Analysis: Institutions are overly optimistic about the crypto market, and history suggests that the bottom has not yet arrived.

PANews February 10 News, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on the X platform that the crypto market has stabilized somewhat, with a significant decline in the implied volatility (IV) of major maturities. However, the actual volatility (RV) over the past week remains relatively high, resulting in a record average decrease of 45% in the one-week VRP. Specifically, the data shows a drop from last week’s +20% level to the current -25% level, a rare phenomenon. This indicates that the market is rapidly reducing its volatility expectations, and the pace may be too fast, as Bitcoin’s volatility tends to be highly clustered. Institutions are somewhat overly optimistic about the market, and this recklessness could be very passive if a second wave of decline occurs. The irrationality in the options market has clearly increased, and institutions have been confused by recent market movements. Historically, such situations often indicate that the bottom has not yet arrived.