XRP price targets $3.30? Capital structure shift and whale data reveal potential upward trajectory

January 27 News, XRP has slightly increased over the past 24 hours, but what truly warrants attention are the changes in the underlying capital and position structure. On-chain and ETF data synchronization shows that short-term speculators are exiting, while more patient medium- and long-term funds are beginning to take positions, laying a new foundation for XRP’s price movement.

From the HODL volatility indicator, speculative holdings have clearly contracted. From January 9 to January 26, the proportion of XRP-related ETF positions held for 1 day to 1 week decreased from about 1.5% to 0.76%, and the 1 week to 1 month proportion also fell from 5.71% to approximately 2.07%. In contrast, the holdings for 6 months to 12 months increased from 19.5% to 22.3%, and the 1 to 2-year proportion also saw a slight rise. This structural change generally indicates that “hot money” is retreating while conviction funds are quietly accumulating.

ETF capital flows have also shifted. After a net outflow last week, this week has already turned back to net inflow, indicating a recovery in risk appetite at the institutional level. Coupled with on-chain data, such changes often occur before a noticeable price rally.

The technical outlook also signals subtle clues. Since XRP broke below the 20-day exponential moving average in mid-January, momentum has begun to gradually recover. A few consecutive days of moderate rebound could allow it to retake this moving average. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been rising despite the price decline, forming a classic bullish divergence, suggesting selling pressure is weakening.

Whale activity supports this structural view. Wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP increased their total holdings from about 11.16 billion to 11.19 billion after January 25. Such funds tend to focus more on medium-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations.

Looking at the price path, XRP needs to sequentially break through the $2.05 and $2.20 regions and stabilize above $2.52 to redirect market focus toward higher targets. Once key resistance is overcome, around $3.30 will become an important technical reference point. Falling below $1.76 would break this structure.

Currently, the breakout has not yet occurred, but the combination of capital and momentum is paving the way for the next move.