BlockBeats News, January 20 — Traders on the decentralized on-chain options, perpetual contracts, and structured products protocol Derive.xyz believe that the probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 by the end of June is 30%. Dr. Sean Dawson, Head of Research at Derive.xyz, stated: “The options market shows a clear downward skew. As of June 26, the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $80,000 is 30%, while the probability of breaking above $120,000 during the same period is only 19%.”
Recently, due to opposition from ten countries against the US plan to take over Greenland, Trump threatened to impose a 10% tariff on imports from these European countries, reigniting tariff concerns. Bitcoin subsequently fell from $95,000 to $91,000.
Dawson said that geopolitical tensions could lead to deeper declines. “The escalation of geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe (especially around Greenland) increases the systemic risk of a market shift back to high volatility environments, and this dynamic has not yet been fully reflected in current spot prices.” He explained that the option skew indicator, which measures the price difference between bullish and bearish options, remains in negative territory, indicating short-term downside concerns. Activity on centralized derivatives platforms like Deribit also shows the same signals.
On both Derive and Deribit platforms, open interest in put options with strike prices between $75,000 and $80,000 is highly concentrated, reflecting market expectations that prices may decline to the mid-$75,000 range.
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