Analyst: The index indicates the market has entered the "capitulation" phase and still faces further downside risk

BlockBeats News, February 2nd, Analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated, “The Bitcoin Futures Fund Flow Index combines price dynamics with derivatives fund flows (order book volume + open interest changes).”

Since last Friday, the fund flow index has plummeted from around 50 to a critical 7.1%, hitting the lower limit of this index scale, which is also the extreme value in the past month. The ongoing price trend marked since January 28 confirms a persistent bear market. The key point is: since January 30, the index has fallen below the 45% threshold, which, according to the model, indicates entering the bear market boundary.

Historically, a reading of 7.1% usually corresponds to a market surrender zone. To achieve a state transition, the index needs to rebound above 45% and prices must stabilize. Until then, any rebound remains technically within a bear market correction.

Another index—the “Bitcoin Partial Pressure Index”—integrates volatility, funding rates, and leverage levels to form a comprehensive pressure indicator. On the evening of January 31 (Friday), during the sell-off below $78,000, this index soared to a peak of 92.5. Throughout the weekend, the index remained in a “tail risk alert” state—indicating all pressure valves (downward trend + rising volatility + biased fund flows) were simultaneously activated. The current reading of 73 still falls within the “high” zone.

Historically, when this index exceeds 90, it often coincides with local price bottoms. If under renewed pressure, the LSI surpasses 80 again, it would signal the continuation of a waterfall decline.

Both indicators together paint a picture: the fund flow index is at an extreme low, while the partial pressure index is at a peak. This precisely characterizes a market “surrender”—when pressure reaches its limit, the market begins to absorb liquidity shocks.