Will Bitcoin drop below $65,000? Polymarket gives a 72% probability, market sentiment shifts rapidly

February 2 News, after a weekend of significant sell-offs that caused Bitcoin to briefly fall below $75,000, the market sentiment has clearly turned more pessimistic. Data shows that the probability of “Bitcoin falling below $65,000 in 2026” on Polymarket has risen to 72%, with related contract trading volume approaching $1 million. Meanwhile, the implied probability of falling below $55,000 is 61%, and the probability of returning to $100,000 by the end of the year is 54%, indicating a significant divergence between bullish and bearish views.

The shift in sentiment is largely due to the fact that the previous gains driven by Trump’s anticipated victory in the 2024 election have been fully retraced. This downward move also puts Michael Saylor’s Strategy at risk, as Bitcoin’s price has fallen below its average holding cost for the first time since the end of 2023, drawing market attention.

Several analysts attribute this correction to the continuation of the bear market and tightening liquidity in the US. CryptoQuant points out that since falling below the 365-day moving average in November 2025, Bitcoin has been in a bear market channel. Research director Julio Moreno warns that it often takes months to form a bear market bottom, and blindly bottom-fishing carries high risks. Mati Greenspan of Quantum Economics also states that Bitcoin’s core value lies in its decentralized monetary properties, not its price itself.

Raoul Pal, founder of Global Macro Investor, believes that this recent decline is more due to tightening US financial conditions rather than issues inherent to crypto assets. Nevertheless, the market trend contrasts with some institutional optimistic forecasts. Previously, Grayscale predicted Bitcoin could break through $126,000 by mid-2026, and Standard Chartered and Bernstein had set a target of $150,000, but recent expectations have been lowered due to slowed capital inflows.

It is worth noting that Polymarket itself is facing regulatory pressure in multiple US states. The Nevada court has ruled that its contracts constitute unlicensed gambling, and enforcement actions have been taken in Tennessee and other states. Against this backdrop, its price predictions remain an important window into market sentiment.