Author: Alan Chen
An Overlooked Number
If your investment portfolio includes US stocks, gold, Bitcoin, or altcoins, this number might change how you view these assets.
The S&P 500 divided by gold price (SPX:GOLD), currently at 1.45.
Most people don’t pay attention to this number. After all, the stock market is still hitting new highs, account balances are rising, Bitcoin remains high, who cares how it compares to gold?
But Benjamin Cowen cares. He recently released two videos analyzing this ratio and its impact on stocks, gold, and the entire crypto cycle. His conclusion is straightforward: We are at an extremely dangerous historical juncture, and this point will determine what assets you hold in the next 2-3 years.
Why? Because this 1.45 figure has appeared three times in financial history, and each time, the aftermath was unpleasant. More importantly, Cowen based his analysis on historical patterns during midterm election years, providing a clear timeline:
- First half of 2026 (Q1-Q2): Gold may top out
- Second half of 2026 (Q3-Q4): Gold undergoes a significant correction, cryptocurrencies follow to bottom
- 2027-2028: A new cycle begins, with this correction laying the foundation for the next big move
But before this timeline unfolds, there’s a more urgent reality: from 2021 to now, the nominal S&P 500 has hit new highs, but when divided by gold, the ratio has fallen from 2.7 to 1.45. In other words: Over the past four years, the S&P 500 priced in gold has declined by 46%.
Your stock account may show gains, but if measured in gold, you’re actually losing. Your Bitcoin may still be high, but relative to gold, it’s also depreciating. This isn’t a theoretical game; it’s a real change in asset relative value—Cowen calls it “The Bleed.”
And a more critical question: will the key level of 1.45 close below on the monthly chart? If it does, history shows us what’s likely to happen next.
Part One: Historical Validation of 1.45
Three occurrences, three turning points
The ratio of S&P 500 to gold has touched or fallen below 1.45 at three critical moments in financial history:
1929: Rejected at this level, leading to the Great Depression.
1973: Multiple rebounds to this level in the 1960s, but after breaking below in 1973, the market underwent a regime shift. The subsequent 50% correction and a decade of stagflation followed.
2008: Once again broke below 1.45, triggering the financial crisis.
Cowen points out in “A Deeply Concerning Chart for Stocks” that this is no coincidence. Each time this ratio approaches or falls below 1.45, it signals a shift from a stock-dominated cycle to a gold-dominated one.
Now it’s 2026, and we are back at 1.45.
The “Exception” of 2020
Some might say, “Didn’t it also hit 1.44 in March 2020? Why didn’t it crash then?”
Indeed, there was no crash, but at what cost?
The Fed printed $6 trillion, interest rates dropped to zero, and global central banks unleashed massive liquidity. That wasn’t a natural market recovery but a result of intervention.
The question now is: if 1.45 breaks again, does the Fed have the same room and tools? Inflation is not fully under control, interest rates are still high, and debt levels are record-breaking. The rescue costs this time could be higher or even impossible to implement.
Part Two: Rotation is a Misjudgment, Bleeding is Reality
Markets won’t follow your expected script
Many investors believe in a logic: gold rises too much, it will correct, then funds will rotate back into stocks, and stocks will rise again.
Cowen refutes this with historical data.
In 1973 and 2008, after the SPX/gold ratio broke below, there was no “fund rotation.” The reality was: both stocks and gold declined, but stocks fell more.
Cowen’s observation: at the point of ratio breakdown, funds don’t flow from gold to stocks; they flow into cash or other hard assets. Risk appetite drops, investors choose defense over offense.
The Bleed: The ongoing process of relative devaluation
Cowen introduces the concept of “The Bleed”—during gold-dominated cycles, risk assets continue to depreciate relative to gold.
This depreciation doesn’t depend on whether gold is rising or falling:
- If gold rises, stocks may stagnate or lag
- If gold falls, stocks usually fall more
The result: regardless of gold’s own price movement, stocks lose relative value.
This has been the reality over the past four years. The S&P 500, measured in gold, has declined 46%. Investors holding stock funds may see paper gains, but gold holders have fared better.
Part Three: Recession Signals Are Accumulating
Warnings from hiring freezes
Unemployment is rising. Cowen highlights a often-overlooked detail: rising unemployment isn’t just from layoffs, but also from companies halting new hiring.
Based on his data, unemployment among 16-19-year-olds has reached 15.7%, far higher than other age groups. This indicates that new entrants to the labor market face greater difficulties. Companies aren’t necessarily laying off old employees but have stopped expansionary hiring.
This is a classic sign of economic slowdown.
Trends across states
Currently, 27 states have rising unemployment rates. Historically, when all states show rising unemployment, a recession is almost confirmed. Although it hasn’t fully materialized yet, the trend is clear.
Cowen describes the current market as “climbing the wall of worry”—it still looks like it’s rising, but the support is weakening.
Part Four: Gold Has Already Broken Out
Looking at it in reverse: Gold / S&P 500
If you flip the chart and look at gold divided by the S&P 500 (Gold / S&P 500), the signal becomes clearer: Gold has already broken out against stocks.
Cowen demonstrates this in “Gold Breaks out against Stocks.” Gold broke through long-term highs in 2023, retested in 2024, and began accelerating upward in 2025.
This is a classic technical pattern: Breakout → Retest → Continued rise.
Cowen compares this pattern across other assets, finding similar formations in Bitcoin dominance, palladium, Hang Seng Index, and more. It’s not an isolated phenomenon but a widespread trend shift.
Gold’s retest is complete, and according to this pattern, a sustained upward phase may be underway.
Altcoins’ Situation
For crypto investors, the situation is even more severe.
Cowen exited altcoin investments in 2022. His reason: altcoins not only declined relative to Bitcoin but also fell against gold and silver, even hitting new lows.
He emphasizes: “Don’t marry yourself to a single asset class. Trade the market you face, not the one you wish for.”
Altcoin holders have experienced multiple devaluations over the past years: relative to gold, Bitcoin, and even stocks, they have been losing value continuously.
Part Five: The 2026 Timeline
Gold’s Mid-term Correction
Cowen studied the historical performance during midterm election years (2014, 2018, 2022) and found a pattern:
Top in the first half: Reaching a high in Q1 or Q2
Correction in the second half: Significant pullback in Q3 or Q4
Laying the groundwork for the next cycle
If this pattern continues, gold in 2026 might follow:
- Q1-Q2: Continue rising or oscillate at high levels
- Q3-Q4: Major correction, finding a bottom
Cowen predicts: “There could be a sharp decline in Q3, finding a low point, then developing from there into 2027-2028.”
Crypto Follows Gold
Cowen believes that cryptocurrencies will only bottom when gold does.
This means:
- If gold bottoms in Q3/Q4 2026
- Cryptos will also find their lows at the same time
- Then both will start a new cycle in 2027-2028
For crypto investors, this suggests that the best entry points before Q3 of this year might not be here. The real opportunity will come once gold’s correction completes.
Two Possible Stock Market Scenarios
When gold corrects in Q3/Q4, what will stocks do?
Based on “The Bleed” theory, there are two possibilities:
Scenario A: Gold falls, stocks fall more
This mirrors 1973 and 2008. Gold corrects 10%, stocks could correct 30-50%.
Scenario B: Gold falls, stocks stagnate or rise slightly
A milder scenario, but the Gold/SPX ratio still declines, meaning gold outperforms stocks.
In either case, the core logic remains: during a gold-dominated cycle, risk assets continue to depreciate relative to hard assets.
Part Six: What Indicators to Watch
Monthly close is key
Daily and weekly fluctuations are just noise. The monthly close is the real trend confirmation.
If the SPX/gold ratio’s monthly close drops below 1.44, that’s a significant signal. Historically, every time it fell below this level, it led to major corrections or recession.
Currently, the ratio hovers around 1.45, and the monthly close has not yet confirmed a breakdown. But the trend is clear: gold is strengthening, stocks are weakening relative to gold.
Don’t Lock into a Single Asset
Cowen repeatedly emphasizes: Don’t marry yourself to a single asset class.
If you only hold stocks, believing “it will rise long-term,” you might endure a prolonged period of relative devaluation.
If you only hold altcoins, waiting “eventually it will turn,” you might find that moment never arrives.
The market will tell you what it’s doing. Observe, adjust, adapt—don’t cling to beliefs.
Current Market Structure
Based on Cowen’s analysis, the current market shows:
- Hard assets (gold, cash, government bonds) strengthening
- Risk assets (stocks, altcoins, high-yield bonds) depreciating
This isn’t about dumping all stocks for gold, but about recognizing: We are in a regime shift, and past strategies may no longer work.
Conclusion
1.45 is not an ordinary number. It echoes 1929, warns of 1973, prefigures 2008.
Now it’s back.
Benjamin Cowen does not predict an inevitable market crash nor a must-sell-all. But he points out with data: History has never been gentle at this level.
You can choose to believe “this time is different,” or respect historical patterns.
You can continue holding stocks, waiting for rotation, or reassess your asset allocation.
You can ignore 1.45, or see it as a reminder: In financial markets, survival is more important than proving you’re right.
The monthly close will tell us the answer. Until then, stay alert, stay flexible, and respect the data.
Because markets don’t care what you want. They will only show their true nature.
Data Sources:
- Benjamin Cowen YouTube videos “A Deeply Concerning Chart for Stocks” and “Gold Breaks out against Stocks”
- Historical SPX/gold ratio data
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment data
Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available data and historical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Financial markets carry risks; invest cautiously.
This is Alan Chen. See trends clearly with data, protect your principal with logic.
