setup, and any rebound may encounter resistance near these levels.

Additionally, daily momentum indicators show strong downward momentum. The MACD has reversed below the zero line and crossed the red signal line, with increasing negative histogram bars. This MACD structure clearly indicates selling pressure outweighs buying, with price momentum accelerating downward. The RSI at 30 is near oversold territory, consistent with the recent downtrend.

The RSI at 30 warrants special attention. RSI below 30 is generally seen as an oversold signal, potentially indicating a short-term technical rebound. This explains why PI could rebound from $0.1502 to above $0.19. However, oversold conditions do not mean the downtrend is over, only that short-term selling pressure has been overextended. In a downtrend, RSI may oscillate in oversold zones repeatedly.

Pi Network technical bearish signals

20-day EMA: $0.2045 downward slope (short-term resistance)

50-day EMA: $0.2116 downward slope (mid-term resistance)

MACD: negative divergence, accelerating sell pressure

RSI: 30 near oversold (may rebound short-term but trend remains down)

Based on these technical indicators, although PI has rebounded 30%, this is more likely a technical correction after overselling rather than a trend reversal. Pi Network’s price forecast remains bearish in the short term unless it can break above the EMAs and reverse the MACD structure.

Break below $0.1919 targets $0.1632

If the daily close drops below $0.1919, the downtrend may continue, with support levels at S1 and S2 pivot points, at $0.1835 and $0.1632 respectively. The $0.1919 level is a recent key support and psychological level. Breaking below this confirms the continuation of the downtrend and may trigger stop-losses and panic selling.

S1 pivot at $0.1835 is the first support below. Pivot points are commonly used in technical analysis to identify support and resistance, calculated from previous high, low, and close. S1 is often the first line of defense during a pullback. If $0.1919 fails, PI could quickly drop to $0.1835 seeking support.

S2 pivot at $0.1632 is a deeper support. A decline from $0.19 to $0.1632 represents about 14% drop. This level could be the last defense for bulls; if it also breaks, Pi Network’s price forecast may need to be revised lower. Such consecutive support breaks are common in weak markets.

Rebound resistance at $0.2045 and $0.2116

However, PI’s rebound may face resistance at the 20-day and 50-day EMAs (at $0.2045 and $0.2116). A rebound from $0.19 to $0.2045 implies about 7.6% upside. Breaking this resistance requires increased volume and improved technical signals.

The 50-day EMA at $0.2116 is a stronger resistance. If PI can break above the 20-day EMA and continue upward, the 50-day EMA will be the next test. Only when the price stabilizes above the 50-day EMA can the downtrend be tentatively considered over. Given current technical setup, such a breakout is challenging.

Pi Network’s biggest challenge in price forecast is the lack of clear bullish catalysts. Although decreasing exchange reserves is a positive sign, it alone is insufficient to reverse the overall bearish trend. Unless major positive news emerges (such as new applications, large institutional partnerships, or regulatory breakthroughs), PI may continue to oscillate between $0.15 and $0.21, possibly testing lower supports.

From a risk-reward perspective, current long positions carry high risk. Upside is limited by resistance at $0.2045 and $0.2116, while downside could extend to $0.1632 or lower. This asymmetric risk profile is unfavorable for longs. Investors cautious about Pi Network price forecast may prefer to wait for clear trend reversal signals before entering.